Some really interesting numbers from ESPNBoston.com yesterday and I think they’re worth sharing here.
In the Nov. 16 meeting between the teams, Tom Brady faced the blitz on a season-high 53.5 percent of his dropbacks. He was 11-of-16 against the blitz, converting 11 first downs while averaging 11.0 yards per attempt. Brady had the best Total QBR this season (including playoffs) when facing a blitz – 87.6. Protection and receivers getting open quickly has been a big part of that, as he was sacked on only 1.8 percent of his dropbacks when facing a blitz.
In contrast to the Colts, the Patriots have only blitzed on 20.8 percent of opponent dropbacks this season, which is the second lowest rate in the NFL. The team’s blitz rate has dropped nearly every year over a six-season snapshot (including playoffs).
- 2014: 20.8
- 2013: 23.9
- 2012: 24.7
- 2011: 24.7
- 2010: 26.8
- 2009: 39.4
Blitz rate is such a fascinating stat. Some might think you need to blitz more to get more pressure, but more often a high blitz rate signifies problems in your defense, whether they’re in coverage or getting to the QB with only your front four.
So I don’t find it surprising that as the Patriots defense has been rebuilt from 2009, really Year Zero after the turnover from the Dynasty Defense, the blitz rate has dropped.
Now the Patriots have been able to get better, but not really great, pressure from guys like Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Of course, it can always be better, but in a perfect world you’d never have to blitz at all.
Now the Pats pick their spots with well-timed slot corner blitzes or with their versatile linebackers Collins and Hightower.
As for the Colts this weekend, I’d expect we won’t see quite as much blitzing against Brady. Rex Ryan’s game plan, that has been consistently effective except for a couple times, has been more about deception and coverage than blitzing.
He’ll overload one side, then bring a blitz from the other. Or show pressure and drop all but two guys into coverage. If the Colts are smart they’ll go that route, because no one is better than picking apart a blitz than Brady, as they should’ve learned in Week 11.