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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 14 at Houston Texans

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The final quarter of the 2015 season begins with the Patriots needing a win to get back on track against a team filled with their former coaches and players in Houston. We’ve seen former Patriot games in the past – Mangini with the Jets, Romeo Crennel with the Browns, Matt Cassel has popped up a couple times as well, along with Thomas Dimitroff and the Falcons, but this is the most fascinating one yet. 

Obviously so much of what Bill O’Brien is trying to build with the Texans is influenced directly by Bill Belichick and O’Brien’s time in New England. That message is only reinforced by defensive coordinator RAC, linebackers coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator George Godsey. So in many ways, the Patriots are facing a slightly distorted mirror image of themselves with one major difference at the quarterback position.

Of all Brady’s former backups Hoyer has always been my favorite. Not that he’s the best, but I like the way he competes and I’ve been rooting for him to catch a break for a long time. So it sucks that we’re going to have to destroy him this week but that’s how it goes.

Beyond the similarities and connections, both of these teams really need this game. Houston is on the bubble for the playoffs, while the Patriots are on the bubble for a bye. Neither team has much margin for error left, so if you’re a fan of football this game should be interesting to watch on a number of levels.

Here’s the gameplan for the Pats to break their two-game losing streak at the expense of some old friends.

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Offensive Gameplan

When the Giants were looking at how to slow down the Patriots in Super Bowl 42 one game they studied was the Pats 34-17 win over Romeo Crennel’s Browns. Now that score doesn’t look like the Browns had Brady et al figured out, but Moss and Welker combined for just 7 catches for 65 yards. 

Obviously things are much different now, but it shows that Romeo Crennel has a good feel for what the Patriots like to do on offense. Has that changed now? Yes, but Crennel has plenty of pieces to give New England problems.

The biggest one is of course JJ Watt who will be playing despite a broken hand. The thought of Watt one-on-one against Marcus Cannon gives me the spins. But they’ll move Watt around as well, and really, any matchup along our offensive line, outside of maybe Vollmer, isn’t ideal. After seeing Fletcher Cox abuse Josh Kline and Shaq Mason especially last week, I’m not feeling great about taking Watt out of the game.

Then there’s old pal Vince Wilfork who must be looking forward to his own interior matchups against two rookies at guard, though I will say that Brian Stork is playing like a maniac right now and should hold up well against Wilfork.

Add in Jadaveon Clowney and the Pats have plenty to worry about with the Texans’ front. The ideal way to take them out of the game, especially if Gronk is out again, is the quick passing game.

That’s always the bread and butter, but the Pats have gotten away from it in recent weeks because guys like LaFell, Chandler and Martin just can’t get open as quickly as Edelman, Lewis and Gronk could.

Teams with dynamic run games have run well on the Texans this year – Buffalo put up 187 yards last week – but let’s not kid ourselves, we haven’t had a dynamic run game since Lewis went down. Blount showed signs of life last week, but the Pats ignored the run in the early third quarter and abandoned it entirely as the Eagles’ lead grew.

So as I see it, let’s finally commit to the James White spread offense with 11 personnel. Use Michael Williams as an extra blocker. LaFell on the outside, Martin and Amendola on the inside, and let Brady go to work with the quick passing game.

Defensive Gameplan

Two big things to watch in this one – whether Dont’a Hightower is back and whether Malcolm Butler gets DeAndre Hopkins.

If Hightower is back we can finally start building the defense back up for the playoffs. He and Collins are devastating together. They’re both good on their own of course, but having them both out there makes them both so much better. We might have to wait another week on Hightower though.

There’s no question, the Texans offense is Hopkins. He has 10 TDs and twice the targets, catches and yards of any other weapon on their roster. We talk about Belichick making teams play left-handed, well that means taking Hopkins out of the game. 

But my question is can Butler do it alone, or is Hopkins such a big part of the offense it’s worth putting Harmon over the top of him as well? Hoyer isn’t afraid to take shots to Hopkins and whether or not the Texans get any big plays out of them will define how successful they are on offense.

Another interesting matchup is Cecil Shorts in the slot. I’d assume Logan Ryan gets Nate Washington, but can the Pats continue using Patrick Chung in the slot corner role vs. Shorts? Justin Coleman could be back, or new signee Leonard Johnson could get thrown into the mix as well, but Shorts seems like he’d be a mismatch with Chung, who missed Wednesday practice with a foot injury (he was back Thursday).

Otherwise up front the Pats will do what they do. Malcolm Brown gets better each week and forms a solid interior with Alan Branch. Dominique Easley missed last week’s game but should be good to go this week. Would love to see him start making a consistent impact one of these games. He’s flashed at times, but was largely invisible against the Broncos when he was really needed.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Take Away Hopkins – This is probably a two-man job with Butler getting him in man coverage and Harmon going over the top. The drop off to Washington, and Shorts is that extreme, and with the way Logan Ryan is playing it’s really Shorts that could be the problem. We’re well-familiar with this result – the Pats take away the star receiver and then some nobody kills them. I don’t think Hoyer/Shorts have that game in them.

2. Help with Watt – Even with one bum hand, the Pats need to find Watt on every snap and make sure there are two guys to block him, especially when it’s Marcus Cannon on the edge. I’d basically make Michael Williams into Watt’s shadow, whether he has to be on the edges or even in the backfield. Watt cannot destroy this game.

3. Aggressive Defense – The Pats aren’t a very aggressive defense, at least in terms of sending blitzers, but I think this is the week to throw the sink at Hoyer. Of course it’s a lot easier if Hightower and Collins are out there, they’re devastating when it comes to the A-gap blitzes. Hoyer struggles most when he feels the pressure coming so forcing him to make the right read for the quick throws should force him into mistakes.

4. Brady Trust the New Guys – I saw quite a few instances of Brady ignoring Chandler or Martin when they were open last week. He needs to stop trying to force things and return to his old strategy of his favorite receiver being the open one. He has to stop forcing things to LaFell to try and get him on track. Lean on Martin and Amendola, and most especially, James White. This offense is best when the 3rd down back is heavily involved, so the more touches for White, the better.

5. Win – The down period for this season is over. It’s time now to start getting healthy and re-establishing our identity on offense and defense. The Texans are not pushovers and they should come out with a fearless gameplan with some unexpected twists that old Pats coaches always seem to break out. Most of all I just want to see a full 60 minute effort out of the 2015 Pats. It seems like they haven’t put one of those together in forever. Hopefully a two-game losing streak has captured everyone’s attention and with the playoffs approaching, now is the time to kick our best football into gear.

Prediction – Patriots 24, Texans 13

Patriots vs. Eagles Film Review

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Little late on my film review this week, usually I like to get these things over with after a loss. Still it was good to get a closer look at things and shockingly I started with the offensive side of the ball.

Here’s what stood out in the All-22.

– The Eagles rushed only three guys a lot in this one, often with four deep defenders and their other four in the middle zones. It was effective because the offense is just not as sharp as it was with Edelman and Gronk.

– Keshawn Martin is playing the Edelman role in the offense now, but he struggles to get open quickly and definitely doesn’t have the surest hands either. Another thing that stuck out with him was how he couldn’t quite run the rub routes like Edelman does. This is a fine line between doing it well and getting a penalty, he just doesn’t have the experience and savvy quite yet.

– Replacing Gronk was done by committee as expected, you can’t just plug Chandler into the Y-TE role and ask him to block like Gronk does so Watson and Williams had magnified roles. Chandler (at the 46 yard line) should’ve gotten the ball on the first third down of the game below, instead Brady tried to hit LaFell deep, a recurring theme in this one. Just seems like Brady doesn’t quite trust Chandler yet and when he does go to him Chandler’s been inconsistent. Still a work in progress there.

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– I’d like to see more of James White, or at least see him made more of a focal point in the offense rather than just a rotational guy, which he still seemed to be despite his best statistical game of his career. Each week he’s taking small steps, but if the Pats are going to make a Super Bowl run I believe they have to embrace White more.

– Always hate to be critical of Brady but this wasn’t a great game for him. I think part of it is just trying to do too much, looking too hard for kill shots. There are guys open but he’s not finding them and often when he is, they’re dropping the ball. They had 17 third downs against the Eagles and 11 of them were eight yards or longer. That’s not winning on first and second down, and when they really got away from the run in the second half, Brady missing the easy 4-6 yarders really started to hurt.

– Glad that Josh Kline was at practice on Wednesday, but Fletcher Cox pretty much had his way with him all game long.

– Nothing against the guy personally, but Brandon Bolden might be my least favorite Patriots running back of all time. Pretty much the opposite of dynamic. As I’ve said before, he gets what’s there and no more.

– Again, why they abandoned the run in the second half I have no idea. They ran it 8 times in the second half, four of which were Brady sneaks. In the first half they ran it 17 times and averaged over four yards-per-carry.

– The play before Brady’s goal line pick six the Eagles got instant pressure while Cannon/Jackson/Stork and White were trying to block just two guys. Just gross. See below…

– Incredible how smooth Brady was on the trick play where he caught the ball for 36 yards. But right after that came his second interception which I’d say should not have been thrown even if LaFell broke off the route. Too many chuck-it-ups in this one and I feel like Brady was again going for a kill shot when they just needed a score on this drive more than a big play.

– The furious comeback fell just short, but credit to the Pats for hanging in there. Always a good sign and the biggest silver lining that can be taken from this loss. But the other silver lining has to be James White. He earned more trust in this one and is the only new guy showing consistent separation and ability to make defenders miss. We could look back as this being the game that the offense started to return to form with White being a big piece going forward.

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This morning we’re taking a closer look at the latest DVOA numbers from Football Outsiders, broken down by receivers the Patriots have faced. Now the talent levels are a little different than last year, but can you really fault Belichick for letting Revis and Browner go after seeing these numbers? 

Kyle Arrington has fallen off a cliff in Baltimore so it’s not like keeping him around necessarily fixes the “Other WR” ranking. I also think the RB number (20th) would be a little better had Collins not missed four games either.

But I do think rounding out the corner depth and providing competition for Coleman (who I like) in the slot.

Lean times 2008-203 though, eh?

https://www.patspropaganda.com/this-morning-were-taking-a-closer-look-at-the/

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6. Jabaal Sheard, DE, Patriots (two years, $11 million, 83.3)
Sheard has missed some time with injury, but when he’s been on the field, he’s been terrific. Despite playing only 370 snaps, Sheard is eighth among 4-3 DE in hurries (28), leaving him trailing only Ziggy Ansah in pass rush productivity among that group. He’s also added 15 stops on the season, as well.

10 Best Free Agent Signings Through Week 13

Have to agree, Sheard has been the perfect addition we all thought he would be. Would love to see him stick around past 2016.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/6-jabaal-sheard-de-patriots-two-years-11/

Edelman was at the tree lighting as a guest of honor. No boot, walked fine, no limp. Seems to be doing better, ahead of schedule. Knock on wood that his recovery stays on track and progresses as nicely as it has but if he doesn’t come back, I don’t see a Super Bowl for us. His presence on offense is significantly missed and I don’t see dola picking up the slack and making those cuts like he does

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Thanks for the info, and Edelman was also seen in Boston this weekend with a similar report. As I’m sure everybody knows, walking around is one thing, cutting on a dime to get instantly open is another. The other thing is how quickly can Edelman get up to game speed? Remember Brandon LaFell’s first game back? What if that’s Edelman in a playoff game? (Maybe that’s a bad example since LaFell isn’t Edelman, bust still)…

Honestly if the receivers would just catch the ball I think the Patriots will be fine and make a decent run at the Super Bowl no matter where Edelman’s at. For all the stats that we can throw around at the dropoff of the offense without Lewis, Edelman and Gronk, they’re still moving the ball and even had a chance at an impossible comeback. They’re still feeling things out a bit and establishing an identity, but if Martin and LaFell pick up the slack things will be okay.

The thing is, this defense is primed for a Super Bowl run once Hightower gets back. If they can avoid a significant injury going in the next four games (certainly not a given with the way this season has gone), this will be the best I’ve felt about our defense going into a playoff run since 2007.

Pats Posits: Tuesday Edition – Reacting to the Over-reacting

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To be honest I don’t really read or listen to a lot of the Pats analysis out there, but it’s always fun to wake up on a Monday after a loss to find out what people are apoplectic about. The loss to the Eagles was the classic example of some days you just don’t have the magic. Not to say the Pats couldn’t have won that game or that they didn’t shoot themselves in the foot, but this is the NFL. Every team has talent and regardless of records or how they looked last week, any team can beat any team on any Sunday.

Of course there are those who live in the alternate universe where the Pats get no credit for beating teams that don’t have winning records and subsequently get crucified for losing a game to one of them. It’s an easy way to give them no credit for winning more games than anyone else while simultaneously giving them all the blame when they happen to lose. Now they can declare everything that’s wrong with this Patriots team and why they won’t win the Super Bowl, etc. So yeah, that’s why I don’t need to hear what those kind of “pundits” are saying.

Aside from the obvious errors on special teams and bad throws by Brady, the problem is obvious. The receivers don’t get open as fast now, Brady has to hold the ball longer, the offensive line has to protect longer and everything has slowed down. The Eagles often flooded the field with zone defenders and that exposed the Patriots’ problems.

From WEEI.com:

Brady took an average of 2.63 seconds from snap-to-throw, his highest average of the season. Furthermore, Brady had 16 plays which took more than three seconds, something very uncharacteristic for the Patriots offense. Brady has averaged over 2.2 seconds from snap-to-throw in four straight games, which comes following the first eight games where he only had one game averaging over 2.2 seconds.

The defense was actually pretty good and will be even better when Hightower gets back. I am excited about this defense in the playoffs and there is still every reason to be excited about them.

The special teams problems were an outlier and won’t happen again.

So really, all that matters is the offense finding their groove once again and that’s something that is possible even before Gronk and Edelman return. They had flashes of it against the Eagles, they just couldn’t string it all together without a couple of game-deciding mistakes.

This season continues to feel like a weird version of 2013, with injuries piling up and constantly keeping the team in a state of flux. Last year, there wasn’t a single major injury outside of Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley, both of which happened early in the season. Each week the 2014 team seemed to be building on past performance and confirming their identity.

But this year they’ve been constantly adjusting to the latest injuries and after a white hot start they’ve been in triage mode every week since early October, trying to find ways to win without their top pieces. The offense is now a shadow of what it was in September. Maybe that’s an excuse, but it’s also a fact.

All that said, I still think the Patriots have the inside track on the top seed. The Broncos and Bengals play each other as well as the hot Steelers. There are losses in there for both of those teams. But the bye is so important with those Edelman and Gronkowski injuries. Even if they don’t get the one seed I think their chances in Denver or Cincinnati. The extra week of rest is critical.

It all just comes down to how quickly they can get their offense back and so much of it depends on the status of Edelman. I still hesitate to assume he’ll be back, because even if he is can he still get open immediately and make the impossible third-down catches in traffic? That’s asking a lot.

This might be the most interesting December we’ve had in New England in a long time, at least since 2008 where they were right on the playoff bubble. Needing wins at Jets and at Dolphins could really make those last two games meaningful and difficult. Let’s hope we’ve got at least 87 or 11 back for those.

Pats Posits: Any Given Sunday Applies to Pats Too

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It’s been a while since the Patriots lost a game like this. Losses marred by bad football are something Bill Belichick has distanced himself from in 15 years in New England.

But that’s what an ill-advised drop kickoff, a blocked punt for TD, a punt return for TD and a 99-yard pick six easily add up to. Yes, the Pats hung in there until the end, but the scoreboard doesn’t tell the story at 35-28.

The offense and defense weren’t particularly bad. Brady had two ill-advised interceptions but given the offensive pieces the Pats were rolling out there, it’s hard to be too upset with guys like Keshawn Martin for not making a clutch fourth down catch to keep the Pats’ hopes alive. Those are plays for people like Julian Edelman.

The defense failed to get a big third down stop near the end of the game, but did come through with Jamie Collins’ forced fumble, a clutch play in his return after missing four games. They didn’t see the field for a large chunk of the third quarter, but only allowed two scoring drives in the game.

It was as ugly a loss as we see in these parts and there’s plenty more to break down. Here are the Posits…

Big picture, this loss hurts in the playoff race for homefield advantage, but with the Bengals and Broncos still to play, the door is still open to a second-seed bye if the Patriots win out. But now, they might have to win out, and three of the last four are on the road, including two against teams (as of now) fighting for a playoff spot. This is going to be a drag out fight to the end for that extra week of rest, and boy do the Pats look like they need it.

I can’t remember the last time the Patriots lost a game because of multiple special teams breakdowns. Nine of the last ten years they’ve been ranked in the top ten in league special teams DVOA. An occasional snafu sure? Compounding, game-losing mistakes in bunches? Never.

So that makes it a little easier to swallow. It was out of conference and despite the huge deficit late in the game, they kept fighting and took it down to the wire. Even when the Patriots get blown out, it’s still close.

Does it hurt to see we’re now the #3 AFC seed? Sure. But let’s be honest, with the offensive weaponry the Pats have right now, they’re not the best team in the conference and are just trying to keep their head above water until they at least get Rob Gronkowski
 back.

I like the aggressiveness on the dropkickoff, like they were just trying to break the Eagles then and there, but it was really the spark that ignited a complete reversal in game momentum. So in hindsight, yeah maybe better just to kick it deep and save the dropkickoff. Not the first time an overly aggressive playcall has bit us in the ass with Belichick.

I think that was responsible for the TD on the ensuing drive, but I think the bigger meltdowns that came next – the blocked punt TD to tie it before the half, then the 99-yd interception TD near the start of the second half – were more about a team without an identity right now, and the injuries are certainly catching up with them on the field and in their heads. 

James White’s 10 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown is a silver lining. It still doesn’t seem the Patriots trust him entirely yet, but he must’ve gained some trust and confidence in him after his performance against the Eagles.

I liked how they worked Damaris Johnson in early with a couple touches. They need to find player who can make people miss. More of him please.

Danny Amendola was very solid after missing a game, and despite some drops, Scott Chandler is still hanging in there. They still can’t use Chandler in a Y-TE blocking role so they have to swap him and Michael Williams around, limiting the playbook. 

Wanted more out of LaFell in this one (five catches, nine targets), though he did have a key catch on the second-to-last drive, taking it down inside the five-yard line. I guess outside receivers can only be so effective in this offense, while inside guys and tight ends have to keep the chains moving, but he still needs to catch the ball.

The defense forced seven punts and one fumble, giving up just two scoring drives – the short field one post dropkickoff (eight plays, 59 yards) and the clincher drive, a 12-play, 80 yarder capped with a touchdown to make it 35-14 early in the fourth quarter. Hard to be too upset with the defense, despite that long drive and failing to get a stop on the last third down they saw.

I missed Jamie Collins. Once Hightower gets back too…

I’m guessing this will get plenty of action this week, but the Eagles were false starting throughout the game, and did so clear as day on the the last third down, where the RT was already kicking out to block Jabaal Sheard before the snap. I can understand that pass interference calls have a lot of moving parts, but if the refs can’t catch something as simple as a false start what are they doing out there?

Brady looked incredibly natural catching that pass! And on the bright side, someday that will be the only thing we remember about this game. It was a great play at the time, but all the good feelings were killed when Brady threw the bad pick the very next play. It was like he was feeling a little too good – like this was suddenly the 2014 offense and nothing could go wrong. 

Josh Kline looks to be the latest offensive player to get injured and leave the game, he’s the sixth offensive line starter to get injured as well. Hopefully it’s not a season-ended. Tough to tell. Was ruled a “shoulder”. 

The special teams are not going to have this kind of meltdown again, but the Patriots are now hanging by a thread as far as controlling their own fate in the conference. This week’s matchup against the former-Patriot laden Texans is fascinating. What I wouldn’t give to hear the conversations between Bill O’Brien, Romeo Crennel
, Mike Vrabel
, Vince Wilfork and Brian Hoyer, among others behind closed doors.

The Patriots’ offense will have a huge challenge, especially if they have to face JJ Watt without their most consistent interior offensive lineman this year. Starting two rookies against that front is far from ideal.

The 2015 season is three-quarters over and the Patriots are hanging on, but far from Super Bowl favorites if they don’t eliminate the sloppy play that showed up way too much against the Eagles. I believe the whole team was still reeling somewhat from the loss in Denver. That kind of loss, plus the way Gronk went out, has a way of being a dark cloud and I think it lingered a bit. They just froze in the face of adversity for the second week – which is a little troubling.

Still, it’s the kind of thing they can usually clean up. 

This loss should put Denver and Gronk to bed. They’ll turn the page, but it’s clear they’ll struggle to make it out of the AFC without Gronkowski and Edelman. They must find a way to turn the tide in Houston, a place that hasn’t been great to them since winning Super Bowl 38 there.