Patriots Gameplan: Week 15 at Steelers

With the Chargers upsetting the Chiefs last night, the Patriots are right back in the hunt for the top overall seed in the AFC. Despite a last-second, depressing loss, at this moment not much has changed in the regular season standings. We’re not dead (in KC) yet.

Regardless of the Chiefs, the Patriots let one slip away on the road last week. This trip to Pittsburgh marks the final chance to put forth on the road the same kind of great team performance that we’ve seen plenty of at Gillette Stadium.

The final two weeks of the season are as easy as they can get in the NFL, so this is really the climax of the regular season. Let’s. Go.

Here’s the gameplan for what the 2018 Patriots need to do to culminate their season appropriately.

Offensive Gameplan

There just isn’t that much mystery about it to me, this Patriots offense is more dependent on a successful ground game than their predecessors. In the past, I’d just shrug if it got into an all-out passing game like Super Bowl 51. The SB52 loss to the Eagles started to show some of the cracks we’re seeing at times now, albeit without Edelman.

Brady-Edelman-Gronk aren’t enough now.  They need Gordon and Patterson for sure (yes, omitting Hogan) but Sony Michel and James White are the lifeblood of making this a balanced offense that finishes with touchdowns. I’d throw Rex Burkhead in there too, though he was invisible against the Dolphins.

This will be on full display against the Steelers, the importance of the ground game. Traditionally the Pats have loved to throw on the Steelers defense and that’s unlikely to change with Pittsburgh’s defense ranking 6th in rushing yards, but they must stay with the ground game.

Managing the third-and-longs and sustaining time-consuming drives is key for a game like this. Really I think it comes down more to the offensive line exerting their will, that’s where it all starts. Not on Burkhead, Michel and White to make something if there’s nothing there.

This game will test the passing offense and even Hogan might have to get involved because Brady has been so good picking Steeler defenses apart. But 30-40 points will be achieved only with an explosive run game.

Defensive Gameplan

My feelings about the defense are as up and down as they are on the field. One week I’m thinking they’re one of the most balanced defenses of the dynasty. The next I’m wondering why they look like the most disjointed. 

I think most of it starts in the middle of the defense, a terrible place to be inconsistent. The secondary has been more consistent, but still chipped in with plenty of surprising blown plays at inopportune times.

With James Conner battling a high ankle sprain, the Patriots get a reprieve. If they get torn up by Stevan Ridley it would be continue a disturbing season-long trend of losing to former players and coaches.

So what will it come down to? The pass rush finishing off Ben Roethlisberger and Stephon Gilmore with JC Jackson to shutdown Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Jason McCourty was terrible and pulled against the Dolphins, he’s been as up and down as anyone this season. Jackson has a lot of Malcolm Butler-like aggression in him and has been making plays on the ball. I think there’s a good chance we see Jackson with help on Brown while Gilmore mans up JuJu.

The recipe for disaster is letting Ridley run wild, forcing the secondary out of their focus on taking away two deadly receiving weapons. Add in a pass rush that can’t bring down Big Ben and the Steelers would move the ball at will.

The recipe for success? The Steelers’ run game is dead in the water and Ben is forced to win throwing to Ryan Switzer, Vance McDonald and Jesse James.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Develin and Mason lead the way – A throwback twist to the Corey Dillon 2004 AFCCG, where the Patriots threw to score then ran to win. It’s not about “establishing” the run, it’s about staying committed to it all game.
2. STOP THE RUN – Roberts, Guy and Brown are the keys to a good start. If they hold up in the middle Pittsburgh will become more and more one-dimensional, playing away from the weakness of the Pats D and into their strength.
3. This is it – The 2018 Patriots’ flaws are obvious — they suck on the road and they’re coming off an embarrassing loss. So here it is, a tough road game that you need to win to be considered a true Super Bowl contender and not one who can only make it if they don’t have to play an away game.
4. Gronk – Gronk has feasted on the Steelers and had a rebound game last week. If the run game is on there’s a good chance we get more Gronk spikes.
5. Win – If they had won last week in Miami it wouldn’t have been perfect. They’ve managed to overcome their road warts before (Chicago). They don’t have to be perfect to make up for the Miracle in Miami, they just have to play the kind of complimentary all-around game they’ve put forth at home.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Steelers 27