Eight weeks from today we’ll be getting ready to hear how the Patriots have traded the 33rd overall pick for a 2012 first rounder, and half of Patriots nation will be apoplectic because player x is still available.
The combine has provided some interesting details about the prospects and we’re slowly formulating our Patriots big board which will be a ranking by round of just the prospects we think the Pats are considering.
Unlike a mock draft this will be a broad picture of potential draftees, and our goal is to get 75% of them.
Right now the number one most popular guy the mocks have the Pats taking at 17 is JJ Watt from Wisconsin. Though lately it seems like he’s climbing a bit after a great performance at the combine. This often happens with juniors who decide to come out late, which leaves scouts scrambling to get up to speed on them.
If I had to make a broad prediction at this point it would be that the Pats will take two players in the first round, one will be a defensive lineman, the other will be an offensive lineman. These are the two areas that are deepest in this draft, and two areas where the Patriots need a young influx of talent.
While there are a few potential five-techniques, there are a plethora of huge, versatile offensive lineman. For all the talk of this being a defensive end-rich draft the offensive lineman, especially in the mold the Patriots like, are right there with them.
I’ve slowly become skeptical of a lot of the first round-projected OLB conversion guys like Aldon Smith, Akeem Ayers and Justin Houston. Of the bunch I’m probably most interested in Houston at this point as he was a durable starter in the SEC, seems fluid in space, and seems like he has the necessary toughness.
Aldon Smith will need time to develop, and I’m not discounting him because of this, because with a young defense the Patriots could definitely have some time to let him grow, but I’m just not sold yet that he has the FBI to handle the BBD (Bill Belichick Defense). Maybe he does. We have no way of knowing. But my instinct based on interviews and film make me lean towards no.
I continue to be high on 2nd/3rd day guys like Brooks Reed and Cliff Matthews as the OLB conversion project guys. Lineman are just the safer first round picks.