An Independent Patriots Blog
When Bill hits the field and the whistle blows to start the game Belichick is in a race. He’s not just in a moment, he’s in a race to figure how [the opponent] wants to play the game. Once he figures it out, then he makes his adjustments.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/when-bill-hits-the-field-and-the-whistle-blows-to-2/
Just a little somethin’ somethin’ to get you pumped for the playoffs…
Here’s a wrap up of Cold Hard Football Facts’ statistical rankings for the 2010 Patriots.
I have to be honest, I’m pretty happy to see Defensive Passer Rating at 13th, for a while there the Pats were well in the 20s for that. A great stretch run certainly improved a lot of stats, though even these complex stats are still for losers.
New England Patriots Final DVOA Chart (note – defensive DVOA flipped for charting purposes)
Football Outsiders came out with their final season rankings today and as you can see above we can now fully evaluate the 2010 regular season.
I think if you could have it any way you’d probably want your team’s chart to look like the Patriots does. Clearly they were getting better on offense and defense, and to some extent special teams as they finished the season.
Some other Patriots related items to pass along:
New England ends the year as the second-best team in DVOA history. They have the highest weighted DVOA we’ve ever measured, and the highest offensive DVOA we’ve ever measured. Their weighted DVOA seriously laps the field, over ten percentage points higher than any other team.
The Patriots’ record-setting offense does not set a record for passing DVOA. That record still belongs to the 2007 Patriots. But this team was much better on the ground, finishing with the seventh-highest rushing DVOA ever. Yet they weren’t the most efficient running team this season. The Philadelphia Eagles end up with the third-highest rushing DVOA ever. Obviously, a lot of that is Michael Vick, but LeSean McCoy was also excellent this season, 18.0% DVOA (fourth among qualifying backs).
Tom Brady ends the year with the fifth-highest passing DYAR in NFL history (2,141 DYAR) and the fourth-highest DVOA for a quarterback with more than 100 passes (53.4%). The top six DYAR seasons all belong to Brady (2007, 2009, and 2010) and Peyton Manning (2004, 2006, and 2009). Boomer Esiason’s ridiculous 1997 actually sneaks into the Brady-Manning stratosphere for top DVOA seasons. Manning finishes second this year with 1,674 DYAR, a total that was topped by six different quarterbacks a year ago.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/new-england-patriots-final-dvoa-chart-note/
New England Patriots Final DVOA Chart (note – defensive DVOA flipped for charting purposes)
Football Outsiders came out with their final season rankings today and as you can see above we can now fully evaluate the 2010 regular season.
I think if you could have it any way you’d probably want your team’s chart to look like the Patriots does. Clearly they were getting better on offense and defense, and to some extent special teams as they finished the season.
Some other Patriots related items to pass along:
New England ends the year as the second-best team in DVOA history. They have the highest weighted DVOA we’ve ever measured, and the highest offensive DVOA we’ve ever measured. Their weighted DVOA seriously laps the field, over ten percentage points higher than any other team.
The Patriots’ record-setting offense does not set a record for passing DVOA. That record still belongs to the 2007 Patriots. But this team was much better on the ground, finishing with the seventh-highest rushing DVOA ever. Yet they weren’t the most efficient running team this season. The Philadelphia Eagles end up with the third-highest rushing DVOA ever. Obviously, a lot of that is Michael Vick, but LeSean McCoy was also excellent this season, 18.0% DVOA (fourth among qualifying backs).
Tom Brady ends the year with the fifth-highest passing DYAR in NFL history (2,141 DYAR) and the fourth-highest DVOA for a quarterback with more than 100 passes (53.4%). The top six DYAR seasons all belong to Brady (2007, 2009, and 2010) and Peyton Manning (2004, 2006, and 2009). Boomer Esiason’s ridiculous 1997 actually sneaks into the Brady-Manning stratosphere for top DVOA seasons. Manning finishes second this year with 1,674 DYAR, a total that was topped by six different quarterbacks a year ago.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/new-england-patriots-final-dvoa-chart-note-2/
Now that the pairings are finally set we can say for sure the Pats will play the winner of the Ravens at Chiefs game unless the Jets upset the Colts.
I’m going to stick with what I’ve believed the last two weeks and that is that the Patriots will host the Ravens on Sunday January 16th. Obviously once the matchup is set in stone we’ll analyze the bejeezus out of it.
For now let’s talk about the upcoming two games and what our Patriots-skewed perspective is.
Jets @ Indy
The good thing is that we’ll know Sunday morning if the Pats are playing the Jets or if it will indeed be the winner of the Ravens – Chiefs games. If the games were flipped there would still some doubt.
The Jets are of course already talking a lot, about how they owe the Colts for last year, and how the Colts are beatable this year, and how the Jets have all these new pieces for the Colts to deal with.
I still like the Colts. For the Jets to go to Super Bowl they’re going to have to beat Indy, the Pats and then the last remaining team out of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City, and they’d have to do it entirely on the road. No way. No how.
Nothing the Jets have done this season points to them being able to go on an unstoppable three game tear against three elite teams. I think it ends for the Jets in round one. Peyton Manning will pick the middle part of their defense apart, and the Colts defense will take advantage of the suspect Jets offensive line.
Ravens @ Chiefs
This is an interesting match up, and I’m happy to see the Ravens have to play a team they’re not too familiar with in a tough road environment. It will really come down to whether or not Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles are able to run the ball on the Ravens. If they can, the rest of the KC offense will be opened up. If they can’t the game will be put entirely on Matt Cassel.
I just think the Ravens are a little more talented and a little more experienced and should be able to squeak it out.
As you’re probably aware I’ve been harping on third down being the key for success this season. That’s because the Patriots defense has demonstrated that they’re good tacklers and don’t give up a lot of big plays. Most of the time they’re winning on first and second down, so it’s just a matter of winning third down, getting off the field and letting the offense do what it does best.
While the Patriots will finish as last in the NFL by allowing a first down on 47.1% on the third downs they’ve faced, things have been remarkably better in the last five games of the season:
So for the last five games, nearly a third of the season the Pats have been performing at a 38.7% clip on 3rd down. This would rank in the top half of the NFL.
These numbers having me believe that coupled with all the turnovers they get this is absolutely a defense that is capable of winning a Super Bowl.