Patriots Gameplan: Week 16 vs Buffalo Bills

The Patriots host the Bills Sunday (1pm EST), their second time in four weeks against Buffalo. The Pats suffocated the Bills last month with a 23-3 win that saw Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis run wild and the defense allow just two sustained drives. Since then the Bills have pulled out two wins to stay in the playoff race.

Now this seems like the last real test of the season, and the Patriots should aim for a finish like 2016, when the closed out the last games with authority as opposed to 2015 when injuries caught up to them and they lost the top seed to Denver. The Bills are fighting for their playoff lives and will throw everything they have at the Pats, especially with some added motivation seeing Rob Gronkowski again so soon.

Is this a hammer-down, Super Bowl-bound Patriots team? Or will the Bills put together the clean game needed to do the rare feat of beating the Patriots in Foxborough? That kind of regression coming off a big win in Pittsburgh would be exactly what the Pats don’t need.

Here’s the gameplan to move one step closer to locking down homefield.

Offensive Gameplan

I really thought Mike Gillislee would get his shot last time in Buffalo, but instead it was still Burkhead. Now, with Burkhead out with a knee sprain, it should most definitely be time for Gillislee to run like a guy who’s been benched for a month-plus should against the team that let him get away. Every time he carries the ball it’s less risk to Tom Brady, Dion Lewis and even Rob Gronkowski.

The Bills have one of the worst run defenses in the league and that should be the target.

Brandin Cooks was a non-factor against the Bills last time, but it would nice to get Chris Hogan back again. Hogan’s absence has led to more tight man coverage but his return should help loosen defenses up with his downfield ability. If there’s a spot where no one has stepped up is at the Z receiver position where Philip Dorsett and Kenny Britt are still looking to have an impactful game. Once Hogan returns they might not get many more chances.

Give it to Gillislee 50 times for all I care with a sprinkling of Lewis and James White, and let that trio do the heavy lifting behind Pro Bowler James Develin. It’s just that easy to protect the key passing game assets a bit.

Defensive Gameplan

The big red struggle area for the Patriots defense against the Steelers was on third down. But that was against a more traditional offense and one that has stars at every offensive skill position. This week we’re back to dealing with Tyrod Taylor, who was held largely in check with just 85 total passing yards last time.

But LeSean McCoy and the ground game, which had 183 total rushing yards, the Pats second-worst performance of the year, should challenge the defense in a similar way to how the Steelers had some success. That came by attacking the edges of the defense and forcing the linebackers to cover as much ground as possible. Can that be enough to power the entire offense? It wasn’t for Pittsburgh, who needed multiple key third down plays to sustain their drives.

If Kyle Van Noy can return it would be a huge athletic boost in multiple areas where the Pats need it most. If they can prevent any long runs from happening, the Buffalo offense should sputter enough for the Pats offense to pull away.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Gillislee — What do I love most about Mike Gillislee? That at this point he’s kind of expendable. So I have no problem running him into the ground in this one. It’s then perfect recipe for a late December win — pound the run game, shorten the game, slowly squeeze the life out of them.
2. QB Finish — While the Pats’ D was pretty good on first and second down against the Steelers, they just couldn’t get off the field on third down and that defined the game early on. And once again, it wasn’t like they weren’t getting to Roethlisberger, they just couldn’t finish. This week, against a mobile QB and likely more Read Option looks, the finish of the front seven will tested. Once they start making those plays in the backfield they’ll have a championship-caliber unit.
3. Statement — This should be the culmination game. The 2017 Pats have homefield in their sites and are coming off a season-defining win in Pittsburgh. This could be a letdown game for some teams, but with the added attention of a divisional opponent who they played just a few weeks ago, the conditions are right for the Patriots to show the total team game they’ve been building toward all season.
4. Linebacker Playmakers — There’s nothing more I’d love to see that Elandon Roberts having the biggest game of his season. Or even David Harris for that matter, or perhaps the former Bills practice squadded Eric Lee who had a surprising first game against his old team. Those guys, who have been inserted into the lineup because of injuries can finally show they belong and are ready to contribute to a Super Bowl run.
5. Win — Yes it’s all that matters, especially at this point, but just as much as that, let’s really hope they can avoid a critical injury at this stage of the season.

 

Prediction: Patriots 28, Bills 13