PatsPropaganda

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Pats Posits: Tuesday Edition – Reacting to the Over-reacting

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To be honest I don’t really read or listen to a lot of the Pats analysis out there, but it’s always fun to wake up on a Monday after a loss to find out what people are apoplectic about. The loss to the Eagles was the classic example of some days you just don’t have the magic. Not to say the Pats couldn’t have won that game or that they didn’t shoot themselves in the foot, but this is the NFL. Every team has talent and regardless of records or how they looked last week, any team can beat any team on any Sunday.

Of course there are those who live in the alternate universe where the Pats get no credit for beating teams that don’t have winning records and subsequently get crucified for losing a game to one of them. It’s an easy way to give them no credit for winning more games than anyone else while simultaneously giving them all the blame when they happen to lose. Now they can declare everything that’s wrong with this Patriots team and why they won’t win the Super Bowl, etc. So yeah, that’s why I don’t need to hear what those kind of “pundits” are saying.

Aside from the obvious errors on special teams and bad throws by Brady, the problem is obvious. The receivers don’t get open as fast now, Brady has to hold the ball longer, the offensive line has to protect longer and everything has slowed down. The Eagles often flooded the field with zone defenders and that exposed the Patriots’ problems.

From WEEI.com:

Brady took an average of 2.63 seconds from snap-to-throw, his highest average of the season. Furthermore, Brady had 16 plays which took more than three seconds, something very uncharacteristic for the Patriots offense. Brady has averaged over 2.2 seconds from snap-to-throw in four straight games, which comes following the first eight games where he only had one game averaging over 2.2 seconds.

The defense was actually pretty good and will be even better when Hightower gets back. I am excited about this defense in the playoffs and there is still every reason to be excited about them.

The special teams problems were an outlier and won’t happen again.

So really, all that matters is the offense finding their groove once again and that’s something that is possible even before Gronk and Edelman return. They had flashes of it against the Eagles, they just couldn’t string it all together without a couple of game-deciding mistakes.

This season continues to feel like a weird version of 2013, with injuries piling up and constantly keeping the team in a state of flux. Last year, there wasn’t a single major injury outside of Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley, both of which happened early in the season. Each week the 2014 team seemed to be building on past performance and confirming their identity.

But this year they’ve been constantly adjusting to the latest injuries and after a white hot start they’ve been in triage mode every week since early October, trying to find ways to win without their top pieces. The offense is now a shadow of what it was in September. Maybe that’s an excuse, but it’s also a fact.

All that said, I still think the Patriots have the inside track on the top seed. The Broncos and Bengals play each other as well as the hot Steelers. There are losses in there for both of those teams. But the bye is so important with those Edelman and Gronkowski injuries. Even if they don’t get the one seed I think their chances in Denver or Cincinnati. The extra week of rest is critical.

It all just comes down to how quickly they can get their offense back and so much of it depends on the status of Edelman. I still hesitate to assume he’ll be back, because even if he is can he still get open immediately and make the impossible third-down catches in traffic? That’s asking a lot.

This might be the most interesting December we’ve had in New England in a long time, at least since 2008 where they were right on the playoff bubble. Needing wins at Jets and at Dolphins could really make those last two games meaningful and difficult. Let’s hope we’ve got at least 87 or 11 back for those.

Pats Posits: Any Given Sunday Applies to Pats Too

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It’s been a while since the Patriots lost a game like this. Losses marred by bad football are something Bill Belichick has distanced himself from in 15 years in New England.

But that’s what an ill-advised drop kickoff, a blocked punt for TD, a punt return for TD and a 99-yard pick six easily add up to. Yes, the Pats hung in there until the end, but the scoreboard doesn’t tell the story at 35-28.

The offense and defense weren’t particularly bad. Brady had two ill-advised interceptions but given the offensive pieces the Pats were rolling out there, it’s hard to be too upset with guys like Keshawn Martin for not making a clutch fourth down catch to keep the Pats’ hopes alive. Those are plays for people like Julian Edelman.

The defense failed to get a big third down stop near the end of the game, but did come through with Jamie Collins’ forced fumble, a clutch play in his return after missing four games. They didn’t see the field for a large chunk of the third quarter, but only allowed two scoring drives in the game.

It was as ugly a loss as we see in these parts and there’s plenty more to break down. Here are the Posits…

Big picture, this loss hurts in the playoff race for homefield advantage, but with the Bengals and Broncos still to play, the door is still open to a second-seed bye if the Patriots win out. But now, they might have to win out, and three of the last four are on the road, including two against teams (as of now) fighting for a playoff spot. This is going to be a drag out fight to the end for that extra week of rest, and boy do the Pats look like they need it.

I can’t remember the last time the Patriots lost a game because of multiple special teams breakdowns. Nine of the last ten years they’ve been ranked in the top ten in league special teams DVOA. An occasional snafu sure? Compounding, game-losing mistakes in bunches? Never.

So that makes it a little easier to swallow. It was out of conference and despite the huge deficit late in the game, they kept fighting and took it down to the wire. Even when the Patriots get blown out, it’s still close.

Does it hurt to see we’re now the #3 AFC seed? Sure. But let’s be honest, with the offensive weaponry the Pats have right now, they’re not the best team in the conference and are just trying to keep their head above water until they at least get Rob Gronkowski
 back.

I like the aggressiveness on the dropkickoff, like they were just trying to break the Eagles then and there, but it was really the spark that ignited a complete reversal in game momentum. So in hindsight, yeah maybe better just to kick it deep and save the dropkickoff. Not the first time an overly aggressive playcall has bit us in the ass with Belichick.

I think that was responsible for the TD on the ensuing drive, but I think the bigger meltdowns that came next – the blocked punt TD to tie it before the half, then the 99-yd interception TD near the start of the second half – were more about a team without an identity right now, and the injuries are certainly catching up with them on the field and in their heads. 

James White’s 10 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown is a silver lining. It still doesn’t seem the Patriots trust him entirely yet, but he must’ve gained some trust and confidence in him after his performance against the Eagles.

I liked how they worked Damaris Johnson in early with a couple touches. They need to find player who can make people miss. More of him please.

Danny Amendola was very solid after missing a game, and despite some drops, Scott Chandler is still hanging in there. They still can’t use Chandler in a Y-TE blocking role so they have to swap him and Michael Williams around, limiting the playbook. 

Wanted more out of LaFell in this one (five catches, nine targets), though he did have a key catch on the second-to-last drive, taking it down inside the five-yard line. I guess outside receivers can only be so effective in this offense, while inside guys and tight ends have to keep the chains moving, but he still needs to catch the ball.

The defense forced seven punts and one fumble, giving up just two scoring drives – the short field one post dropkickoff (eight plays, 59 yards) and the clincher drive, a 12-play, 80 yarder capped with a touchdown to make it 35-14 early in the fourth quarter. Hard to be too upset with the defense, despite that long drive and failing to get a stop on the last third down they saw.

I missed Jamie Collins. Once Hightower gets back too…

I’m guessing this will get plenty of action this week, but the Eagles were false starting throughout the game, and did so clear as day on the the last third down, where the RT was already kicking out to block Jabaal Sheard before the snap. I can understand that pass interference calls have a lot of moving parts, but if the refs can’t catch something as simple as a false start what are they doing out there?

Brady looked incredibly natural catching that pass! And on the bright side, someday that will be the only thing we remember about this game. It was a great play at the time, but all the good feelings were killed when Brady threw the bad pick the very next play. It was like he was feeling a little too good – like this was suddenly the 2014 offense and nothing could go wrong. 

Josh Kline looks to be the latest offensive player to get injured and leave the game, he’s the sixth offensive line starter to get injured as well. Hopefully it’s not a season-ended. Tough to tell. Was ruled a “shoulder”. 

The special teams are not going to have this kind of meltdown again, but the Patriots are now hanging by a thread as far as controlling their own fate in the conference. This week’s matchup against the former-Patriot laden Texans is fascinating. What I wouldn’t give to hear the conversations between Bill O’Brien, Romeo Crennel
, Mike Vrabel
, Vince Wilfork and Brian Hoyer, among others behind closed doors.

The Patriots’ offense will have a huge challenge, especially if they have to face JJ Watt without their most consistent interior offensive lineman this year. Starting two rookies against that front is far from ideal.

The 2015 season is three-quarters over and the Patriots are hanging on, but far from Super Bowl favorites if they don’t eliminate the sloppy play that showed up way too much against the Eagles. I believe the whole team was still reeling somewhat from the loss in Denver. That kind of loss, plus the way Gronk went out, has a way of being a dark cloud and I think it lingered a bit. They just froze in the face of adversity for the second week – which is a little troubling.

Still, it’s the kind of thing they can usually clean up. 

This loss should put Denver and Gronk to bed. They’ll turn the page, but it’s clear they’ll struggle to make it out of the AFC without Gronkowski and Edelman. They must find a way to turn the tide in Houston, a place that hasn’t been great to them since winning Super Bowl 38 there.

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sports-and-everything-else:

Tom Brady acts as a wide receiver taking a pass from Danny Amendola

https://www.patspropaganda.com/sports-and-everything-else-tom-brady-acts-as-a/

Do you think this is amendola and lafell ‘s last year

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LaFell still has another year on his deal and he’s pretty affordable so I think he’ll stick. Amendola could be extended to spread his cap hit out a bit. I think he’s worth it, but he won’t stick at his current projected salary of $5 million for 2016. By comparison LaFell is due to make $2.4 million next year. 

My only reservation is Amendola will be 31 next year. He’s likely got two more years max that they’ll want to pay him, maybe even just one depending on how healthy he stays. So maybe they tack on another year, push out a lot of the cap hit and figure he gets cut after 2016.

Let’s face it, slot receiver take a pounding and break down quickly as we saw with Welker. So while he’s an important piece who has made some huge plays for us, he’s not going to last forever.

With edelman and amendola out, has anyone popped out to you on film that might actually stick around

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Not yet, and I think that’s a big problem and an area to watch this weekend. With all these guys out you’d love to see Chandler or Martin or one of the two new guys signed this week show a spark that indicates they can make plays. We just haven’t seen it yet. No one is really making any plays in the open field any more, or more specifically, making people miss. This is a big detriment to an offense that needs those yards-after-catch. Fingers crossed someone does something to get excited about this weekend, because I’m worried that this offense is only getting easier and easier to shut down with all the injuries. Still, I think if the offensive line can just protect Brady and give him the extra time now required for guys to get open, we’ll be okay.

Even with the signing of Trey Williams, I feel the complete lack of a run game could hurt us in the playoffs. Is there a solution? Is it down to the O-line tweaking or are Blount, White, Bolden just not that good?

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It’s probably going to be the most interesting thing to see in the playoffs, because I think there’s certainly a school of thought that run games aren’t critical when you have a quarterback like Brady. Though Edelman’s status in January is still something I’m very concerned about, I think the loss of Dion Lewis is the biggest killer.

And I don’t think it’s an offensive line issue, I think these guys – Blount, White, Bolden – are who we thought they were. Blount has never been a great player to just generate yards on his own unless it’s the Colts. White hasn’t taken a big step forward like we hoped and Bolden can fill in but isn’t a playmaking running back.

So now we’re stuck trying to generate a ground game while having to work around the lack of talent. If I was going to be critical of the Patriots offseason this is where I’d go. How could we count so much on Lewis (or Gaffney)?

Still, will it matter? Can Blount run over the Colts in the playoffs again if we see them? Possibly. The bigger question is can we put games away? I believe in “Throw to score, run to win”, but can we still run to win? Certainly it doesn’t help that Edelman might not be there, or at least might be less than 100% and he’s a key third down guy. 

Even with Lewis coming back next year, they need to really address this position this offseason with a Ridley-esque back. Someone who can make people miss when the initial hole isn’t quite there and still get those four yards. Honestly at this point I’d settle for a Benjarvus Green-Ellis, unspectacular but runs hard out of the backfield and never loses yardage.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 13 vs. Philadephia Eagles

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It’s hard to believe it’s already Week 13 and we’re on the verge of the last quarter of the 2016 season! Each week the playoffs get a little bit closer and hopefully the return of some of our key players who have been lost since the Week Four bye week.

This Patriots offense is now a shell of what it was in those first three weeks when they looked unstoppable. The NFL season is one of attrition and more often than not it’s the healthiest teams that make the biggest pushes to the Super Bowl. But the Pats keep grinding regardless of their personnel losses and this week figures to be maybe their biggest test yet without Rob Gronkowski.

The only silver lining is that there really isn’t anyone for defenses to key on anymore, and there’s no longer anyone for Brady to really lock in on either. The current shape of the team reminds me a lot of the 2001-2004 teams where there weren’t really any “elite” weapons, just guys who got open and made plays on offense, and a defense that was in its prime.

The Eagles season is hanging by a thread. Yes, they’re still within striking distance of the NFC East title, but they’ve lost three in a row and looked listless in their latest loss to the Lions, generating just 227 yards of offense. Meanwhile their defense has given up 951 total yards of offense the last two weeks.

Here’s the gameplan to dispatch the Eagles and get back on track as we hit the three-quarter point of the season…

Offensive Gameplan

Despite getting lit up the last two weeks, the Eagles defense is not as terrible as it would seem and with the Patriots depleted weaponry it’s not a stretch to think moving the ball will be tough for Tom Brady.

It would really help to get Danny Amendola back, and from the sound of it, there seems to be a good chance he’s back. That would leave him, Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler as the offensive core, with a sprinkling of Keshawn Martin. I think it’s just too soon to expect anything from newcomers Trey Williams (RB) or Damaris Johnson (WR).

The good news is that with Sebastian Vollmer moving to LT it seems like the offensive line is starting to settle in and that’s what it all starts with. If Brady feels comfortable it won’t really matter who he is throwing the ball to. Playing at home I expect the offensive line to really start looking good, but the Eagles’ pass rushers like Connor Barwin (who has always seemed like a perfect Patriots fit to me btw), Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are talented and can cause problems.

The bad news is losing Gronk really kills what the Pats can do, especially without his blocking. Chandler would seem to be the top fit, but he’s not the blocker Gronk is, so you can’t just slide him into the Y-TE spot and expect him to seal the edge or dominate his man like Gronk could in the running game.

And yes, it’s the running game that has been the biggest significant problem for the 2015 Patriots post-Dion Lewis. So now, if the Pats want to establish the run, they’ll like have to three tackles out there, or Michael Williams at TE if he is back in the lineup. So their intentions will be clear by their personnel and given the struggles with the run game even with Gronk, it’s unlikely it can be a run-heavy attack with Chandler in there.

So this all points me to the direction of leaning toward a spread approach, but again, it’s not like the wide receiver depth is great right now. But if you have Amendola and LaFell that’s a good start, but the real key will be Chandler because the tight end spot is so vital to keep the chains moving.

Perhaps we see James White get thrown into the fire, but at this point I’m no longer holding my breath and would love to at least see Trey Williams thrown into the fire ala Danny Woodhead in 2010 sooner rather than later.

There aren’t a ton of options and this will make the Patriots intentions clear from the start of the game. Still, if the OL protects Brady, they should be okay.

Defensive Gameplan

Dont’a Hightower has been at practice this week with his sprained MCL, wearing a brace, and signs are also pointing to Jamie Collins finally coming back as well this week. If those two guys are back in, we’ll finally have our defense back.

Collins is the gamechanger, not only for what he can do, but what he then allows Hightower to do. Collins is also a huge upgrade on Jonathan Freeny who’s been playing a ton in Collins’ absence. Freeny has been serviceable but is not a dynamic playmaker in any aspect of the game.

With their full complement of pass rushers, except for possibly Dominique Easley who has missed practice this week with an ankle injury, the Patriots should be able to attack the Eagles quarterback and force mistakes. Expect rookie Geneo Grissom to see some time as a third down pass rusher.

Due to the lack of depth at cornerback with Justin Coleman still out with a hand injury, it’s likely the Pats will match up on the Eagles’ wide outs. Butler on Jordan Matthews would make sense to avoid allowing him to matchup on Patrick Chung from the slot on third downs.

With their defense just about fully intact the Patriots should be well-prepared to counter the Eagles no huddle pace. As always, the biggest key is winning the one-on-one matchups up front. Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard should be ready to make some noise and it can only help by having Jamie Collins back behind them.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Force Feed Chandler – I’m not convinced Julian Edelman is going to just step back in and be the unstoppable playmaker he was before. Hence if this team is going to make a Super Bowl run they’ll need to develop another weapon to go with LaFell/Amendola, hopefully a fully good-to-go Gronk and whatever Edelman can bring with his foot still not 100% (assuming that he even does come back for the first playoff game). Chandler has to be that guy, and now with Gronk out, Brady and Chandler have no choice but to find some chemistry. They’ve shown flashes of it at times, but Chandler’s drops and the other targets have made it easy for Brady to look away from him. Chandler has the size and talent to be far better than he’s been. It’s now or never.

2. Witness the Power of a Fully Operational Defense – I know Hightower might not play and even if he does he might be a little hobbled, but if he does suit up along with Collins it will be the first time we’ve had them both out there in over a month. Yes, the Pats have plenty of talent, but the combo of Hightower and Collins is transformative and opens up the full bag of tricks the Patriots have on defense. Is this the week we see that peak defense? Maybe. But it’s coming and once they’re all back at full power we’ll see just how far they can take us.

3. Protect Brady – This should always be a key, but without Gronk or Edelman it’s especially true this week. If the offensive line has a bad game the Patriots could very well lose this game. Their run game has been anemic and it’s hard to argue they can suddenly be better this week. Maybe if the game unfolds just right they can get LeGarrette Blount going, but what we can’t expect is them to come out an “establish the run”. So it looks like a heavy throwing game for Brady, and without guys who can get open quick (outside of hopefully Amendola), Brady will need time. It’s up to the pass protection to give it to hime.

4. Find a Gem – Maybe this one is just wishful thinking but the offense really lacked playmakers against the Broncos, leaving the Pats to cobble together a competent performance from guys who can’t make defenders miss in space. I don’t know if Keshawn Martin or the new guys Trey Williams or Damaris Johnson are those kind of guys, but at this point there’s no reason not to throw them into the fire and see what they can do. Probably a long shot wtih Williams and Johnson since they haven’t even been in New England a week, but maybe if the Pats get a bit of a lead, it couldn’t hurt to get the ball in their hands and see if they can break a tackle or two.

5. Win – As always, it’s the most important thing and with a shrunken lead in the AFC the Pats need to get back on track with their 11th win of the season. But it won’t be easy, that’s for sure, especially with the Eagles needing a win to save their season. But if the Pats can put some points on the board early it’s possible the Eagles will roll over. The better thing for the Patriots overall might just be needing a sixty minute effort, something they didn’t turn in against the Broncos. As much as I’d like a stress-free blowout, winning a close contest might be a better building block toward a Super Bowl run. But honestly, just give me a game without a major injury. I’m praying Gronk’s survival last week will turn the tide.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Eagles 13