An Independent Patriots Blog
We were able to hear from LG Joe Thuney yesterday for the first time since the end of last season, when, in the immediate aftermath, I wasn’t so sure we’d see him in a Patriots uniform again.
Thuney finished the final year of his rookie contract playing in a stricken offensive line unit whilst still managing to start every game. In fact, since winning the starting job prior to his rookie season in 2016, he’s started in every regular season(64) and playoff game(10) for the Pats.
Bill Belichick’s preparation and his ability to adapt in every situation is what separates him as a coach. Now, more then ever, Belichick will need to adapt on the fly, and work with these unprecedented circumstances. Covid-19 and the pandemic in general has made things difficult in everyday life. Now with constant testing, and new restrictions, how will Bill Belichick look to build this Patriots team in the post-Brady era?
You could argue that this season will be one of the biggest challenges of Bill Belichick’s. Losing Tom Brady, Dont’a Hightower, Pat Chung, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, and Duron Harmon all in one offseason are a challenge in itself. In a typical season, Belichick would use training camp and the preseason as a competition for positional battles. But, with the preseason being completely eliminated, things just got difficult for the Patriots and the rest of the NFL. The Patriots have question marks at right tackle, tight end, defensive end, linebacker, safety, and even at quarterback.
A traditional NFL season includes four preseason games. These games may do more harm then good when it comes to injuries. But, it allows for coaches to truly evaluate the talent on the back-end of the roster. Finding those hidden gems is something that Bill Belichick has truly mastered, and the preseason is a major reason why. I mean it’s almost every year that Patriots fans get excited about a guy fighting to make the team. Whether that’s Tim Tebow, Austin Carr, or Jakobi Meyers to name a couple.
So, without a preseason how will Belichick evaluate his roster in 2020? How will he replenish the system? Well, he did not seem too concerned about it when he was asked about it last week on his zoom call with the media:
“It will be a little different set up, but that’s what college teams do every year. I think ever since the beginning of college football back in – well, I don’t know about all the way back when Rutgers started in the 1870’s – but that’s the way it’s been. You go to camp for three weeks, then you start the season. There are no preseason games, and you evaluate your team and you get ready to play. I mean, that’s what all college football teams do. So, I don’t think it’s anything that’s revolutionary here. This is just we haven’t done it that way in the National Football League for a while, and I certainly haven’t done it that way. I mean, I haven’t coached in college, but as a college player and growing up around college programs, I can remember those periods of time leading up to the start of the season. Teams had their scrimmages or whatever you want to call them and ways to prepare their team and at the same time evaluate the players. It’s a process that certainly goes into the early part of the season. This is just football, that’s all. I don’t really see it any differently.”
Bill Belichick seems relatively comfortable about playing 2020 without a preseason, and he referenced college football as being one of the main reasons why.
It’s well-documented that Bill Belichick has great relationships with some of college football’s greatest minds. Former head coach of Florida and Ohio State Urban Meyer, Greg Schiano of Rutgers, UCLA’s Chip Kelly, Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly, Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz, and of course Alabama’s Nick Saban all have had a connection to Bill Belichick at some point.
In particular, everyone saw first-hand in HBO’s, Belichick & Saban: The Art of Coaching, how close Belichick and Saban are. Belichick’s respect and admiration for Nick Saban extends more than anyone else in football.
“There’s nobody I respect more in football than Nick Saban. I’ve learned an awful lot from him. We’ve had a lot of great conversations throughout the years.“
It’s time for Bill Belichick to take a page out of Nick Saban’s book. Whether the key to success is more team scrimmages, or more practice reps for bubble guys, Belichick will need to figure out a solution.
I believe that Belichick will come into training camp this summer with a college football mindset. Belichick has never coached college football, but between Saban and others, he should have a pretty good understanding how they evaluate talent.
While the rest of the coaches in the NFL scramble around trying to makeshift their way through this unique training camp, Bill Belichick always seems like he’s ahead of everyone, and this situation feels no different.
For example, you have coaches like Bill O’Brien publicly giving up on his young players due to the lack of a preseason and unorthodox training camp:
“It’s going to be difficult for younger players.”
As always Bill Belichick is ready to adapt and ready to get ahead of the rest of the league.
The key to success might be an old friend…
As we enter Training Camp 2020, many questions remain regarding many different positions. So, for a bit of fun, I’ve decided to try and predict the Patriots 53-man roster.
I totally expect to get a bunch of these wrong, but here goes… At the time of writing, I’m up to date with all opt-outs and PUP listings that were released today. I’ll be doing a final roster projection just prior to cut day at the end of camp, so we can see how accurate I was!
Quarterbacks (3)
Cam Newton, Jarett Stidham, Brian Hoyer
Cut (1)- Brian Lewerke
BB told us on Friday that everyone will have a chance to compete, including those at the QB position. Cam will be the obvious favorite to top the depth chart, but the only competition he’ll face is from Stidham, I see Hoyer playing the 3rd string mentor role, similar to Cody Kessler last season.
[Read more…] about Patriots pre-camp roster projectionFresh from his yearly postseason break in Nantucket, Bill Belichick graced fans and reporters with his presence during a conference call this afternoon. It’s been the first time we’ve been able to hear from the HC since the Draft in April. Let’s recall what’s happened since we last heard from Bill.
Firstly, James Develin’s decision to retire in late April, the shock Cam Newton signing, and more recently, the six players who decided to opt-out of the upcoming season.
Players weren’t the only changes, this past week the team announced it’s coaching staff adjustments for the new campaign, one of which included Bill’s son Brian, who has been promoted from assistant coach, to take over the safeties position.
I can’t wait for the envy in teams to grow, it’s hard enough planning to get the upper hand on one Belichick, let alone three.
So what were the conference call talking points?
The Patriots had an offseason that resulted in a great deal of turnover, and the turnover has grown over the last couple of days. This offseason the Patriots lost Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts, Danny Shelton, and of course Tom Brady in free agency. They traded Duron Harmon to the Lions. They lost James Develin to retirement, and now they notably have lost Branden Bolden Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, and Dont’a Hightower to COVID opt-outs.
So, that’s a total of 11 impact guys on the field as well as in the locker room. In total, those 11 players have a combined 30 Super Bowl rings. Losing Tom Brady would have been a monumental loss in itself, but losing all those pieces defensively sets up a difficult challenge ahead for Bill Belichick. On top of having a major roster turnover, the pandemic has forced the NFL to cancel the preseason, which will make it difficult for Bill Belichick to fully assess his roster. Training camp will surely look different this season with all of the COVID restrictions.
Bill Belichick has pulled rabbits out of his hat before, but overcoming all of this is a new challenge in itself. This season was supposed to be the season in which Belichick proves that he was not a product of Tom Brady. But, at this point, the loss of Tom Brady isn’t even Bill Belichick’s biggest concern moving forward. The Patriots of course added former MVP quarterback Cam Newton, and they still have Julian Edelman, James White, Mohamed Sanu, N’Keal Harry, Sony Michel, and are getting David Andrews back at center.
As crazy as it sounds, I think the offense is in decent shape heading into training camp. If Cam Newton is indeed healthy, the offense will look different, but it should still be effective.
But, when it comes to the defense, Bill Belichick will have work cut out for him.
The Patriots defense was one of the best units in the NFL last season. The defense was the dominate unit for them last season, but it’s unlikely that they can get the same level of production for the unit in 2020. Losing substantial talent on all three levels of the defense will make it really difficult for the Patriots to overcome.
Starting with the defensive line, the Patriots lost Danny Shelton in free agency, as he reunited with former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in Detroit. One of the few weaknesses, the 2019 Patriots defense had was stopping the run. Everyone remembers how Derrick Henry ran all over them in the wild card round last season. Shelton was the best run defender the Patriots had, and I believe that they will in fact miss him.
The Patriots added former Tampa Bay Bucs nose tackle Beau Allen in free agency, and he is the logical replacement for Shelton. Belichick can even move Lawrence Guy inside as a run stopper. With Adam Butler being primarily used as a pass-rusher. Getting the run defense figured out should be one of the biggest concerns for Bill Belichick.
However, when it comes to the linebackers, it won’t be as simple. In particular, replacing Van Noy, Collins, and Hightower is something that is not realistic. According to Pro Football Reference, Kyle Van Noy has played more than 80% of the defensive snaps over the last two seasons. Collins played 81% of the defensive snaps in 2019, and Hightower has been a part of three Super Bowl teams, and has been an anchor on Bill Belichick’s defense for almost a decade. Hightower wears the green dot on defense and is often considered to be the quarterback of the defense. So, the Patriots are basically entering the 2020 season with a whole new group of linebackers. A group that will depend on the jump of second year linebacker Chase Winovich, the emergence of Ja’Whaun Bentley, the readiness of rookies Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings, and the hope that Brandon Copeland will pick up the Bill Belichick’s complex defensive system.
The linebackers will likely be the Patriots’ biggest weakness of defense, but the secondary which is considered to be the biggest strength of the team took a massive hit when Patrick Chung opted out of the 2020 season. Chung has been a staple for the Patriots’ defense since 2014, and is the most versatile player in that secondary. The Patriots drafted safety Kyle Dugger in the second round of the draft, and he seems to be the logical replacement for Chung on the defense. But, it is far from a perfect fit. Dugger’s potential is clearly unknown, but a jump from NCAA Division II football to a starting safety in the NFL doesn’t seem very plausible. The Patriots also signed safety Adrian Philips in the offseason, and still have Terrance Brooks on the roster. I could see a situation in which the Patriots convert a cornerback to safety. The Patriots are very deep at cornerback and maybe can move a guy like Joejuan Williams to safety. But, they will miss Chung’s leadership and his grit as being one of the toughest guys on the field.
If you add up all the departures on defense, it’s obvious that this defense will go through a serious makeover. With a plethora of question marks, it’s tough to project who will even be on the field come week 1. Bill Belichick has certainly dealt with adversity when it comes to building a defense, but losing all of this talent days ahead of training camp is setting up a great challenge for him.
The hoodie will have his hands full when he begins to craft this Patriots defense…
Following the retirement of James Develin this offseason, the hope would have been for Danny Vitale to help fill the void in the backfield. We all know how Belichick can use the position to great effect. Whilst the offense may look different this season, the Patriots Fullback position will still be a vital need for the run game.
So who’s in contention?
Clearly, Johnson would be a safe bet to fill the role if he continues to improve and can stay healthy. The 6-foot-3, 255lb German became part of the roster under the NFL’s International Player Pathway system in 2019. He was only able to make three starts last season before being placed on IR with a shoulder injury.
[Read more…] about Let’s talk Fullbacks
The number is currently at 6 Patriots players opting out of the upcoming season. As it stands, Marcus Cannon, Dan Vitale, Najee Toran, Brandon Bolden, Dont’a Hightower, and now Patrick Chung have all made the decision to sit out this year due to Covid-19 pandemic concerns. This is completely understandable and a personal decision that I’m certain was not easy.
It obviously frees up tons of salary cap space and of course it will be fascinating to see what Bill Belichick does with that, but seeing what is happening right now in baseball with the Marlins as an example of what can go very wrong very fast makes even the most determined optimist question how realistic our hopes for an actual full NFL season really are.
My 15 year old commented “Tank for Trevor (Lawrence)”, the Clemson quarterback most are projecting as the top pick in next year’s draft, but I just don’t see it for a Bill Belichick team. He is way too much of a competitor and historian of the game, who I believe is chasing Don Shula’s record for most games won in his career. Bill knows he only has so many games left to accomplish this. Its hard to imagine him wasting a year of potential wins to maybe get a player of the future. Not to mention, what a challenge for a coach who loves to make adjustments. Is this not the ultimate test for a head coach, to somehow pull off a winning season under the worst possible conditions and the first post-Brady?
Its very much a fluid situation right now, so we’ll stay tuned and try to stay optimistic. We really need sports as a distraction from everything else going on around the country and globe, so everything crossed it can be done safely.