I was not entirely surprised to see the news today that the New England Patriots would not be picking up Vince Wilfork’s option for the 2015 season. Still, it hit me hard as Wilfork has been the fulcrum of the defense for over a decade.
To learn just how much Wilfork meant to the defense, read this great piece from 2012 by Chris Brown.
Wilfork started out as a 3-4 nose tackle, but around 2010, as the game evolved, he grew into a much bigger role. Belichick began moving him all over the line as the sub-defense usage rose and the 3-4 became a specialty package to stop the run.
Belichick used Wilfork as the queen on his chessboard, positioning him to single-handedly take away an opponent’s strength. Wilfork played up and down the line and had some games, like the 2011 AFC Championship, where he was absolutely dominant.
It got to the point where I believe the Patriots overused Wilfork, just look at his snap progression from 2009:
- 2009: 51.8 percent
- 2010: 69.8 percent
- 2011: 86.8 percent
- 2012: 81.3 percent
That kind of playing time for a player the size of Wilfork, once thought to just be a run-stopping nose tackle, is unheard of. And it seems quite likely that the heavy load caught up to Wilfork in 2013, when he tore his Achilles early in the season.
That was the first major injury of his career and many, including me, questioned if he could come back as his same old self. But Wilfork proved me and everyone else wrong, turning in another great season in 2014, playing 73.9% of the snaps and walking off the field for the last time as a Patriot the same way he ended his first season with the team, as a Super Bowl champion.
You simply can’t just replace a player like Vince Wilfork, a player who essentially defined your front seven. But it’s a totally Patriots move to let him go now, maybe a year too early, before it’s a year too late.
The Patriots had some experience playing without Wilfork in 2013, but their run defense fell to 27th in the NFL in DVOA. Sealver Siliga possesses a similar body type to Wilfork and has shown some promising flashes in his first two seasons with the Patriots.
However, Siliga has also had multiple injury issues and required offseason surgery last month, presumed to be on his ankle. He’s part of the equation to replace Wilfork, but not by himself.
A specific area the Patriots defense struggled in 2014 was in their short yardage run defense, even with Wilfork in the mix, and that’s an area that had to be addressed regardless if Wilfork returned or not.
They were 32nd in Power Success and 28th in Stuffed rankings by Football Outsiders. Power Success is the percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Stuffed is the percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. (Don’t share this with Pete Carroll)
So the need for a defensive tackle who can dominate against the run in both free agency and the draft certainly just got a bigger. Can the Pats get by with Siliga, Chris Jones and Dominique Easley as their interior lineman, including an addition like the re-signing of an Alan Branch or similar veteran? There’s more pass rush potential there and if Siliga gets hurt, there’s no proven depth behind him.
Stopping the run is always critical, even moreso now that the Bills have LeSean McCoy.
Perhaps this is a chance for another defensive evolution by Bill Belichick. He can’t rely on his centerpiece Wilfork any more. Change in inevitable, but you can’t just plug another nose tackle in and expect him to be Big Vince.
Wilfork is a legendary Patriot and one of only two who connect the last Super Bowl of the early 2000’s dynasty to the latest one. One day he’ll get a red jacket and enter the Patriots Hall of Fame, if not the Pro Football Hall of Fame as well.
His presence both on the field and off it will be missed, but he will never be forgotten.
