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Patriots Pre-Training Camp 53-Man Roster Projection

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With training camp just a couple weeks away, it’s a good time to take a quick reset on the roster and make a 53-man projection. Julian Edelman’s suspension being upheld, there’s an extra roster spot to play with at cutdown time. Despite it being a punishment, I always find those roster spots incredibly helpful in protecting promising young players.

Admittedly, this was a fairly easy projection. There are spots where I’m on the fence, but overall this is a deep team that got some good experience last year at the lower end of the roster. Add the influx of injury returnees like Dont’a Hightower, Harvey Langi and Derek Rivers and there’s a lot to be excited about. Training camp should be extremely competitive.

Here’s where I’m at and the spots that were the hardest to pare down.

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Handing Out Real Patriots Rookie Numbers

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In case you missed it this spring, Bill Belichick was up to some new tricks with the rookies, not giving them numbers that fit their positions but instead just handing out numbers starting at 50 in order (h/t to NESN’s Doug Kyed for cracking that code).


Yup, right now the line in order of the picks, but still skipping the retired 56 (Andre Tippett) and 57 (Steve Nelson).

When training camp opens in 20 days everyone has to have actual numbers that fit their positions and even then players could again switch once cuts are made and other, better numbers become available. Yeah, it’s a good bet Christian Sam won’t be doubling up on 54 with Dont’a Hightower.

Let’s take a stab at which numbers would be good choices for the notable rookies.

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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Running Back

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The Patriots ground game jumped from 17th in the rushing DVOA in 2016 all the way to third in 2017, good enough for their third-best ranking since 2000. But with leading rusher Dion Lewis gone to Tennesee, the Patriots will be looking to re-adjust their backfield, with first-round pick Sony Michel the centerpiece.

Despite the impressive season from the running backs, I felt like the Patriots went away from what worked best for them in the playoffs. In games where they gave Lewis the ball 10-plus times the team was 10-0, with a 15.6 average point margin of victory. That was on display against the Titans in the first round of the playoffs, but Lewis would get just nine carries against the Jags and Eagles in the last two playoff games.

I know it’s hard to complain when you put up as much yardage in the Super Bowl as the Patriots did, but they also lost the time of possession battle by 10 minutes and were 2-4 in the red zone. Lewis was second on the team in red zone touchdowns. For as much attention as Malcolm Butler draws in criticism of usage, I’d put Lewis up there as well.

But alas, Lewis is gone and the Pats will have to figure out who’s up next. They have a bunch of interesting options, but Michel’s ceiling could determine if this ground game can remain atop the league rankings in 2018.

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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Defensive End

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The Patriots’ defensive end group suffered heavy departures and attrition in 2017. Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard, key passing-down contibutors for the Super Bowl 52 squad, left via free agency. When Rob Ninkovich retired just a week into training camp it was the biggest blow of all.

Outside his four-game suspension to start 2016 and Ninkovich started every game since mid-way through the 2010 season. You don’t simply replace that kind of reliability, not to mention clutch plays that the “Jet Killer” Ninkovich made on a regular basis.

Third-round pick Derek Rivers tore his ACL in training camp, another critical blow at a ravaged position. Cassius Marsh played 267 defensive snaps, then asked out. It was just too much.

The Patriots were then forced to lean completely on Trey Flowers, while using rookies Dietrich Wise and Adam Butler, Bills practice squadder Eric Lee, and later James Harrison, the strongest edge-setter of them all, as replacements.

2017’s defensive ends were a shell of what they had been since the early 2010’s, before Ninkovich and Chandler Jones started a run of having two strong starters at the top and an array of pass rushers behind them. Though in 2013 and 2014 it was pretty much just Ninkovich and Jones who miraculously played almost every snap and never got hurt.

Will things be better this year? It sure looks like it.

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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Wide Receiver

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After left tackle, there’s no more interesting position on the Patriots roster than wide receiver. After a major turnover in 2013, the Pats are once again looking at another evolution in 2018. Tom Brady hasn’t ever blinked before, managing to win even when those catching his throws had unimpressive names like Reche Caldwell, Kenbrell Thompkins and Brandon Lloyd.

Now, at 40, Brady will once again have to find a new set of go-to targets after the departures of Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks, the pending suspension of 32-year-old Julian Edelman and the recurring absences of promising 2016 rookie Malcolm Mitchell. The Patriots have done well to prepare for this transition, going back into last season, but who clicks with Brady and can stay healthy is a near-impossible thing to predict.

Here’s a rundown of the wide receiver camp battle and who the favorites are to become the next clutch receivers.

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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Left Tackle

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xttDAxpJNY

Remember when Nate Solder signed with the Giants this offseason? It was probably the most significant (and depressing) football move of the offseason as far as the Patriots were concerned, yet by now it’s faded to a distant memory behind all the superficial bullshit that was talked about in the months since.

But the impact of having not set succession plan at the important left tackle spot is the first and easiest place to start as I dive into breaking down the Pats’ training camp battles. Tom Brady‘s only had two starters protecting his blind side — Matt Light, then Solder, and that transition was about as seamless as they come. Solder was drafted in the first round of 2011, got plenty of experience as a backup and spot starter at right tackle as a rookie, then Light retired and Solder stepped in the next season.

There will be no such easy transition this time and the Patriots have taken a throw it all against the wall approach that featured a lot of rotation in OTAs. Dante Scarnecchia is one of the best offensive line coaches in the history of football and with plenty of bodies to work with he should be able to craft a new-look offensive line at 70 years old.

Let’s break down the contenders and how things might look when the 2018 Patriots take the field opening weekend against the Texans.

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Ranking Potential Patriots Rookie Impacts

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Took a nice little vacation up to Maine this week, it was a good chance to unplug during a time where there’s just not much Patriots news to discuss. Most of my blogging comrades are firing out the usual suspects of articles, you know, previews of every random joe on the roster, way-too-early 53-man roster projections and the like. As John Wooden said, don’t mistake activity for achievement, so I’ve taken a less is more approach the last couple weeks.

Now that it’s July (almost) it’s time to start ramping things up, including in-depth looks at the training camp positional battles and a number of under-the-radar players that always seem to make an impact despite the Pats being atop the NFL year in and year out.

Today I’m kicking things off with the new guys, the rookies who can come in and start to reshape the team as they close in on the end of the Tom Brady era. These new rookies, coupled with a number of second-year players who had their rookie seasons cut short, should give the Pats the kind of youthful kick in the pants they really need.

Here’s my top 5 rookies to watch.

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