As you’re probably aware I’ve been harping on third down being the key for success this season. That’s because the Patriots defense has demonstrated that they’re good tacklers and don’t give up a lot of big plays. Most of the time they’re winning on first and second down, so it’s just a matter of winning third down, getting off the field and letting the offense do what it does best.
While the Patriots will finish as last in the NFL by allowing a first down on 47.1% on the third downs they’ve faced, things have been remarkably better in the last five games of the season:
- Jets 3/12 = 25%
- Bears 3/8 = 37%
- Packers 11/19 = 57%
- Bills 3/10 = 30%
- Dolphins 4/13 = 30%
So for the last five games, nearly a third of the season the Pats have been performing at a 38.7% clip on 3rd down. This would rank in the top half of the NFL.
These numbers having me believe that coupled with all the turnovers they get this is absolutely a defense that is capable of winning a Super Bowl.