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Finding Patriots Free Agency Fits

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Football fans love flashy objects and at no time is that more true that during Free Agency. Despite a decade-and-a-half sample size, many Patriots fans can’t help but imagine all the big name free agents possibly landing in New England. Every year the story is the same — the rest of the AFC East signs all the big names while the Pats sign from the bargain bin and… win the division.

The Super Bowl is never won in March, despite the splashy signings for huge money.

Over the years it’s become apparent the kind of free agents the Patriots target. Players who were underutilized or injured and never quite lived up to expectations. Especially those “just looking to win” and willing to take veteran minimum deals. Rarely do the Patriots go out and secure an unquestioned starter in free agency for significant money.

With that in mind here are the areas where I could see the Pats making some moves externally in free agency and some players who could fit the bill.

  1. Running Back: While Matt Forte would be the flashy name that gets everyone excited, the more I consider him, the more unlikely it feels that he would take the kind of low-ball offer the Pats would need to give him. That’s why Tuesday’s release of Joique Bell makes me think he’s more in line for what the Pats do, reminiscent of the Sammy Morris signing. Morris joined the team at age 30 in 2007 and gave the Pats three solid years in a number of roles, putting up 12 touchdowns. Bell is a threat both with his hard running and receiving, but go lost in the shuffle in Detroit, having a down year in 2015. He’s just the kind of buy low, high return back that could step in and compete for the early-down role against Tyler Gaffney and a rookie draft pick.
  2. Wide Receiver: I think Brandon LaFell returns but Danny Amendola will likely have to restructure his deal again. I’d like to add some more size and some more versatility to this group, and I think former Rutgers/Bengals receiver Mohamad Sanu makes a lot of sense. Sanu is one of those receivers who can do a lot of different things and would immediately bring an element of size to the group. Again, a guy who got lost in the shuffle a bit, but checks a lot of boxes the Pats like and should be affordable. Could see a world where Sanu is swapped into the slot for Amendola, who could also be let go.
  3. Middle Linebacker: Even before Jerod Mayo‘s retirement the Pats had a need at linebacker and while one should be added via the draft, they’ll shore up depth in free agency. Dane Fletcher, who never made it off PUP after an ACL tear, was basically on a one-year injury rehab contract last year. He could make sense for depth, I think he’s better than Jonathan Freeny. Externally the Pats kicked the tires on Rolando McClain last season but he ended up in Dallas and had a bad season. He’s the kind of reclamation project the Pats might like to try, especially pairing him with old Alabama teammate Dont’a Hightower. At 6’4″, he’d make for an imposing trio with Hightower and Jamie Collins. The Jets’ Demario Davis could be another interesting option.
  4. Cornerback: I think the best option here would be to bring back Tarrell Brown, who was looking like a starter before a lingering foot problem put him on the shelf for the year. Now he has a year in Foxboro and if his foot is fully healed he could be a good veteran presence to keep in the cornerback room. There’s plenty of young talent in this group between Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Justin Coleman, Leonard Johnson and Darryl Roberts. A vet like Brown would be the perfect way to round things out.
  5. Offensive Tackle: This is a position I really have no idea on. Do they just bring back LaAdrian Waddle for some depth? The Pats always sign off-the-radar offensive linemen. There are certainly plenty of available, I just don’t think it will be a splashy signing of any kind. No, offensive tackle is my top draft target right now depending on how high the Pats can get their first pick of the draft and how much tackle value is there. Again, athleticism is the key trait to add.
  6. Interior defensive tackle: Picking up Alan Branch’s option seems like a good value move and I think the Pats should at least take a swing at retaining Akiem Hicks as unlikely as it seems that he’ll be in their price range. If one or both of those two walks, they’ll need to look for another big body for the interior rotation. The Chargers’ Kendall Reyes was a good Patriots fit coming out of UConn but has underperformed. The return of Dominique Easley can cushion the blow of losing Hicks, but not Branch.

2015 Patriots Highlight Video For Your Hump Day

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I gotta be honest, I didn’t love this season. Of course there were plenty of highlight moments, mostly by Gronk and Dion Lewis, and seeing this young homegrown defense really take a significant step forward was exciting to see but were there really any epic, unforgettable games outside of finally getting a win over the Giants? Beating the Colts was nice and a better game than many expected, and torching Rex in Buffalo Week 2 was fun. But once the injuries started in Dallas Week 5 each week became about hanging on long enough to get healthy.

Thinking back I’m not sure I remember much of anything about Jags, Titans, Redskins or Texans games. Still, the 2015 Pats did what they always do, fight to the end with everything they had. It was just one of those seasons where it didn’t quite hit epic mode very often.

Jerod Mayo Announces Retirement

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Mayo's speed and leadership set him apart.

Jerod Mayo takes the field as a rookie.

From this Instagram post it looks like Jerod Mayo is retiring, a move not entirely unexpected. At the very least the Patriots weren’t picking up his option and now this now clears almost $7 million dollars from the Pats’ cap number.

First, a quick look back at Mayo’s career. He was taken 10th overall in the 2008 draft and immediately stepped into a starter’s role in an aging defense that was about to be completely turned over. Mayo was the constant during that turnover and missed just five games in his first five years.

There wasn’t a lot of talent around Mayo from 2008-2011 and with his excellent speed he wracked up 341 tackles in those four years. By all accounts he was a consummate Patriot, and despite the injuries of the last few years, was still always around the team, being a leader and helping in any way he could.

Still, I think there was always something missing with Mayo and that was his big play ability. He just never got over the hump to be a player who made critical plays in critical moments.  For his career in the regular season he had just three interceptions, eight forced fumbles and 11 sacks. In eight career playoff games he had just one forced fumble. No interceptions. No sacks.

I remember a lengthy pre-game chat between me and Erik Frenz discussing how Mayo was a “tackling machine” but he just wasn’t the impact player you really wanted him to be.

Of course you can’t always judge a player by their stats, but there’s some truth in there. Still, Mayo did a ton for the Patriots and I shudder to think to what depths the defense of 2008-2011 would’ve sunk to without Jerod Mayo making the calls and cleaning up the trash.

Best wishes to Mayo and his family as he turns to the next chapter, whatever that may be.

For the Patriots, they get some much-needed cap relief and can start to formulate a plan on who’s getting paid next. Mayo’s departure certainly reinforces the need for a middle linebacker, but it will be interesting to see what kind of linebacker the Pats’ target. Collins and Hightower are seemingly best used on the outside, along the line of scrimmage in the regular package, with Collins sliding off the line in sub-packages.

The Pats need a dedicated run-stopper in the middle, but also someone with the kind of range to drop into the flat. This doesn’t have to be a three-down linebacker, but he does need to be better than Jonathan Freeny was in 2015.

ESPN/Barnwell: Fives moves the Bills, Dolphins, Jets and Patriots should make this offseason – NFL

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Here’s the quick rundown of what Bill Barnwell thinks the Patriots should do:

1. Release Jerod Mayo.

2. Release Marcus Cannon and Brandon LaFell.

3. Re-sign Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones

4. Sign a veteran offensive linemen.

5. Pass up Matt Forte and add a big back to replace LeGarrette Blount.

Source: Fives moves the Bills, Dolphins, Jets and Patriots should make this offseason – NFL

Okay, here are my thoughts on each of these little nuggets.

  1. Releasing Mayo is a no brainer because yes it will free up a much-needed $7 million in cap space. I wouldn’t rule out Mayo coming back on a veteran minimum either, Belichick loves him that much. He started to show some pop toward the end of the season and yes, he’s ended up on IR three years in a row but I don’t think it’s a lock that he’s done. That will however scare other teams away and maybe keep the door open to a return in New England. Or, if he is done, there’s some speculation he could end up on the coaching staff in New England. That might be a stretch.
  2. I’m not down with releasing Cannon or LaFell. First, with Cannon I wrote a bunch about the offensive line earlier today. He is what he is, a backup swing tackle. Yes, they’re probably overpaying him a bit, but as we saw this year, it’s okay to overpay a guy a bit when he ends up being a starter at two positions in-season for you. But let’s not forget he’s been generally solid and with the return of his original mentor Dante Scarnecchia I don’t see why you don’t give him another year, hopefully in the role he’s best at. As for LaFell, he had a bad year, but let’s remember he had a foot injury that kept him on PUP and he never truly looked comfortable again. Despite the drops the guy is still a blocking demon who plays the position the way the Patriots want. He’s entering a contract year and he knows what is on the line. I like that combination, especially if he has a healthy offseason.
  3. Definitely re-sign Collins and Hightower, with Hightower being my top priority by a nose. As for Chandler, let him play it out this final season. He’s been so up and down and usually saves his most anonymous performances for the biggest stages. The depth at DE is great, with Jabaal Sheard really being a better fit for the Pats style than Jones at this point. Behind him will be second year players Trey Flowers and Geneo Grissom, not to mention preseason standout Rufus Johnson. Pats could even dangle Jones as trade bait, though his weird drug situation during the week before the first playoff game certainly didn’t help his stock. Ultimately I think Jones still has yet to prove he’s an every down force. Give him a chance to prove it this year, and either way he probably walks in 2017.
  4. Don’t really see the Pats springing for an offensive linemen as even Barnwell points out his example is probably too expensive. The OL is all about the draft with the Patriots. Develop the guys they have, add some rookies, maybe a cheap vet FA that no one knows and they’ll be fine.
  5. I agree the Pats need a power resurgence, but I think if there’s one place to throw a bit of money in FA it’s on a running back like Forte. Of course it would have to be at the Pats price but I don’t rule out Forte giving them a huge bargain. But someone like Tim Hightower is just the kind of Pats thing to do. Either way, there will be draft picks spent on at least one running back, preferably one with size and one-cut ability.

Patriots Will Let Scarnecchia Develop the Offensive Line, Not Buy Him a New One

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One thing is for certain, when a season doesn’t end with a Super Bowl victory the specifics of the playoff loss are dissected and whatever went wrong in that one particular game becomes the offseason’s object of focus. This year it’s obviously the offensive line, but don’t expect the Patriots to suddenly blow everything up because Von Miller and his Broncos pals blew up our pass protection.

Brian Waters might be the only significant free agent offensive linemen Bill Belichick has ever added. Even then Waters wasn’t signed until September, just days before the start of the season. Otherwise, the Patriots offensive line has always been a combination of draft picks and street free agents who were developed over time. Some of their best success stories were guys like Stephen Neal, Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell who were molded from scratch.

Now, with the return of Dante Scarnecchia, it’s even less likely for the Pats to depart from their methodology for building an offensive line. Scarnecchia’s fondness for Marcus Cannon also makes it less likely the Pats cut ties with him. Cannon is everyone’s favorite scapegoat, but even he worked through injuries this year and really, how many right tackles out there could’ve handled Von Miller during this playoff run?

Over the 16 seasons of the Bill Belichick Patriots there have been plenty of angst about the offensive line at times, but that’s just football. Nothing breaks down an offense faster than when the line is out of sync. More often than not the Pats always have pulled it together. The rotation of the last couple season has made it harder and perhaps with the departure of Dave DeGuglielmo, we’ll no longer see that kind of player management.

But if you forget how the season ended, you can see that the Pats now have a very promising group of young interior linemen, an area they were completely deficient in just a couple seasons ago. Shaq Mason and Tre’ Jackson showed excellent development over their rookie seasons and both could be full time starters in 2016. Meanwhile the Pats have two promising young centers in Bryan Stork and David Andrews. They’ll likely go head-to-head for the starting spot in training camp in an interesting roster battle.

Outside at tackle is where the Pats could bring in some help, but I can’t see them springing for an expensive free agent like Mitchell Schwartz, it’s just never been their style, especially when they’re already paying Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon over $21 million combined.

Sebastian Vollmer is getting close to the end, but back at right tackle, where his fading mobility is easier to mask, he should have another very good season in him. With Scarnecchia back and a return to full health, Cannon should be just fine in his third tackle role. Let’s not forget Cannon was extremely solid filling in full time at right tackle for Vollmer. He has it in him and he has experience. You can’t just cut those kind of guys, plug in a more expensive free agent and count on better results.

Tackle should be a draft priority and one I’d consider with the highest picks the Pats have. The key missing ingredient to the Solder-Vollmer-Cannon-Fleming group is athleticism. Solder certainly has it, but the others don’t, and let’s face it, the differences between the left and right side have been diminishing for years. An athletic swing tackle who can play either side with good feet and mobility to get into space would only help what the Patriots do best. Drafting a tackle now, as Vollmer and Cannon enter the final years of their deals is also very much in line with how the Patriots build their team with an eye to the future.

Despite the season-ender, the Pats are in relatively good shape along the offensive line. The key is Solder’s return and reinforcing the tackle spot with an eye to the future. But as far as the 2016 season goes, don’t expect any monumental shifts, especially via free agency.

All Aboard the Matt Forte-to-the-Patriots Train?

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Each year free agency for the Patriots is usually pretty anticlimactic. There are certainly exceptions, 2oo7’s acquisition of Adalius Thomas (which was way exciting at the time) and 2014’s signing of Darrelle Revis both stand out as times the Pats did the unexpected and added a big name player. Usually the Patriots’ foray’s into free agency are about building depth, signing underperforming/injured veterans for minimum contracts and seeing if they can revive their careers in New England.

Still, that doesn’t stop the free agency frenzy every offseason in Patriots nation, where every big name free agent is imagine in the Flying Elvis. The thing about the Pats is that you can never say never, so that always keeps the door open for this kind of speculation.

This year’s first object of affection is former Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte, who was informed by the team that he would not be back next year. There’s no question, running back is a position for the Patriots to attack this offseason, but is Forte the kind of veteran free agent the Pats could jump on?

Let’s take a closer look.

2004’s addition via trade of Corey Dillon is the ideal outcome, and even though Dillon really only gave the Pats one great season, it was enough to bring home the Super Bowl championship. Forte is coming off 218 carries for 898 yards (4.1 YPC) and four touchdowns, and 44 catches for 389 yards and four receiving touchdowns. 2015 wasn’t Forte’s best season, but it wasn’t too far off from his usual performance. At 31 he should still have some gas in the tank.

The advantage the Patriots have is their belief in backfield-by-committee. While Forte has the ability to run and catch, he wouldn’t have to be an every-down back. Dion Lewis (returning from an ACL tear) and James White both can play in the passing situations. No, Forte’s best use is on first down, where his size and speed would be a welcome addition running between the tackles. Forte’s catching ability also will keep the defense honest in respecting the pass, unlike LeGarrette Blount in 2015, who was thrust into the early-down back role and often had trouble getting his engine going before being lost for the season with a hip injury.

First though, the Patriots must open some cap space, something that is easy to do with the simple decline of Jerod Mayo’s option. There are plenty of other ways the Patriots can and will open cap space before free agency opens, and with no major internal free agents to worry about, they have flexibility.

Even if the Pats sign Matt Forte, it’s a short term fix and one that must be insured against via the draft. They cannot afford to have their power running game be completely destroyed by injuries again in 2016. Tom Brady’s health depends on it.

The real question is how cheaply the Pats can get him. That’s really what it comes down to. Forte says he wants to play for a contender, but with plenty of extensions looming for the Patriots this offseason, they’ll have a price and will stick to it. If that price is amenable to Forte, chances are good he’ll be a Patriot, it just makes too much sense.