PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Measuring the Patriots “Bend-Don’t-Break” Defense

by

If you’ve seen many Jets fans previewing the upcoming clash you know two things:

  1. They have access to an NFL statistics website.
  2. They look at said statistics sites and are thus confident New England’s poorly ranked defense will be unable to stop the unstoppable Holmes-Crotchery-Edwards-Keller-Tomlinson receiving threats.

But it seems pretty apparent none of the have really watched the Patriots’ games, because if they did they’d know that yes, teams can move the ball on the Pats, especially through the air. However the Patriots are actually ranked 12th in Cold Hard Football Facts’ Bendability Index and have had a knack for coming up with timely interceptions.

CHFF Quality Wins: Pats vs. Jets Comparison

by

So against quality teams the Patriots are 5-1, while the Jets are 2-2. The Pats average 28.5 points for, 22.7 points against. The Jets average 17.0 points for, 14.0 points against. 

So say what you will about the Pats defense but 6 of their 11 games have been against good teams. If the playoffs started today the Jaguars and Jets would be the only AFC playoff teams the Patriots haven’t beaten.

If the Pats win Monday Night and the Colts rebound and win the AFC South, New England will have beaten every AFC playoff participant. Sorry Kansas City, I think the Chargers are taking the AFC West.

2010 Draft Classes: Patriots vs. Jets

by

I could tell you the Patriots have absolutely white washed the Jets when it came to drafting this year but you’ll probably think I’m biased, so I’ll let the excellent Jets blog “Turn on the Jets” tell you. It’s also worth noting that they fail to mention Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love, and Dane Fletcher, all rookies who have played multiple games and contributed…

New England

  • Corner – Devin McCourty – 61 tackles, 5 INTs, 12 PDs
  • Tight End – Rob Gronkowski – 25 receptions, 310 yards, 6 TDs
  • Tight End – Aaron Hernandez – 36 receptions, 462 yards, 3 TDs
  • Linebacker – Brandon Spikes – 54 tackles
  • Punter – Zoltan Mesko – 43.7 yards net average
  • Linebacker – Jermaine Cunningham – 26 tackles, 1 sack

Jets

  • Corner – Kyle Wilson – 20 tackles, 4 PDs
  • Guard – Vladimir Ducasse – Inactive every week but one
  • Running Back – Joe McKnight – Normally inactive, 4 carries, 12 yards
  • Fullback – John Conner – 2 receptions, 9 yards

Let’s be honest, to this point Wilson, Ducasse, and McKnight have all been major disappointments. Drew Coleman has outplayed Wilson all season, who has struggled both at corner and punt returner. Ducasse was easily beaten out by Matt Slauson in training camp for the starting guard job and is the team’s 3rd backup OL behind Wayne Hunter and Robert Turner. McKnight…well, what can you even say about him? At least we have The Terminator leading the way for years to come at fullback.

I don’t know who’s going to win Monday night. But I do know that the Patriots have a lot more talented young players who are locked up long term. Doesn’t mean the Jets won’t continue to sign quality free agents, and from the sound of it every player in the NFL wants to play for Rex Ryan.

While this young Patriots defense has struggled what’s clear is that there are young playmakers at every level, and that bodes very well for New England’s future.

Jets or Pats: Who’s the Pretender?

by

Both the Jets and the Patriots have big buts this season. Sure they share 9-2 records, the best in the NFL, but both teams have issues, or better yet, weaknesses.

We could go back and forth all day about how good the Jets and Patriots really are. The Jets have needed last minute miracles against teams that a Super Bowl contender shouldn’t need last minute miracles against. 

The Patriots have reached 9 wins despite having their pass defense consistently shredded, especially on third down where they rank last in the NFL. Statistically the Patriots look like they have the most glaring weakness, but their 9-2 record is more impressive given the opponents they have defeated. 

But the fact is you can throw the records and the statistics out the window when the Patriots and Jets play. 

What does it all mean?

Both teams have made clutch plays when they needed them most, but after Monday night one will sit at 9-3 and the other will sit at 10-2. Those records might not seem all that different, but the discussion surrounding them will be at opposite ends of the spectrum.

One team will have been exposed as the pretender and the other will be favored to face Atlanta in the Super Bowl. Whether or not either label is true will remain to be seen in each teams four remaining games.

by

Football Outsiders has the Pats at #2 overall in DVOA this week, and as you can tell from the chart their offense has been gaining steam since the loss to the Browns. Check out this little blurb from the posting:

This week, the Patriots move ahead of the 2004 Colts as the second-best offense in DVOA history through Week 12. More astonishing is the fact that New England’s current DVOA of 45.2% matches the 45.2% offensive DVOA that the record-setting 2007 Patriots put up over the entire season. Remember, the 2007 Patriots faded from otherworldly to merely very good over the second half of the season. If the current Patriots don’t have a similar fade, they have a shot to rank as the greatest offense in DVOA history, despite trading a Hall of Fame receiver in midseason.

Pretty impressive, eh? Well this is the week when you can throw all this stuff out the window. A loss to the Jets will really change the course of the Patriots season, just about assuring that they will have to take a Wild Card path in the playoffs.

While the offense has really taken off, special teams and defense have remained flat. If the Patriots are to be considered a true Super Bowl favorite they absolutely must begin to show signs of improvement in both areas. 

The Bend Don’t Break defense is never pretty in the stats column. The only column it is pretty is in the wins one.

Special Teams have been slowly fading since excellent performances early in the season against Miami and Baltimore. This is one area the Pats could use a big play, but that won’t be east against Mike Westhoff’s Jets squad.

(note – the defensive rating is inverted to make it easier to track on the graph.)

https://www.patspropaganda.com/football-outsiders-has-the-pats-at-2-overall-in/