PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

2014

Regrouping after one week of Patriots training camp

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We’re one week into training camp for the New England Patriots, and just one week away from their first preseason game, so it’s time to take a look at what we’ve learned so far about this edition of the Pats.

It’s hard not to be excited, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where the Pats are as healthy as we could’ve hoped headed into camp. Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly and Will Smith, all coming off major injuries, appear to be on track for the start of the season.

On the back end, the secondary has been as expected with Revis and Browner leading the way. Browner’s attitude and Revis’ high level of play have already seemed to bring a new swagger to the Pats defense that has been missing for a long time.

There have been reports that the Pats have shown a lot of 3-4 looks but I am not reading too much into that. Remember 3-4 vs. 4-3 is really just semantics and the 3-4 has always been Belichick’s teaching base defense of choice.

While the Pats might run some odd fronts (aka three-man lines) it’s not the same defense we saw in the 00’s where all three will be two-gapping. This will remain a hybrid defense and whether or not Rob Ninkovich is standing up or has his hand in the dirt doesn’t make much of a difference.

Really, it’s more of a 2-5 the Pats run anyway.

What really matters most is the sub-package anyway, as the Pats spent 67 percent of their defensive snaps with five-plus defensive backs in 2013. Reports of a Ninkovich-Will Smith-Wilfork-Chandler front are intriguing, but more intriguing will be when Dominique Easley returns. He should make an instant impact and could be a secret weapon should the Pats decide to take their time, keep him on the PUP list and unleash him after Week 6.

Offensively there are still some reasons for concern. Julian Edelman has picked up where he left off in 2013, making spectacular catches and setting the tone on offense. Facing Revis in camp should only push him to be even better.

Kenbrell Thompkins has also had a good start to camp despite some inconsistency in Wednesday’s practice. Danny Amendola has also looked explosive and it seems like these three will be the go-to guys on the outside. Brandon LaFell had a slow start to camp but has picked it up in recent days. We continue to wait for Aaron Dobson to make his return.

Rob Gronkowski should be ready to go by the start of the season, but the Pats are wisely taking their time with him. How much dropoff (if any) can we expect with Gronk returning from multiple injuries? That remains to be seen. But so far it seems like Gronk is still Gronk and should be ready for real contact by mid-August.

The offensive line has been seeing a lot of rotation and with so many versatile guys, the Pats will have a lot of options and flexibility. However it will also making for some tough decisions. Bryan Stork left practice Tuesday and has missed two practices since. His absence could put a magnifying glass on the center competition between 2011 starter Dan Connolly and 2012/13 starter Ryan Wendell.

Perhaps most exciting on offense has been the performance of the running backs, especially rookie James White, who has stood out with explosiveness and pass-catching savvy. He could make a devastation combination with Shane Vereen should the Pats look to employ a two-back passing set.

So far the Pats have seemed to have good luck on the health front and it’s vital that that continues. Stork has been the only significant injury issue, though we are still in the dark as to the severity.

Overall, the defense seems on track to be the best unit we’ve seen since 2007, and probably even better than that older squad. The offense seems to have taken strides since 2013, but questions will remain until the regular season starts. They do seem to have some additional weapons this year that they lacked last year. Can Thompkins keep up his high level of offseason play during the regular season? That’s still a question mark.

Next week’s preseason game will tell us even more about where the Pats are at, but so far, they look primed to make another run at Super Bowl number four. There’s plenty to be excited about once again in Foxboro.

Tuesday Patriots Practice Tweets of Note

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The pads are back on after the team was off from practice yesterday and it sounds like the intensity is starting to pick up. Edelman is having a strong camp, clearly picking up where he left off last year. Nice to see Brandon LaFell make a nice play today after getting off to a slow start last week.

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Safety

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The New England Patriots finally found an answer at safety in 2013 in Devin McCourty, after years of instability and inconsistency at the position. McCourty became just the third player to be named an All Pro at two different positions.

But with the release of Steve Gregory, McCourty will have a new starter next to him in 2014, with second-year player Duron Harmon the favorite to land the role.

But how do the rest of the safeties match up should injuries strike? Here’s our final training camp positional preview with the safeties.

Devin McCourty is one of the top young safeties in the game. Now entering the final year of his rookie deal, the Patriots have reportedly entered into contract talks and for good reason.

McCourty could only get more expensive as he reaps the benefit of having Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner at cornerback.

Duron Harmon was a surprising third-round pick in 2013, but showed consistency and strong tackling skills as a rookie. While he’s not one of the prototypical strong safeties of a past era, Harmon can play on the back end or in the box.

Is he the proverbial “enforcer” that many Patriots fans have been clamoring for since Rodney Harrison retired? No, but the Patriots prefer a balanced back end approach anyway. Harmon has good range and seems like a good fit for Belichick’s style. That’s probably why he drafted him so high, right?

The Pats also brought back Patrick Chung, who spent 2013 with the Eagles. Chung should contribute on special teams and has the demeanor to make an impact in the box as a safety if necessary. Chung gets into trouble when asked to play man-to-man or on the back end. But let him come downhill and make tackles and he’ll deliver some heavy hits. He’s also the perfect kind of off-the-field citizen the Pats love.

Tavon Wilson had some promise as a rookie in 2012 after being thrown into the fire early after Steve Gregory was hurt, but Wilson was relegated to special teams-only in 2013. He’s likely facing a make-or-break season.

Nate Ebner has been solid as a special teams player in his first two seasons, even being asked to occasionally fill in on defense. But that’s not his specialty and he should once again be a special teams mainstay.

Ebner’s most direct competition might come from Kanorris Davis, who saw spot duty in three games as an undrafted rookie who kicked around from the practice squad to the active roster throughout the 2013 season.

There are some promising rookies looking to make an impact as well, including seventh-round pick Jemea Thomas who has good versatility to play a number of different spots in the secondary.

Shamiel Gary and Travis Hawkins were signed as undrafted rookies and will likely need an injury to make the roster. Both are practice squad candidates. Hawkins is out of Delaware but had an impressive pro day.

Projection:

McCourty is the only lock, while most assume Harmon will get the first shot playing next to him. But if Harmon falters or there’s an injury at the top of the depth chart, things could get dicey rather quickly.

Chung is a good third safety, but if he’s thrust into the starting job he would be a target in coverage. 

There’s interesting unknowns who will likely get long looks. The competition between Wilson, Davis, Gary and Hawkins could be competing for one roster spot. Special teams performance might be what matters most.

If Harmon takes a solid step forward in his sophomore season, he and McCourty might make for the best Patriots safety tandem since the Super Bowl years. And their jobs will only be made easier by the high-quality cornerbacks on the roster.

And really, how much does it matter who plays next to McCourty given the talent in the secondary? But as always, the proven depth is only so thick.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle

Defensive Ends

Linebackers

Cornerbacks

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Cornerback

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No other position got the makeover that cornerback did for the New England Patriots this offseason. Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner headlines the 2014 free agent class and instantly give the Pats their best secondary since the dynasty years.

But how will the trickle down effect play out for talented young corners like Logan Ryan and Alfonzo Dennard? And where does Kyle Arrington fit in?

Our training camp preview series continues with a look at a reloaded cornerback group.

Starting with Darrelle Revis, arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, seems like a good place to begin. The Patriots had plenty of battles with Revis from 2007 to 2012, with him being a big part of the Jets going 3-2 against the Pats from 2009-2010.

Revis enters 2014 with something to prove after spending 2013 getting fully comfortable  post-ACL tear. Some think Revis was a little misused in Tampa Bay as well.

Bill Belichick won’t misuse Revis. Now, a full two years removed from his ACL injury, Revis should lay claim to being the top cover corner in the NFL once again and that’s a very good thing for the Patriots.

Revis can effectively take any receiver out of the game and we can expect Bill Belichick will move him around to take away the opposing offense’s strength.

Brandon Browner coming to New England was somewhat unexpected, as Browner will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension. Together, he and Revis give the Pats their most physically imposing cornerback tandem perhaps ever. 

Browner’s superlative height makes him a good tool for the ever-growing array of big X-receivers. This year the Pats will face AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas among others. Browner and Revis will have their work cut out for them, however Belichick divides responsibilities up.

Kyle Arrington will once again return to man the slot, known on the Patriots as the “Star” position, one that has effectively grown into a starter’s role. Arrington is durable and physical and, though oft-maligned, did hold Wes Welker to just 8 catches for 69 yards in two games last season.

Alfonzo Dennard has put his legal problems behind him, however offseason shoulder surgery caused him to miss OTAs. Dennard is a tough pest, but with his lack of size he was powerless to stop Demaryius Thomas in the AFC Championship after Aqib Talib went down.

Dennard could be looking at more of a role in the slot, though he hasn’t seen any time there in his first two seasons. It’s possible he could even be part of a rotation with Browner on the outside depending on the matchups. Most pencil him in as the starter until Browner returns in Week 5.

Logan Ryan might have something to say about that. He led the team with five interceptions in 2013, and showed good awareness playing numerous roles in the secondary. He’s also spent some time studying the safety position this offseason, only further building the value he brings.

Ryan could be a real wild card, not only this season but going forward, especially with Revis on what could essentially be a one-year deal. Is there a world where Ryan’s development and rookie contract allow the Pats to let Revis walk in 2015 instead of giving him a monster deal? Perhaps.

Justin Green saw some time in 2013 but will be hard-pressed to find a roster spot this year. First-year player Daxton Swanson and rookie free agent Malcolm Butler stood out in OTAs but might need an injury to strike at the top of the depth chart to make the squad.

Projection:

Expectations for this group are through the roof and understandably so. The press man coverage the Pats have tried to employ the last two seasons now could be truly special in 2014.

Talib had his injury issues, while Dennard was undersized and those two elements held the Pats defense back from hitting the next level. Sure, when both were healthy on, the Pats shut down some good offenses.

But with Revis and Browner in the fold, that now becomes the weekly expectation.  

The Pats have never had this much talented cornerback depth. Yes, they can play press man, but perhaps more importantly they can mix-and-match coverages and responsibilities to their favor. This is when Bill Belichick is at his best.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle

Defensive Ends

Linebackers

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Defensive End

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The Patriots defensive end group starts and almost ends with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. The two combined to play the most snaps by two defensive ends in the NFL.

Behind them the depth is either coming off injury or largely unproven. In a league where your defense lives or dies by their pass rush, do the Pats have enough horses to control the edges for five-plus months?

Here’s our take on the defensive end group.

Ninkovich and Jones are represent what the Patriots defensive end position has evolved into. Bill Belichick’s defensive ends used to look like Richard Seymour and Ty Warren. Now they’re more like outside linebackers in that old system, but playing mostly with their hands in the dirt.

Ninkovich plays primarily on the left side and is stout against the run. He’s also a timely playmaker and extremely durable. Jones has great length and has put up 17.5 sacks in his first two seasons. Jones’ length and athleticism are his biggest strengths.

Both can play every down, but they really shouldn’t be relied upon quite as heavily as they were in 2013, when combined to play 95 percent of the Patriots defensive snaps.

Michael Buchanan started the season off as the designated pass rusher but hit a rookie wall and was essentially replaced by veteran Andre Carter. Buchanan should develop with a full season under his belt and the Pats would love nothing more than if he retakes the DPR spot and becomes a passing-down terror. Whether or not he can hold up on early downs to spell NInkovich and Jones would be icing on the cake.

That job as the third early-down defensive end will likely go to veteran Will Smith, who had a down year in 2012, was moved to outside linebacker in 2013 and promptly tore his ACL before the regular season started.

Can Smith revive his career in New England? It’s certainly possible, but Buchanan obviously has more long term potential and comes at a bargain since he’s a 7th round pick.

If Smith recaptures the magic from earlier in his career, the Pats defense will be deadly and deep.

Jake Bequette enters his third season after two disappointing years. Bequette was a third-round draft pick and at 6’5", 274 pounds certainly has ideal size. He spent most of his time as a wide-9 pass rusher in college, but those skills have yet to translate to the NFL. The writing is on the wall for Bequette this summer, but the door isn’t quite entirely closed on him due to the lack of depth at defensive end. He just might be one injury away from a roster spot. He’s also one sub-par training camp from being out of a job.

Zach Moore was selected in the sixth round out of Division 2 Concordia where he set a school record for sacks (33). He’s raw, but demonstrated the kind of explosion numbers that intrigue. He might be at least a year away, but could be a dark horse in a wide open field behind Jones and Ninkovich.

Projection:

In a perfect world, the Pats wouldn’t have to run Jones and Ninkovich into the ground again this season. They should hope to find a reliable third option who can play base downs and get after the quarterback on passing downs. 

This might have to be done via committee with a likely scenario being Smith and Buchanan both working in. Ideally, one of them would emerge as a dual threat.

Jones could be primed to step into the spotlight as an NFL superstar this season with the improved secondary behind him. Ninkovich is no slouch either and is really the poster boy for Bill Belichick’s second defensive evolution with the Patriots.

But if injuries were to strike Jones or Ninkovich the Pats could be in big trouble. This is a position they must be wary of, whether it means adding another player via trade at the end of training camp, or throwing Moore immediately into the fire. Depth at defensive end is critical.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Tight End

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With Rob Gronkowski ending the 2013 season on IR once again, most prognosticators figured the Pats would make a move on a tight end, either in free agency, the draft, or both this offseason.

The Pats re-signed Michael Hoomanawanui, but didn’t spend a single draft pick at the position, when most mocks gave them one of Jace Amaro, Troy Niklas, CJ Fiedorowicz or Austin Seferian Jenkins.

The Pats did kick the tires on a few of the injured free agent tight ends but never made a move. What can we expect to see from a lighter-than-expected tight end group this season?

Here’s our preview of a sparse tight end group.

First, the good news. Rob Gronkowski seems on track to be ready to go week one. If Gronk can stay healthy this year (granted a big if given his size and the hits/tackles he takes) the Pats’ need for another impact tight end is significantly less.

You can throw Michael Hoomanawanui out there for your two-tight set, or even James Develin who saw time at tight end in OTAs and you’ll be fine. Or maybe DJ Williams lives up to the potential he demonstrated when he won the 2010 John Mackey Award as the best tight end in college football.

Will it be the Gronk/Hernando show of 2011? No, but that was rare and not the kind of offense you can easily manufacture.

But if Dustin Keller is healthy, he’d make a lot of sense to shore up the F-receiver spot and with Gronk they’d be a potent pairing.

However, there is a lot of pressure on Gronk this year, especially given that he’s coming off an ACL surgery and usually it takes a full season to get back to normal. 

If Gronk once again ends the year on IR, it might make sense for the Pats to not pick up his contract option, as hard as that is to believe. Would anyone object to putting that money toward Darrelle Revis?

But if Gronk does go down again this year, the Pats are right back where they ended last season, without a true threat or blocking force at tight end. Not even Keller would fully fix that problem.

Perhaps one of the two undrafted rookies – Asa Watson or Justin Jones could emerge. Watson is more of an F-tight end who is coming off heart surgery (never a great thing), while Jones has monstrous size at 6’8", 274 pounds, but looked extremely slow in OTAs. 

It’s hard to think either will have an impact as rookies, especially after we were burned so badly by Zach Sudfeld last preseason.

Projection:

No secret here, it’s all about Gronk. If he starts week one and is standing on the field as the final gun sounds for the Pats last playoff game, there’s a very good chance the Pats will be playing in the Super Bowl. If Gronk sustains another major injury, or one of the previous major injuries to his back, arm or knee return, the Pats offense will struggle to replace him and take a big step backwards.

This is a feast-or-famine way to enter a season. There’s a ton on the line for both the player and the team. It will be one of, if not the biggest, storyline to monitor this season.

But with three roster spots open as of this posting, the Pats might still have another move or two to make at the position.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Wide Receiver

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2013 was a year of transition at the Wide Receiver position for the Patriots. They weathered injuries to almost every receiver, save Julian Edelman, who came through as a breakout go-to star of the offense.

Things should be better for the Pats’ aerial assault in 2014, especially if they can stay healthy. With a year of development under their belt, the Pats collection of second-year pass catchers must be counted on to take significant steps forward.

Here’s our preview of the receivers.

We must begin with Julian Edelman, who turned in his first fully healthy season and snagged 105 catches for 1,056 yards, and six touchdowns. The Pats were wise to re-sign Edelman to a four-year deal.

Edelman became one of the few homegrown receivers to blossom in New England, joining the ranks of Deion Branch, David Givens and not really anyone else. It’s all the more impressive considering Edelman was a quarterback in college.

There’s little reason to think that Edelman won’t have another 100-catch, 1,000-yard season if he can stay healthy, but that’s never a given for a fearless competitor like Edelman who makes plays all over the field and in the punt return game.

What would make life even more easy for Edelman is if the other receivers around him progress and draw some attention away from him. Danny Amendola battled a groin injury for all but the first half of the first game of the season, but could be poised to blossom in his second year in the Patriots’ offense.

While many were frustrated that Amendola was hit by the injury bug, he had flashes of brilliance even with a torn groin, including catching the game-winning touchdown against the Browns. Still, zero catches on one target in the AFC Championship was disappointing.

A trio of rookie receivers all flashed at times in 2013. Aaron Dobson was the highest draft pick and has the highest ceiling. His season was derailed just as it looked like he was “getting it” with a five-catch, 130-yard, two touchdown performance against the Steelers.

Dobson would catch just six balls the rest of the season after sustaining a foot injury that would require offseason surgery and keep him out of OTAs. Dobson’s potential as the X-receiver in the offense in undeniable. He has good size and brings a much-needed vertical element. For Dobson it’s just a matter of getting healthy and picking up where he left off against the Steelers. The sooner that happens, the better, but if he continues to miss time he could get left behind.

Kenbrell Thompkins was an undrafted rookie who was one of the standouts of training camp last season. Thompkins has good size and is shifty enough at the line of scrimmage to beat press coverage. Once the regular season started Thompkins looked like a rookie. 

Like Dobson, he still flashed some potential, including the game-winning touchdown catch against the Saints. He also put up six catches for 127 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons in Week Four.

Also like Dobson, he faded as the season progressed and was a non-factor by the playoffs, due at least in part to his own injury. Thompkins has once against emerged in OTAs this spring. This is a positive sign that Thompkins is a legitimate player, and just needs to get more game experience that will slow the game down for him. He’ll push Dobson for the starting X spot in training camp.

Josh Boyce was a fourth round draft pick last season with elite speed, but he didn’t flash quite as much potential as Dobson and Thompkins did. He had just nine catches for 121 yards on the season, catching a pass in just four games. His season ended on IR. His best route to a roster spot might be as a kick returner where he saw time this spring.

The Patriots added veteran free agent Brandon LaFell as well this offseason. LaFell is a superlative blocker and has the kind of size the Pats need outside of Dobson. LaFell has been consistent in his first four seasons and the great unknown is how he will respond playing with Tom Brady. LaFell could end up starting at the X-receiver spot, or cut at the end of training camp – neither would be a surprise.

Behind the main group are seventh-round pick Jeremy Gallon, who is undersized but an explosive playmaker. He could sneak on to the roster, especially if injuries strike at the receiver position. He’ll be exciting to watch in the preseason and should be a fan favorite. If Edelman, Amendola and Boyce avoid injury, Gallon could be headed to the practice squad.

Reese Wiggins, Wilson Van Hooser and Jeremy Johnson round out the group.

Projection:

With depth extremely thin at the tight end position, the Pats could look to more 11 personnel this year, which means multiple wide receivers will see a lot of snaps.

Edelman and Amendola should help keep the Pats offense on time, but for them to truly hit the next level, they need Dobson, Thompkins or LaFell to be an outside and vertical threat.

Doesn’t really matter which of them does it, though Dobson seems to have the most potential on paper and Thompkins has put together two of the best offseasons by a receiver in memory. LaFell might be the fallback option, but his size is certainly a welcome addition.

For the other receivers to get into the mix they’ll have to rely on injuries, which seems likely given the respective track records of those atop the depth chart.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs