Nice breakdown with a lot of mention of Football Outsiders’ metrics, which you’ll find a lot here as well.
The Texans defense and running game should keep things close, but as Phillips noted, the Patriots have too many weapons on offense to keep in check. Between Gronkowski and Hernandez, Welker and Lloyd, and the Patriots’ up-tempo, no-huddle approach, Sunday’s game could be the one where the Texans really feel the losses of inside linebackers Brian Cushing, Tim Dobbins and Daryl Sharpton, as well as nickel corner Brice McCain, to injury. Another X-factor could come on special teams, an area of the game where New England ranked fourth and Houston ranked dead last, according to Football Outsiders.