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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS| AFC Conference Championship Preview

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS| AFC Conference Championship Preview

If you only read one Patriots-Ravens preview make it this one.

Some interesting nuggets for those who don’t have the time or inclination to read this entire opus:

  • We know the Ravens like to use Ray Rice in the passing game, but the Patriots were very good against running backs in the passing game, ranking fourth in DVOA. That success is part of the reason why New England was actually pretty close to average on shorter passes, 15 yards or less through the air. Using the “defense vs. receivers” DVOA*, the Patriots come out with a -3.0% DVOA against these short passes. They allow an average of 6.47 yards per pass, slightly above the league average of 6.22 yards per pass.
  • Many people thought the Patriots pass rush was in trouble when defensive Andre Carter went down with an injury during the Week 13 game against Denver. But the Patriots’ Adjusted Sack Rate has actually improved since then. Including last week’s playoff game, the Patriots have gone from 5.9 percent ASR through Week 13 to 9.9 percent ASR in Weeks 14-19.
  • If you are a believer that teams develop over the course of the season, you’ve got to be a little extra worried about the Ravens in this game. The Ravens defense has simply not been the same since beginning of November. During the first nine weeks of the season, the Ravens defense ranked second against the pass, second against the run, and first overall. Since Week 10 (including the playoffs), the Ravens defense ranks fourth against the pass, 15th against the run, and seventh overall. Those ranks would be even worse if we didn’t include last week’s playoff game, as the Ravens did right the ship a bit against the Houston Texans.

  • Now, here’s a big difference between these two teams. The Patriots were one of the top teams in our special teams ratings this year. The Ravens, after a great year on special teams in 2010, plummeted all the way down to 30th.

  • This game is far from a slam dunk for the Patriots, but a lot of the matchups point their way. It’s not hard for offenses to gain passing yards on the Patriots defense, but the Ravens’ passing game just doesn’t seem to be particularly suited to picking on the Patriots’ greatest weaknesses unless Joe Flacco can hit a couple of deep bombs to Torrey Smith. Ray Rice should have a big day on the ground, but it is hard to outscore Tom Brady and this Patriots offense primarily with your running game.