FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Colts-Patriots

As the season has worn on, the Colts have become more and more aggressive with downfield shot plays. Expect to see a barrage of them Sunday, as the Patriots defense leads the league in passes of 20 or more yards allowed, with 47. Deep throws aren’t the only way Indy will attack, though. Against two-deep zone teams (which is what the Patriots have been this year), the Colts like to stretch the back seven defenders with rolled pockets and slow-developing plays. Expect the Colts to do what the Bills did last Sunday and attack New England’s linebackers through the air. The Bills went spread to do this; the Colts generally involve their tight ends in the passing game out of base sets that allow for play-action and misdirection. The absence of Fleener, who was declared out early in the week, could limit their ability to take advantage of this though.