FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Divisional Round Quick Reads

Great Pats stuff in here, a lot about how the Ravens might try to copy some of the Cowboys’ game plan for Gronk and Hernando.

The Dallas Cowboys may have shown the Ravens how to get the job done back in Week 6. Hernandez and Gronkowski combined for 142 yards in that game. That’s a nice yardage figure, but it came on 21 total targets, a rate of 6.8 yards per target that was the lowest for the duo this season (not counting Weeks 3 and 4, when Hernandez didn’t play). They had 15 receptions on the day, an impressive catch rate of 71 percent. On the other hand, 10 of those receptions gained fewer than 10 yards.

A look at data from Football Outsiders’ Game Charting Project reveals some interesting trends in that game:

Seven of the throws to Gronkowski and Hernandez came with a linebacker or lineman (usually Sean Lee) in coverage, resulting in five completions for 44 yards and one interception.

Seven of the throws came with a cornerback in coverage (most often Orlando Scandrick or Mike Jenkins), producing four completions for 40 yards.

The remaining seven passes were listed with no defender. Twice Gronkowski was uncovered on tight end screens, resulting in gains of 9 and 20 yards.

Four times the primary defender was named as “hole in zone,” and all four balls were caught for a total of 29 yards. And one pass intended for Hernandez was batted down at the line of scrimmage. Three of the six incomplete passes came with Tom Brady under pressure, and a fourth came after Brady scrambled. No defender was credited with a hurry on that play, but Brady rarely leaves the pocket unless under heavy duress.

The Cowboys blitzed Brady with five or more pass rushers only five times. They went with a four-man rush 22 times, and rushed only three on a whopping 17 plays. When we remove the Cowboys’ three sacks from the data, we find that Brady threw to his tight ends 69 percent of the time against a three-man rush, but only 40 percent of the time against four or more pass rushers.