PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

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Football Outsiders has the Pats at #2 overall in DVOA this week, and as you can tell from the chart their offense has been gaining steam since the loss to the Browns. Check out this little blurb from the posting:

This week, the Patriots move ahead of the 2004 Colts as the second-best offense in DVOA history through Week 12. More astonishing is the fact that New England’s current DVOA of 45.2% matches the 45.2% offensive DVOA that the record-setting 2007 Patriots put up over the entire season. Remember, the 2007 Patriots faded from otherworldly to merely very good over the second half of the season. If the current Patriots don’t have a similar fade, they have a shot to rank as the greatest offense in DVOA history, despite trading a Hall of Fame receiver in midseason.

Pretty impressive, eh? Well this is the week when you can throw all this stuff out the window. A loss to the Jets will really change the course of the Patriots season, just about assuring that they will have to take a Wild Card path in the playoffs.

While the offense has really taken off, special teams and defense have remained flat. If the Patriots are to be considered a true Super Bowl favorite they absolutely must begin to show signs of improvement in both areas. 

The Bend Don’t Break defense is never pretty in the stats column. The only column it is pretty is in the wins one.

Special Teams have been slowly fading since excellent performances early in the season against Miami and Baltimore. This is one area the Pats could use a big play, but that won’t be east against Mike Westhoff’s Jets squad.

(note – the defensive rating is inverted to make it easier to track on the graph.)

https://www.patspropaganda.com/football-outsiders-has-the-pats-at-2-overall-in/

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Here’s a snap graph of the Patriots defensive rookies. McCourty just killing it. Peaks for Spikes against heavy run teams. Deaderick resting or falling off? Love improving little by little. Cunningham remaining steady.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/heres-a-snap-graph-of-the-patriots-defensive/

Football Outsiders on Brady’s “Perfect” Game

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TFB was the number one ranked QB last week for his performance versus the Lions. Here’s FO’s breakdown:

For what it’s worth – and it’s not all that much – Brady finished the game with a perfect passer rating of 158.3, the second time in his career he’s had a “perfect game” by the NFL’s system. (The other game was predictably in 2007, when he went 21-of-25 against the Dolphins for 354 yards and six touchdowns.) DYAR agrees that it was the best game of the week, but recognizes that Brady wasn’t all that effective for a fair amount of the game. During the Patriots’ first five drives, Brady dropped back 19 times and picked up just 131 yards and seven first downs. Those drives only produced 10 points. On the Patriots’ final five meaningful drives, Brady had ten dropbacks, all of which were completed passes. He did a little more with them: 219 yards, three first downs, and four touchdowns. The Patriots scored five touchdowns on those five drives. While quarterback rating sees a first-half stretch by Brady with five completions in a row for a total of 24 yards (none of which gained a first down or came close) as positive, DYAR rightly sees them as negative, because they weren’t helping the Patriots produce points.

Trent Dilfer Analysis Fail on Jets D vs. Brady

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This morning I made the mistake of turning on ESPN Sportscenter, something I’ve sworn off for the last couple years, and saw Patriots – Jets coming down the ticker. So of course I had to wait and hear what they had to say and show. First, up pops Trent Dilfer…

Now Trent tells us (his opinion not mine here) that Tom Brady and the Patriots carve up zone coverage teams, but struggle against man coverage teams and that’s what the Jets do. The Jets will make Brady double clutch, buying that extra second for the pass rush to get there. T Dilf also said that the Jets need this game more than the Patriots do.

Okay…

I know Trent is famous for winning a Super Bowl, and maybe more so as the only example in Super Bowl history of a team that won it all without a great quarterback, and on the back of a great defense. Maybe that’s unfair, but I certainly think T Dilf is selling those still addicted to Sportscenter a little short.

Let’s start with this question, how do you beat man coverage? By having wide receivers that are quick and smart, and know how and, more importantly where, to get open. Hmm, have the Patriots made any kind of moves this season that might be an effort to have more of said receivers? That might’ve been useful to mention.

T Dilf used a bunch of footage from the first Jets-Patriots game, most of them with Brady launching those second half forced deep passes to Randy Moss. I’m sure we’ll see plenty more of those next Monday night, won’t we?

And this is neither here nor there but let’s take a look at Brady’s numbers from the second Jets matchup of 2009: 28 of 41, 310 yards, 1 TD. Wes Welker had 15 catches for 192 yards. Yeah, they really struggled against the man coverage that day. Add a player like Deion Branch who, unlike Randy Moss, can play any receiver position and that only furthers the Patriots ability to disguise what they’re doing. Branch also has the quickness and smarts to get open quickly when he’s needed to.

The scuttlebutt is that the Pats were ready to move Moss after the loss to the Jets. It makes sense. The Patriots are not afraid to evolve mid-season if they feel they need to make changes. Everyone loves to trash the Pats for every move they make but every move they make is always about winning, whether we on the outside see it immediately or not.

The fact is that the as much as the Jets have built a team to try and dethrone the Patriots, the Patriots have not by shy about tweaking their team to maintain their dominance over the AFC East.

And I’d argue that the Patriots need this game more than the Jets do. If the Jets lose it will still be a race. If the Patriots lose they’re in a much deeper hole than the Jets would be if they want any shot at the division or a bye.

So I guess the lesson as always, is don’t always buy what the Sportscenter talking heads are selling. Most of the time they’re just talking because they have to, not because they’ve really thought about the analysis they’re making. I just think it would be worth mentioning how the Patriots have made in-season efforts to adjust to the exact problems T Dilf was describing.

Patriots: Where Amazing Happens…

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This video came pretty close to giving me chills, but as someone who knows a little bit about editing and production it left me just a little short. Let’s change those fonts up guys, and maybe a little less broadcast footage and a little more NFL Films style slo mo shots. Otherwise, “almost giving chills” isn’t a bad way to start the day.