The New England Patriots got back on track last week with an impressive win over the previously undefeated Cincinnati Bengals. But there’s little time to enjoy that victory, as the Buffalo Bills welcome the Pats for their second divisional game this season.
Despite New England’s 22-2 record against the Bills since 2001, the early season games, especially those in Buffalo are always close. With first place in the AFC East on the line, the Patriots will need to build on the success they had against the Bengals.
The 3-2 Bills will be looking to make a statement and the Patriots know what they’re walking into – a hungry team that wants to prove they’re a true contender.
Here’s the gameplan.
Offensive Gameplan
Continuity is the name of the game this week, building on the solid play of last weekend without regressing is a daunting task in a tough environment like Buffalo. Bill Belichick calls it “stacking success” and that’s something the 2014 Patriots haven’t been able to do yet.
It starts with the offensive line, which may have some questions with Bryan Stork showing up on the injury report on Thursday with a “head injury”. If Stork can go, there’s no reason to change up what worked last week on the line, and really, they don’t have many other options.
The offense cannot continue to progress if Brady doesn’t have the time he needs.
Incorporating pieces like Aaron Dobson and Tim Wright are also important, as they add two completely new elements to the Patriots offense, elements they lacked last year – an athletic “F” tight end and a tall, speedy receiver on the outside.
Getting Danny Amendola more touches wouldn’t be a bad thing either. He had his best game as a Patriot last year in Buffalo, despite tearing his groin in the process. Amendola has been getting open, Brady just hasn’t been finding him.
Balance between the run and pass is critical as always. Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley had great patience last week and if they get that kind of blocking again, they should be able to expose the Bills run defense. But there will likely have to be some misdirection and screens involved to avoid Brandon Spikes in the middle of the Bills defense. He’s a downhill, impact linebacker if you run it right at him.
Defensive Gameplan
Injuries are adding up on the defensive side of the ball. Dominique Easley separated his shoulder last weekend and could be out. Chandler Jones is battling a shoulder injury of his own as well. With Michael Buchanan on IR now and Dont’a Hightower missing last weekend with a knee injury, the Pats are scary thin at defensive end right now (and Hightower isn’t even a defensive end!). Even their emergency options are being thinned out.
This is not good for the edges of the defense. The Pats could really use Hightower back to reinforce the edge from his strongside linebacker spot. The options for pass rushers have been thinned out as well. Vince Wilfork and Rob Ninkovich might have to play out of their minds.
Devin McCourty was in a red “no contact” jersey in practice. If he’s out this week Duron Harmon steps into the primary free safety role, something that could be a bit a scary.
But Buffalo should rely on their quick passing game primarily around Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, so it will likely come down to linebackers Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins making plays.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Wrap and Tackle: In the two road losses this year a recurring theme was poor tackling and that cannot happen with talented running backs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Winning on the road, to borrow a phrase from the late great Maine hockey coach Shaun Walsh, is about being “quietly efficient”. Make the plays you’re in position to make. Don’t do too much. Just DO YOU JOB. If they do that, the Pats defense should be in good position with their talented secondary. But it must start with sound play up front.
2. Two Tight Ends, One Personnel Package: We saw just a glimpse of what last year’s leading receiver for rookie tight ends Tim Wright could do and this week he needs to be worked in even more. As Rob Gronkowski returns to his old self, Wright is the perfect compliment to him – a move tight end who can stretch the seam but also go up on jump balls. The two tight end set is the most versatile in football and allows the offense to dictate the matchups they want. The sooner the Pats can run Wright and Gronk with a combination of any other weapons, the harder they will be to stop.
3. Make Spikes Cover: Brandon Spikes has certainly had this game circled since the schedule was released and he’ll make his presence felt in the run game. But Spikes’ weaknesses in pass coverage are well-documented and the Pats have a knack for turning a player’s overaggressiveness against them. That should be the case with Spikes as the Pats have plenty of options to exploit him in space. Whether it’s Shane Vereen, Rob Gronkowski or Tim Wright, the Pats will look to get Spikes in space and take him out of his specialty. Play action should come early and often.
4. Block Four With Five: There’s little surprise that maintaining the kind of offensive line play that we saw against the Bengals is of paramount importance. This week, with a Bills team more than capable of generating pressure with just four talented rushers, the Patriots must find a way to give Brady the extra time to find open receivers with seven defenders in coverage. Kyle Williams should test the interior of the Pats line while Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams will be attacking the edges. Stopping those three players especially might just be the biggest key to the entire game.
5. Win: The Pats are already in a 0-1 hole in the AFC East and dropping to 0-2 would put real pressure on them. Divisional games are of paramount importance in Foxboro – they’re the most direct route to the playoffs of course, so Bill Belichick and co. know what is at stake. Stepping into sole possession of first place in the AFC East would be a nice statement to make in early October, but the road only gets harder from here.
