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February 11, 2015 by Mike Dussault

In 2014, the Patriots were the worst team in the league in Power Success, allowing opposing offenses to convert 22 of 27 runs (81 percent) in important short-yardage situations (third or fourth down with two yards or less to go and first- or second-and-goal from the two-yard-line or closer). Even the Patriots’ few stops came against the league’s worst running teams. Teams not ranking in the bottom quarter of the league in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA ratings converted 16 of 17 chances (94 percent) against the Patriots’ run defense.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Four Downs: AFC East

Struggling to understand how they were this bad, because the run defense was generally pretty solid in the second half of the season. Something to look closer at because at just 27 plays, it is a pretty small sample set.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-run-defense/

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: vince wilfork

If you have to choose as to who stays— Vereen or Ridley?

February 11, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Vereen. No question. 

And I think what a lot of people are forgetting is that 2014 was the first healthy season of Vereen’s career. He played just 8 games in 2013. So it will be a bit of buyer beware if a team wants to give him a huge contract based on what he did in the Super Bowl.

I don’t think the Pats are ready to hand the reigns to James White and the passing-down back is a huge role in the Patriots offense. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, because I don’t think they’ll be willing to spend much on him. They really can’t.

As for Ridley, the one-year prove it deal coming off the injury makes sense, but I could also see them rolling with Blount/Gray/Gaffney and maybe taking an early-down back in the draft. I think they’re in okay shape regardless.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

I remember you wrote a great piece about Welker being let go as the best option then. (It has played out that way). I want to get your opinion on Welker contemplating retirement? Do you think he was under-utilized in Denver? PM effect? Or was it just him slowing down?

February 11, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Thanks, here’s that piece (Why The Patriots Should Let Wes Welker Walk).

It’s not really a surprise that Welker’s slowing down and I think given the number of concussions he’s had, it would be smart for him to retire. The Patriots did what they always do – let a player go a year too early rather than a year too late. 

Could Welker have helped them in 2013? Probably. Would anyone want him over Edelman in 2014? Nope.

The only unfortunate part for the Patriots was that they paid Amendola what they probably should’ve given to Edelman. Now they’ve got some decisions to make on Amendola’s hefty salary. 

We can’t forget how good Welker was for the Pats for so long. He redefined the slot receiver role to the point where everyone was looking for his clone and still are. But we also have to remember that Welker’s production was a huge function of the Patriots’ system that relies on the kind of routes he runs best. 

There’s no surprise that Edelman has essentially slipped into that role and is putting up the same numbers. 

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Do you think the WR group is set for 2015? Are Dobson /Tyms the best options for the vertical? Or do you see them going after a more polished vertical threat?

February 11, 2015 by Mike Dussault

I think they’ll add some low-end guys, they always do, but at the top of the depth chart I think they’re pretty well set. LaFell/Amendola/Edelman is a solid trio at the top. Just a tough trio that can make all the tough catches and make plays not only with the ball in their hand, but blocking and playing an all-around game. Then you’ve got Dobson and Boyce coming in with something to prove and who knows what Tyms can do with a full year in the system. 

You can win a Super Bowl with that group. Obvs.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

To follow up on the comment about Mayo’s return: How about Ayers? Does he have a role if he returns? Or is he an option if Mayo is let go?

February 11, 2015 by Mike Dussault

I think there’s a spot for him but certainly at a manageable number. After playing a starting role for five games, he played just 24 total snaps in the three playoff games. 

I also think his role is minimized with Easley back in the mix as more of the designated pass rusher. He has some versatility and provides good depth on the edge, so I’d like to have him back, but I don’t think he’s a must-sign.

Put it this way – he’s a more proven player than Buchanan or Moore and they have no edge depth beyond them after Chandler/Ninkovich.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

What do you think happens with amendola, I think his cap is around 6-8 million which is kinda high but then he started to come up big when he was needed most this year

February 11, 2015 by Mike Dussault

His cap hit is $5.7 million and if they cut him it’s still a $3.6 million cap hit. Including Revis, he’s the 8th highest paid player on the team for this coming season, so yeah, something has to be done. It’s a good bet he’s one of the first re-structures. 

I do think he has real value for the team and yes, he came up with some big plays in the playoffs and that does count for something. Hopefully they can reduce his hit a bit to line up more like the third WR/return specialist that he is.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Do the pats even need mayo as they play mostly with 2 lbs anyway? Who snaps get cut with him returning?

February 11, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Well, things could be a little more balanced and Hightower could play some more at the end of the line, where he can get after the quarterback a bit more. Put it this way – they’re not going to be WORSE with Mayo in the mix and the wear and tear can be mitigated a bit more. Also worth mentioning that the Pats still struggled in coverage against tight ends this year and Mayo can do that. 

So it opens some doors for a 3-3-5 nickel, gives them a more talented regular defense and puts another very good leader on the field. Figuring out how they manage the 4-2-5 nickel isn’t a huge problem and can be tweaked from week to week anyway.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

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