PatsPropaganda

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New England Patriots Mid-Season Regroup

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Since Belichick went off on midseason grades I’m going to avoid that here, but it’s a good time to take inventory of what we now know about the 2015 Patriots, and look down the road to what they’ll have to overcome to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

First, let’s take a look at the major unknowns entering the season:

Cornerback Turnover

The biggest storyline entering the season was the purge of all the cornerbacks and the anticipated move back to more zone defense. The good news is that Malcolm Butler looks like the best young corner we’ve had since Ty Law, Logan Ryan has finally found some consistency, and rookie Justin Coleman has be surprisingly solid as the slot corner. The better news is that the Patriots have stuck with a majority of Cover-1 Man defense, something that I feel is vital in today’s NFL. Maybe the overall great play of the front seven has hid some of the deficiencies at cornerback, but they’ve also managed to incorporate a lot more three (and even four) safety packages. 

Interior OL

The retirement of Dan Connolly put a major focus on replacing a starting guard this season, but little did we know they’d also have to replace Ryan Wendell and Bryan Stork out of the gate. But the great news is the emergence of veteran Josh Kline (who just earned a two-year extension) and a trio of rookies – Shaq Mason, Tre Jackson and David Andrews. With Bryan Stork back, the Patriots suddenly have solid depth on the inside of their offense line. The problem has been the unrelenting injuries to their tackles.

Replacing Vereen

Like the interior offensive line, it looked like the Patriots had magically upgraded their passing down running back role with the emergence of the electric Dion Lewis, who would’ve broken records had he remained healthy the entire season. But now, with Lewis done for the year, the question of who will replace Vereen for the potential last 11 games of the season remains wide open. James White should get the first crack at it. Can he replicate Vereen’s clutch play in last year’s Super Bowl? 

Fatal Flaws?

The Patriots are 8-0 right now, but there are plenty of areas that could derail their Super Bowl hopes. The biggest is the health of their tackles and that almost entirely hinges upon the health of Marcus Cannon and Sebastian Vollmer. We’d assume both will return sooner than later, but the bigger question is keeping them healthy for the playoffs. With those two guys in the game the Pats could beat anyone. But they’re almost out of bodies at the position and losing someone else for the season could be catastrophic.

No one will admit it but the ceiling of the Patriots offense going forward rests almost entirely on James White’s shoulders. If White can’t pick up pass protection, can’t pick up those clutch third downs that are needed on checkdowns, can’t make the first guy consistently miss, the Pats offense will be hindered. For as unstoppable as Gronk and Edelman are, they need that running back element, especially when they go with a pass heavy gameplan. The good news is that we still don’t know what we have in White, and he’s shown some flashes at times in his first two years.

Reasons to Book Tix to San Fran in February

Tom Brady has mastered the game and unless his offensive line just totally lays an egg, he’s going to find a way to beat any team that is put in front of him. Obviously the health of Gronkowski is paramount. As we’ve said all along, if he’s healthy in the last game of the season, it will likely be in the Super Bowl. As good as Brady is, the presence of Gronkowski makes the Patriots’ offense truly impossible. But we’ve known about Brady and Gronk for a while now, the true difference for this Patriots team is…

The front seven. Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are the kind of talented pieces the team lacked on defense from 2008-2011. Now they are all coming into their prime and will give the Patriots at least another season of defensive dominance. Add in the solid play of Rob Nikovich, the anticipated return if Jabaal Sheard and the elevated play of Alan Branch and first-round pick Malcom Brown and this defense has more talent than we’ve seen since 2007. And it’s younger, athletic talent that can dictate, not older, savvy talent that has to rely a little more on brains than brawn as we saw in those late dynasty years.

Despite the health issues on offense, the defense has been largely lucky outside of losing Sheard for the last month and Tarrell Brown for the season. But otherwise their depth is outstanding and varied and they can play any kind of game necessary to win.

Simply put, this is a defense I would feel good about getting the last stop in a playoff game. That’s what the defenses of 2006, 2007 and 2011 didn’t do.

Conclusion

This Patriots team will remain largely intact next season, giving them a window of two years to get another title before some big decision have to be made about who stays and who goes. But with a number of high round picks on defense coming into their prime as well as Brady not slowing down and having great pieces around him, the Patriots should be favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at least once in the next two tries.

We’re only halfway through the season and what defines the second half could be much different than what has defined the first. Dion Lewis helped get the Pats to 8-0 but they’ll need someone else to step up to get them to the Super Bowl.

Still, this first half has once again proved how well the “Patriot Way” works. In hindsight the Patriots were right to let Revis, Browner and Arrington walk, and if anything their defense has been better overall this year than last.

I don’t know what will transpire before the Pats get to the playoffs, which players they will lose or get back, but it’s clear they have they should once again be in it until the end and will go down swinging no matter what. Can an opponent put together that perfect game needed to beat them? The Pats will welcome all challengers.

Closer Look at Patriots’ Coming 2017 Defensive Restart

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I touched on this a little bit yesterday, but wanted to go into a bit more depth today to illustrate just how many choices the Patriots will have to make with their defense in 2017.

Yes, they’ll return everyone next year and with so few free agents in 2016 it will be a prime time to start filling in the numerous holes that they’ll have in 2017. But with a ton of cap space the Pats have a ton of freedom.

First, let’s mention the offense in 2017 which would be in relatively good shape outside of depth. But the front line should be excellent with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis all locked up. And there would be some great pieces up front to block for them – including Solder, Fleming, Klein, Stork and this year’s three rookies Shaq Mason, Tre Jackson and David Andrews (an RFA). The offense could also keep Danny Amendola around, albeit at a high cost.

So offensively the major pieces are in place, but now let’s took a look at a depth chart of the defenders who are currently slated to be under contract in just two years:

That’s it. Nine guys, and Mayo, who is almost certainly cut this offseason, though he could certainly return on a team-friendly deal. Butler is a no-brainer to retain as a restricted free agent as well, though keeping him long term will be a headline issue for 2018.

So tell me exactly how the Pats can’t afford to re-sign Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Jabaal Sheard? Because there’s only one guy on this defense that will be playing on a significant non-rookie contract.

The only real question might be if Flowers surpasses Sheard and then makes better financial sense as the starting LDE. Either way I think it’s a good bet that Ninkovich is phased out (unfortunately). Perhaps Rufus Johnson can continue to ascend as well, he’s a exclusive rights free agent after next year.

Really, what are the other options to re-signing the big three? Fill all these holes with external free agents? Or second-year guys and rookies acquired in the next two offseasons? That’s impossible and has no chance to form a defense anywhere close to what it would be with Jones/Hightower/Collins. You need all three of them. It’s in the best interest of the team both financially and on the field.

The real question marks are the second tier guys at less valuable positions like Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon and Chris Jones. I’d also lock up Justin Coleman for this mix as well.

Then Jones/Hightower/Collins would perfect round out the defense, much in the same way the offense looks at this point – just in need of depth but certainly not lacking top-end talent.

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I really didn’t want to post this, but it popped up, I watched it and it got my blood boiling enough to get me a little more excited for Sunday. But don’t worry, I won’t post those other two Giants games you’re thinking of.

NY Giants Game Winning Drives – 2011 vs. Patriots (Regular Season) – YouTube)

(Source: https://www.youtube.com/)

https://www.patspropaganda.com/i-really-didnt-want-to-post-this-but-it-popped/

Patriots History of Defensive Front Seven Extensions Bodes Well for Jones, Hightower, Collins.

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Today the Pats extended Josh Kline, who has followed a tried and true path from practice squad offensive lineman, to spot starter, to solid starter. Kline is arguably the most improved player on the Patriots offense this season and was probably the only key free agent next offseason.

Of course the contracts that are on everyone’s mind are those of Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins, who are all free agents in 2017. The Pats have plenty of cap space, as essentially this year and next we’ll keep the current defense intact and then they can pick who they want to keep and who they want to let go.

Some are skeptical that Chandler can be kept but I think if we look at Belichick’s history it shows that defensive linemen are really what he values most, so don’t rule out the Pats giving Chandler a big deal.

First consider that all the defensive linemen Belichick has drafted in the first round have received sizable extensions. Richard Seymour had his contract squabbles but the Pats still held onto him for eight seasons before sending him to Oakland. This included a  three-year, $30million extension in 2006.

Then there’s Ty Warren who received a five-year, $35 million extension the year before his rookie deal expired.

And Vince WIlfork got 5-years, $40 million in 2010. That he even got to the end of his rookie deal was a surprise.

Also consider linebacker contract extensions Belichick gave out: Vrabel (2005, 5 years, $16.4 million), Bruschi (2004, three years, $4.6 million (!!!!!!)), Mayo (2011, 5 years, $48.5 million). Or consider the 5-year, $35 million they gave Adalius Thomas in free agency, the biggest free agency whiff of the Belichick era, but still one that shows big money going to a defensive front seven spot.

All of these deals were significant money (except for Bruschi and Vrabel who embodied “team-friendly” deals) and though none saw the end of their deals, it shows that defensive line and linebacker positions are where the Patriots are willing to pay.

Everyone might scoff at how many good players have walked from New England over the years, but there isn’t a single good defensive linemen or linebacker who has gotten away and it doesn’t take a football pundit to recognize that these are the positions Belichick values most.

So don’t assume Chandler Jones
 is walking after 2016. The more likely scenario is that he receives a three-to-five year extension this offseason that will still give him a chance to cash in on another contract. That’s the one that will be with another team and he’ll likely underperform how much he gets at that point in his career.

With no pending monster quarterback deal to give out any time soon, the Patriots have an incredible amount of flexibility as they head toward 2017. Jones, Hightower and Collins can all be retained, and if you add in McCourty (signed through 2019), Easley, Malcom Brown, and Sheard and all the pieces are in place at the most important spots on the defense.

The real guy to be concerned over is Malcolm Butler in 2017. 

Patriots Film Review vs. Redskins: Defense Edition

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Always tough to focus on one specific area when the defense turns in a solid performance like this one, so we’re stick to a general overall review of the All-22 film for all the things that we might missed.

Schematically the Pats stuck with what they’ve been doing this year, mostly Cover-1 Man coverage with Patrick Chung in the box, morphing to more Cover-2 as the lead increased and they continued some use of the four-safety package designed specifically to put physicality in the seams of the defense.

Right now the Patriots defense looks locked in with what they are doing and there’s excellent balance on most downs between the rush and the coverage.

Most impressive has been the emergence of a dominant run defense that has been ignited by Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown. Both players were winning at the line of scrimmage and making plays in the backfield on multiple occasions. 

Brown has really improved through his first eight games. He’s really a unique defensive tackle, with an incredibly low center of gravity and surprising quickness that has him slipping blocks and getting to running backs. 

Once again Dominique Easley and Geneo Grissom are the pass rushing tackles, although we did see a bit of Grissom at defensive end near the end of the game. 

Ninkovich had some trouble at the start of the one long meaningful drive the Redskins put together, but he was generally solid otherwise. Seems like he had a bit more coverage responsibility in this one, as the Pats were dropping one of their edge players into the flat pretty consistently. Easley has a relatively quiet day I thought.

With no Jamie Collins, Jonathan Freeny stepped into play a majority of the snaps, and as the game progressed the Pats started pulling Dont’a Hightower and giving Jerod Mayo and Jonathan Bostic more of a look. Clearly Freeny is the best backup right now as he’s the only one who doesn’t look tentative. Mayo just lacks any pop to his game right now and I’m losing hope that he’ll get it back at all this season. Bostic was similar, looking a little unsure of where he’s going. Of course, he just got here, so that might not be due to his previous injuries like it is with Mayo.

A lot of people want to talk about trading for a corner but I have to say Butler/Ryan/Coleman have been as good as any corner group we’ve had not including last year. Even when they give up plays they are usually right there and usually make the tackle immediately. All are physical and good tacklers and that makes them perfect fits in this defense. Coleman had an unnecessary penalty at the end that cost them the touchdown, but for an undrafted rookie who got here way late, he’s been very solid.

Butler played perhaps his best game. Now I know it was DeSean Jackson’s first game back, but Butler gave up nothing to him, while also being physical against the run. Butler will get a much harder challenge this week against Odell Beckham Jr. Meanwhile Ryan continued to play the best ball of his career with another interception. He always just seems to be in the right place and yes, he might give up some catches, but they’re almost all contested.

A big part of the great secondary play has to be McCourty/Chung/Harmon/Richards, who all seem to have carved out their roles and are executing them at a high level. Though I did think McCourty missed a couple plays he usually makes.

Things seemed a little more relaxed and rotational this week, probably due to the quick and commanding lead right out of the gate. Still, the defense looks strong at all levels and once Jabaal Sheard gets back, he should really help them hit a new level. His return this week would be huge.

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James White Tuesday!!

11 games. That’s what the Patriots need to get out of James White, and while there are free agents out there, I feel like giving him a chance to get comfortable and show what he’s got is the best choice at this juncture.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/james-white-tuesday-11-games-thats-what-the/

Patriots Lose Dynamic Dion Lewis to an ACL Tear

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The Boston Globe’s Jim McBride reports that Dion Lewis did tear his ACL and is done for the 2015 season. Lewis was like the new awesome toy you get on Christmas morning, only to have it break before the end of the day.

First, you have to feel horrible for Lewis, who’s been battling injuries constantly in the NFL. He finally just got healthy enough to show what a thrilling player he was and down he goes again with the dreaded ACL tear. 

Lewis truly made the Patriots offense almost unfair and his absence leaves a huge hole. The Pats were leaning on him more than any running back they’ve had in a long time and now the passing down role once again needs to be filled.

Unfortunately I kept worrying we were on borrowed time with Lewis considering how much he was getting the ball and how many tackles he was taking. The biggest bummer is just how much excitement Lewis brought to an offense that already had it’s fair share of playmakers.

At least once a game Lewis made something out of nothing or made a play that made you stand up out of your seat. Players that can do those things are rare and that element of the Patriots offense is now gone.

The page turns to James White now who has seven catches this season. He’s got quickness and talent, but just not the kind of special quickness and talent that Lewis had. 

White didn’t get the ball much against the Jets but made me feel better about him in those limited touches than I had before. 

The Pats could also explore bringing back Travaris Cadet, who did have over 70 catches last season with the Saints yet remains a free agent despite taking a number of visits around the league since being cut by the Pats.

The likely solution will be more of a combination of White and someone like Cadet to replace what Lewis did so well. But there’s no question it’s vital that the Patriots find a way to get production out of this role in the offense because it’s a big piece. 

Neither White nor Cadet are going to step in and do what Lewis was doing right out of the gate, but White certainly has the potential to shore things up well enough to keep this offense functioning at a high level. Sometimes players just need an extended chance to show what they can do, and now will be James White’s chance to put together 11 games to help get the Pats a Super Bowl title.

Lewis is looking at a significant recovery but all things considered, he should likely be back and ready to go for training camp. It will truly be tragic if he can’t regain the magic he flashed this season in his first real opportunity to showcase his talent, but with a new deal that keeps him in New England through 2017, he’ll definitely get the chance and will be one of the great unknowns in the Pats’ offense.