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Patriots Game Plan: Week 16 @ Jets

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If you haven’t heard, the Patriots are already being pencilled in to face the Packers in the Super Bowl. These last two games against the lowly Jets and Bills, who once again lost the division to the Pats, will have no impact on the Pats’ paper-thin grasp on the top seed in the AFC, so we don’t even really need to tune in. Or do we?

That’s how things probably look to most outside of New England, those who only remember the 45-3 stomping of the Jets in 2010 or the Buttfumble game of Thanksgiving 2012. But in reality, every game between Rex Ryan’s Jets and the Patriots is incredibly close.

The Jets would have beaten the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 7 had the final field goal not been blocked by Chris Jones. Throw out the Buttfumble game and the last four meetings between the two teams have been decided by 11 total points, with two of them going to overtime.

Yes, we can throw records out the window when these two teams meet. Say what you will about Rex Ryan as a head coach, but as a defensive game planner, no one is more adept at giving Tom Brady and the Pats’ offense problems.

This game concerns me and the Pats have a lot to lose. Here’s the gameplan for getting by a very tough road test that some are dubbing “meaningless”.

Offensive Game Plan

As I said in last week’s game plan, by now we know who we are and the strength of the Jets defense (run defense) only encourages the Pats to be who they are –  a passing offense that throws to score and runs to win. 

Now, there’s certainly something to be said for getting Jonas Grey more involved earlier this week and I’m all for that. But rarely is a game plan more obvious. The Pats should spread the Jets out, making them dig deep into the secondary depth to cover all of New England’s targets.

This means more Shane Vereen, Tim Wright and Danny Amendola, and less Hooman and Develin. And I’m sure no one will complain about that.

The biggest concern, as always, is along the interior of the offensive line where the weak link of the Pats’ offense faces the strength of the Jets’. As I write every week in these game plan articles, it all comes down to protecting Brady, but Sheldon Richardson owning Dan Connolly all game and ruining the Pats offensive game plan is a very-possible recipe for disaster.

Spread the Jets out, get the ball out quick and get an early lead to extinguish any energy they might bring early in this one and the Pats should roll.

Defensive Game Plan

Remember in Week 7, when Revis gave up three catches on four targets, including a 24-yarder to Eric Decker, as the hapless Pats couldn’t get off the field against the Jets and everyone started to question if Revis still had it?

Well, safe to say those days are behind us, but I think Revis will play with something to prove in the Meadowlands. I do think we’ll see the Pats playing more sides in the secondary than staying with specific receivers.

We saw more Cover-3 last week and that should continue this week, especially with how the Pats were burned by Geno Smith tucking and running in the first matchup.

Up front, we gonna do what we do. The Pats now have a lethal dose of pass rushers and space-eaters. And it starts with stopping the run, since the Jets ran wild all over the Pats the first time around.

That shouldn’t be a problem with Wilfork/Branch/Siliga locking things down inside now. Without the running game to lean on, the Jets offense will struggle and that’s when the airtight coverage in the secondary comes into play. That is the strength of the Pats defense and forcing the Jets to play into it is priority one.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Build the Wall: Looking back at Week 7 and the stat that jumps off the page is the Jets’ 218 rushing yards. That led into them being 9-of-16 on third down, as they had manageable distances. This time around Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch are in the mix, along with a fully healthy Chris Jones. The edges are equally important with Ninkovich, Chandler, Ayers and Hightower all having that assignment throughout the game. Stop the run and the Jets offense will wilt.

2. Keep Offense On Time: Rex Ryan’s defense feasts on third-and-longs, where his deception and overloaded blitzes have extra time to get to Tom Brady. How do we avoid third-and-longs? By winning on first and second down. The Pats haven’t been good the last two weeks trying to run on first down, averaging 3.3 yards-per-rush. I’d be fine if they go pass-heavy, but if they do try to “establish the run” Jonas Gray has been far better than Blount running against a base defense, averaging 6.3 yards per first down carry. Whether it’s the quick passing offense or runs with Gray, winning on early downs will be key to mounting scoring drives.

3. Make Geno Throw: The last thing we need is for the Pats’ pass rush to get overzealous, opening up running lanes for Geno Smith. Smith converted three third downs in Week 7 by scrambling. Those kind of drive-extending plays are the worst. I don’t think anyone believes Geno has the kind of accuracy to pick the Pats’ secondary apart. Keep him in the pocket, only rush two if you have to, but make him beat us through the air.

4. 60 Minutes: We’d all love it if the Pats could just turn in two average, injury-free performances and sew up the top seed in the AFC, but neither the Jets nor Buffalo are going to let us off easy. And really, that might be a good thing for the Super Bowl prospects of the Pats. They can’t ease up or their road to Arizona will get much tougher. They’ll have to have all their focus and competitiveness for a full 60 minutes this weekend. Rex will not go down without a fight and his players will want to send him out with a win over their hated rival. The Patriots must be ready for a motivated football team, at least for the first half.

5. Win – This is what it all boils down to. This could be the last time the Pats play a road game until they potentially go to Arizona. That in and of itself is motivation to put a strong exclamation point on this season’s road wins. New England has won against some very good teams on the road this year, and in convincing fashion in Indy. A win puts them one game away from a very advantageous road. That should be all the motivation they need.

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Jones played on the edge for 31 snaps and took 24 reps at an interior position, either on the nose or over the center. He rushed the passer 53 times and dropped into coverage twice, the first of which led to his bone-rattling hit on receiver Jarvis Landry after a 5-yard catch. Jones also was on the field for all 16 third downs and 4-of-5 fourth downs, which proved the Pats wanted him in the mix for the most crucial situations.

Chandler Jones provides options | Boston Herald

https://www.patspropaganda.com/jones-played-on-the-edge-for-31-snaps-and-took-24/

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kickoffcoverage:

KICKOFF COVERAGE’S HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK: WEEK 15

Dolphins kicker Caleb Sturgis’ field goal is blocked and recovered by New England Patriots cornerback Kyle Arrington for a touchdown.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/kickoffcoverage-kickoff-coverages-highlights-2/

Patriots vs. Dolphins All-22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

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It’s been a crazy week, wrapping up at the real job and getting everything in order for a nice long two-week break. Finally got a chance to look at the All-22 for the Pats defense and they continue to impress me on every level.

The high-round draft picks and high-price free agents are finally all coming together. They have the spectrum of speed and athleticism to physicality and toughness completely covered on all levels and it’s been a lot of fun watching a defense that can dictate, not just hold on.

Here’s what stood out in the All-22 review, defense edition…

Never want to start the game with a 50-yard bomb, but not that surprising given Malcolm Butler was so isolated against Wallace on the left side of the field.  Butler misses any jam, then stutter steps again playing the Dig/Out. A better throw and Wallace might’ve been gone. 

Zone running plays just weren’t there for the Phins like they were in Week 1, with Vince Wilfork dominating inside to stop the first one.

Third-and-six and the Pats go with a pass rush front, with Chandler at DE and Hightower at OLB. Dolphins go toss left but Hightower is strong on the edge, blowing up the play. 

Dolphins have to settle for the field goal, which is blocked by Collins and returned for a TD by Arrington. Such a classic Patriots defense start – give up a big play, then force a turnover for six.

The Chris Jones-Siliga-Wilfork front is a new look for the 34 regular. More zone reads with no success. Pats were ready for those, but also for the play action that came off of them.

Two possessions into the game and we’ve already seen Chandler Jones standing as the edge player, hand down at defensive end and inside as a defensive tackle. They threw him right into the fire and he was clearly ready to go. With the development of Ayers now, the Pats have a lot of athletic options. This just might be the most athletic and versatile the front seven has been since 2005.

Third-and-15, you tell me who’s coming and who’s dropping…

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Correct answer is Nink and Ayers dropping on the edges with Collins/Hightower rushing up the gut. Phins actually do a good job picking it up, but Tannehill’s deep shot falls incomplete.

After Brady’s interception, Miami takes over at their own 34, then 29 after a false start.

Best drive of the day by the Dolphins as they had a good mix of runs and passes that found the soft spots in the Pats’ defense. Once again the Patriots stiffened in the red zone, led by a dominant stop for no gain by Siliga on first down.

The Pats swarmed to a bubble screen on second down, that’s the kind of pursuit and aggressiveness that is becoming a trade mark for them.

On third down, Tannehill looked for Clay in the back of the end zone, but he was perfectly covered by McCourty.

Ninkovich got run out of his hole on second down of the next possession, we’ve seen this frequently this year. I think it’s somewhat of a function of the stunts they like to run with him, but they get burned on running plays, often losing the edge.

The Pats are one of the lowest-ranked defenses covering tight ends this year, and as we’ve gone along we’ve seen more of McCourty manning them up. He’s seeing plenty of off-coverage on Charles Clay in this one.

On Harmon’s interception, the Pats showed Cover-1 presnap, but dropped into Cover-2 Man post-snap. Just a too-high throw by Tannehill that Gibson couldn’t corral.

Pats plated a lot more zone in this one it seems, specifically Cover-3, with elements of press bail. This is similar to what the Seahawks did and I think it’s function of not necessarily needing to matchup on the receivers like they did when Revis/Browner fit receiver styles better.

Dont’a Hightower is so fast for his size and so strong. He seems to grow on me every game. Reminder – I’m the guy who left him off my big board because we already had Brandon Spikes. Swing and a miss there, Duss.

Third-and-9, with the Pats up 14-3 and the ball on the Pats’ 35. Pats play pure Cover-2 Man, sending 4 on pass rush. Collins goes out wide to cover Williams out of the backfield, then bites on his double move leaving him with a ton of separation. Williams drops the pass but it was wide open. Some might want to kill Collins for this but it’s about the hardest thing you can ask a linebacker to do, especially when the double move comes right at the stick. Collins has been great this year but let’s not expect him to suddenly be playing perfect cornerback too.

Phins get the ball back just before the 2 minute warning and we all remember what a nightmare the last two minutes of this half were. But this possession was fine, forcing a punt with :47 left.

Miami did take a shot to Matthews in this series, but Butler showed a good ability to flip his hips and run with him. Pass was off but it was a marked improvement from the first play of the game.

After three runs by Vereen that went for a total of 2 yards, the Pats punt back to Miami and a great return by Landry gets them to the New England 35 with :11 seconds left. It was right here that I tweeted “just not a TD”, but of course that’s what happens.

Butler is playing off and does an okay job of flipping and running again, but the throw is dead on and the catch is even better. Great sequence from the Phins before half time that made it seem like this would be a close game.

Second Half

Pats defense puts the clamps down now. Get ready for a bunch of three-and-outs.

First third down – third-and-three – Miami tries a zone run, but Hightower throws the center into the backfield and there’s just nowhere to go.

Miami now down 24-13 as they get the ball back, only for a tipped ball interception by Chung. Chung faked Cover-1 presnap then dropped into Cover-2, but it was Browner’s hit as the ball arrived that sent it into the air for Chung to snag.

Pats score another TD on the next play, now Miami gets it back down 31-13. Chung probably should’ve picked Tannehill’s first pass too. 

Third-and-12 now, Miami tries to hit the crosser to Landry but Logan Ryan sticks with him and makes the tackle short of the first down. Good example of a team targeting the guy not named Revis/Browner, but that player making the play.

Pats blitz Ryan on the first play of the next possession, but Tannehill sees it and finds the open Landry for 8 yards. At least they’re still sending blitzers now, like the aggressiveness.

Jamie Collins slices through the line and stops a run for a loss of 4, timing it perfectly and showing the explosiveness he has. Collins and Hightower are such a good 1-2 punch together. I had concerns about them when Mayo went down, but not anymore.

Collins brings the heat on the next play too, handing Siliga a sack in the process. 

Miami now in desperation mode and the Pats bust out a 0 DT, 4 Safety look. Don’t see that one very often.

Pats snuff out a 4th-and-18 and this one is pretty much done.

The Patriots defense is as good as it’s been since 2007. Seems like anything they give up is just a perfect (or broken play) by the other team where they hit on it. But once the Pats gets a lock on what the opponent is doing, they are shutting it down in the second half every week.

The coverages are varying more than earlier in the season, as are the usage of pass rushers and droppers. With Chandler back it gives even more options but teams are still being overwhelmed by the strength/speed combo of Hightower and Collins.

As Logan Ryan, Patrick Chung and Malcolm Butler, along with Duron Harmon, play better in coverage, the ceiling for the defense is limitless. They have talent and athleticism at every level and can play any kind of game, mixing and matching their front seven to create advantages.

I think that the Patriots are preserving Wright for the playoff. Not a question of health, but to hide the schemes. He played a lot of snap only against Detroits. Thoughts?

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I think some of this “Belichick playing it close to the vest” stuff is a little overrated. I don’t think he’s holding back or really hiding much outside of maybe some gimmick plays, and even then, by this point, I think that tank is just about emptied out.

The easy explanation is that they wanted to use their power run game more than their spread passing game. We saw plenty of Wright against Detroit, the best run defense in the league. So I think his usage is more confined to the pass-heavy game plans. 

That said, there are likely to be plenty of of pass-heavy games in the playoffs so I think we will see more of him then. And actually it will probably start this weekend against the Jets.