I finally started to dive in on the draft this week after taking a nice three week somewhat-hiatus from the grind of the blogging hobby. The draft is a whole subset of NFL fans and it’s pretty much Thunderdome, especially on Twitter.
Hoodie help anyone who drops a full mock draft because there will be immediate backlash against pretty much every fake pick you make.
I keep going back to Belichick making fun of meteorologists this season, because draft prognostication isn’t too much different. There are plenty of folks out there who done a ton of great work and research and they deserve credit, and they love this stuff far more than I. But I appreciate their work and I use much of it in putting together my research.
Put it this way, I love the draft, I hate the social media atmosphere leading up to the draft and prefer to stay out of the fray.
At the end of draft weekend you’re left with 8-10 players, plus a few free agents in the week following, and then I find it much more fun to analyze how those players who are actually now part of the team fit. You know, instead of projecting how 300+ guys could possibly fit.
But it’s a long offseason so we all need something to keep us busy, so if the draft if your bag, go for it.
The way I do the draft here on the blog is by putting together a 50 prospect big board and trying to hit as many Patriots picks as I can. You can see the last four years of big boards here.
Then I’ll drop a mock draft the week before the draft. I don’t claim to know much about scouting, but I think I know the Patriots system and the kind of players they look for. In seven years of following the Pats’ drafts I think I’ve learned a lot about the process and how they use the draft.
Here’s how I’ve done:
My goal for this year remains to break 50% on the big board.
Some thoughts as I’ve gotten into the research are that everyone is accurately projecting the Pats to pick a guard (AJ Cann) with their first pick. The Pats mock draft cycle is often in sync for most analysts who know the team and this is no different. Still, a lot can change after free agency, so the biggest rule is to never fall too in love with one prospect.
I don’t think wide receiver or defensive end are huge needs at this point, but there seem to be a lot of players who really fit the Pats’ system. It’s important to think about drafting replacements a year before you need them, and with Chandler Jones entering his final year and Ninkovich on the wrong side of 30, it might smart to snag a big DE now and develop him this year.
Similarly, I think the big nose tackles are extremely intriguing. We’ll see how things play out with Wilfork, but I could see one of the highly-regarded prospects being targeted in the first round there as well.
Another area to look at is linebacker, where the Pats’ depth is razor-thin and that’s before knowing what will happen with Jerod Mayo.
Put it this way, there are quite a few things to play out before March 10th before we can really get a bead on the draft needs. Outside of the long-range needs at DE/DT, interior OL, there’s not a lot we can say definitely at this point.
Still, it’s exciting to have an offseason where I’m not depressed about how it ended. The 2015 Pats will be different, but there’s no doubt, they’ll be very good.
