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Greg Cosell’s Film Review: How Denver’s D dominated the Patriots
Always enjoy Greg Cosell’s breakdowns even when they’re about the season-ender. It’s hard to believe the Patriots would be so slow, or even refuse outright to adjust to what Wade Phillips was doing on defense. They’ve seen it all before. How was there no counter punch to help Brady find a rhythm?
My Patriots needs as of a month ago haven’t really changed much after the post-season non-fun. Here they are again, with some notes as to why I’ve initially ranked them this way.
Here’s how the depth chart currently looks, along with free agents. I starred the priority guys for me. Branch and Mayo have orange boxes signifying their options this offseason.
Here’s a rough outline for a plan this offseason.
Don’t see much interest out there for Mayo, at least not enough to get him to leave New England even if the Pats offered him a vet minimum type deal after declining his option. Does he have anything left in the tank? Didn’t look like it this year though he started to make some plays down the stretch. Given his favored status with BB I could see him getting one last shot on a team-friendly deal. Either way, LB depth is a priority.
Bostic did nothing after the Pats traded for him and is an easy cut unless there were lingering injury issues they’d like to give him a chance to get through. Amendola is an interesting one, due to make $5 million with a $6.8 million cap hit. They’re still paying for the overpriced contract they gave him two years ago, and had to already re-do it once last season to spread out his hit a little bit. Seems possible he might not return unless he’s willing to do the Pats another favor.
Pats have an option on Branch that would pay him the same salary as this year: $1.2 million. The $2.75 million cap hit might be a little rich for the Pats, but Branch was consistently good this season and made for a great starting inside pair with Malcolm Brown. Must bring at least him or Hicks back, and Branch is far more affordable.
Not a lot of priority internal free agents this year but next offseason is brutal so they need to start locking guys up now. Hightower is my top priority, he’s the heart of the defense now and gets just a slight nod over Jamie Collins, who is nearly as important. Sheard was everything we’d hoped he’d be last season, and was playing over Chandler Jones in the playoffs. He should be a long-term building block. Butler should get done before the end of the 2016 season, but for the Pats, who don’t overpay the corner position, it will be interesting to see how they value Butler.
Pats are in a good position with Chandler in that they can just let him play out the last year of his contract, because he still has something to prove. They have the depth to replace him though and that’s why he could be trade bait. A Sheard-Ninkovich-Flowers-Grissom DE group would be okay assuming Flowers builds on how he looked in limited action last summer. Either way, I don’t think Chandler’s with the Pats past 2016.
Coleman was really underrated in the slot and despite injuries and a concussion came on in the playoffs. They’ll want to keep him around for sure. Develin’s return would really help the struggling run game and give the offense another dynamic they missed this year. Fleming stays cause we can’t cut all the tackles. King was extremely underrated on special teams and could be needed to fill a void that Brandon Bolden/Nate Ebner might leave via free agency.
We can take a shot at Hicks but it seems likely he’ll get more elsewhere after getting that new Patriots smell rubbed all over him this season. Tarrell Brown looked like a starter in training camp and would be the perfect kind of veteran to bring in to the corner mix again rather than trolling for someone new who may or may not get it. Always liked Fletcher and linebacker depth is a need, especially someone like him with good quickness and coverage ability. Keeping Ebner over Wilson for special teams. Wilson replaceable by King, Fletcher.
Don’t get too crazy with delusions of big name, high priced guys here with all the internal guys who need to be secured. The Amendola/Mayo/Fletcher/Cannon/Vollmer situations will impact the needs here and must play out first. One name I liked before the draft is WR Mohammad Sanu who has good size and can do a number of different things. Otherwise I’m looking at mid-range vets coming off injuries or sub-par seasons who will be reasonably priced.
Again, we have to go through free agency first to really get a sense on draft needs but generally the draft is about the long term. These are the positions that need young depth more than anywhere else. And I’m throwing QB on there because it would make sense if you think Brady can get another couple years out of his body past 2017, the last year of his current deal (which is also the last year of Garoppolo’s. At this point, the more young QBs we can groom under Brady the better.
It’s the first day of the offseason which of course means that everyone’s an expert about what the Patriots need to do this season (aside from just get healthy, because let’s be honest, that’s about 75 percent of it).
You have the WEAPONZZZZZ! crowd who think Alshon Jeffery and every other big name free agent wide receiver is the answer, and the ‘blow up the entire offensive line’ crowd is pretty vocal right now as well.
The important thing is to look at the overall big picture and not overreact to one loss that came almost exclusively at the hands of one of the best defenses in football having one of their best games and hitting Brady more than he was his all season.
Solder comes back and I like the offensive line core. You have two good young centers, two young rookie guards who looked promising entering their second year and then Kline should probably be the interior swing guy.
I do wonder about right tackle, because you have to think Vollmer’s best days are behind him even if he can stay at right tackle. As for Cannon I think he’s at best a backup right tackle. Both are entering their final years of their deals and will make a combined $11 million. Very possible at least one gets cut, but both seems scary, and it doesn’t seem like they’re ready to throw Cam Fleming in there any time soon.
So yes, right tackle (preferably someone who’s athletic) is a need, but it’s really one of the easier positions to find. Can they squeeze another year out of Vollmer? I’d be fine to try.
Receiver does feel like another priority but I think this is one area people are way overreacting right now. I don’t think we simply throw LaFell by the wayside because he regressed this year. Let’s remember he dealt with a foot injury all season long and some of his tweets today seem to point to that as a reason why he was less effective.
No harm in giving him a full offseason to get healthy and see if he can recapture the magic. There’s no guarantee anyone else is going to come in and “get it” like LaFell did in 2014.
And of course the “deep threat-ers” are out in force today as well, but they need to play to Brady’s strengths. Amendola could be a restructure candidate again, or could just get cut outright. Edelman will turn 30 this year. They need to add some logs to the wide receiver fire, but I’d focus as much on the smart, shifties as the big, run fasties.
How much of a role is Keshawn Martin ready to take on? Seemed like the Denver game was a chance for him to show something and he didn’t show much. Still, they extended him so they must see some kind of potential. Best case scenario (for him) is that he replaces Amendola in the slot), but I’d kinda prefer to maybe look for some more size inside.
One free agent I really liked coming out who has been getting thrown around today is Mohammad Sanu. Yes, he’s a Rutgers guy but I think he’d be a dynamic threat the Pats could use in a number of ways.
Another area to look long and hard at is running back. The Pats had no running game against the Broncos and were completely one dimensional. Blount is a free agent and while I’d take him back I still think he’s better in a 1B closer role. Dion Lewis will be back along with James White so you have to like the receiving back depth. I mean, if Lewis was healthy the Pats would be in the Super Bowl, I have no doubt.
So that leaves a 1A back who can get those early tough yards and loosen things up. Not talking anything crazy, just like what Stevan Ridley did. That could be a draft position. Still curious about Tyler Gaffney too.
Defensively I think the main focus is extending Hightower first, maybe Collins as well. But definitely Hightower and unfortunately that will probably come as a harsh reality to Chandler Jones. I’d re-sign Tarrell Brown after he looked pretty good last summer, but with major paydays coming to the front seven there won’t be much big spending elsewhere on that side of the ball. Coleman and Johnson showed good promise and Ryan/Butler was legitimate starters.
Mayo is likely gone, but I could see him back on a vet minimum kind of deal because he’s not going to have much of a market. Remember he could get some pop back a full two years removed from the torn patellar tendon. Not holding my breath on his resurgence though, so if there’s one position to consider in the upper half of the draft on defense it’s linebacker.
Remember, to turn in the season we turned in with so many guys not only on IR, but walking wounded in almost every key spot, is so so impressive. Maybe some will see that as a cop out or excuse, but the Patriots lost more man games to injury than any other team and still came within a two-point conversion from going back to the Super Bowl. No other team could’ve done that.
With better injury luck next year it’s hard to see who will stand in the Pats way in the AFC.
And that’s all she wrote on the 2015 Patriots after getting thoroughly dominated by the Broncos’ defense in Denver. I didn’t think the Broncos could win a straight-up fight. And while there were quite a few fluky dumbass plays by the Pats, it basically came down to the Broncos defense dominating the Patriots offense.
So full credit to them. We’ve see seasons end like this before. Does it mean blow everything up? Not even close. The entire core returns next season, and with players returning from injury like Nate Solder and Dion Lewis, the Patriots offense is already much better today than it was as they walked off the field in Denver.
But this one was every bit as maddening as past season-enders have been. They weren’t as sharp as they needed to be from the outset. That included a stupid headbutt by Stork that backed them up after a big punt return by Amendola.
I do think the Patriots were late to realize the Broncos offense was done, in hindsight taking field goals at the end probably would’ve won the game. They always err on the side of aggression so I can live with it.
What was brutally apparent was that as soon as the Pats punted on their first possession after winning the toss and receiving, they would be playing catchup the rest of the game. The Broncos had their best drive on their first drive, and never came close to a long sustained drive the rest of the game.
Saw plenty of complaints out there about not deferring, but it’s not that uncommon as we think. They received against Denver in 2013 as well, along with two other times that season. It certainly backfired in this one.
The Pats defense deserves a lot of credit too. They didn’t get much help and they forced five punts and let up just a field goal in the second half. They stopped the run. They got to Manning. They did everything a defense needs to do in the playoffs. And they’re all coming back.
Despite the constant catchup, I really liked our chances for most of the game. Even without their best game, the Pats still went down to the wire and went down swinging. They will never be a team that simply folds and it’s a point of pride no matter how the season ends.
Will take a few days to wrap up the season and then it’s on to free agency and the draft. Another offseason is upon us. Ugh.
