PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

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I fully expect the Patriots to be extremely aggressive this offseason. The pain of that loss will serve as a reminder on what they need to do to ensure it never happens again. The plan for the Patriots is fairly simple as they need to add at least two blue chip players in their front seven and find someone, anyone, who can put pressure on the quarterback. The Patriots have coverage men, but they lack the ability to rush the passer and create negative plays.

With two picks in every round for the first four rounds, the Patriots will not have enough roster spots available to ensure those players will make the team. As a result, I can see them being aggressive in the draft to ensure they come away with the specific players they need. They have depth, they have youth, but they need an impact defensive player who can be impactful right away – not down the road.

Michael Lombardi

https://www.patspropaganda.com/i-fully-expect-the-patriots-to-be-extremely/

Ranking the last five seasons in unhappy Patriots endings

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I know a lot of people aren’t going to want to hear a Patriots fan talk about his misery over the last five years, especially when we’ve seen more wins than anyone else. The difference though, is that when you win a lot your expectations get pretty high, making the disappointment even harder to handle.

The higher your expectations get raised the harder they can come crashing down.

So with that in mind let’s rank the crappy endings of the last five years starting with the most tolerable.

5. 2008 (missed playoffs): The real misery came in the first quarter of the first game when TFB went down for the season, but after that, once we slowly started to at least appreciate the Matt Cassel year you couldn’t help but have some kind of expectations. Especially when the Pats were in the hunt for the division title right down to the last weekend. Ultimately not making the playoffs was okay, because the 2008 Pats could not beat an elite team, and were really saved by a cake walk schedule.

4. 2009 (Loss Ravens Wild Card): I think we can all agree that the magic was missing in 2009. 2010 made this even more apparent. Maybe had Welker not gone down in week 17 it would’ve been a little more disappointing, but when we faced reality we knew that this team wasn’t going very far in the playoffs. They were owned from the opening drive, so it was apparent the season was ending then and there pretty quickly. In a season filled with tough losses this one was just the icing on the cake.

3. 2010 (Loss Jets Divisional): If you told me in the summer of 2010 that the Pats season would end in the divisional round I probably would’ve thought that sounded about right. Especially when you factored in the injuries to Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden. The fact that it came at the hands of the Jets is what made it hard to handle. But when you consider what this young team did in 2010 there’s far more reason to be optimistic about the future, whereas in the past whenever the season ended you had no idea how many veterans would still be around. Now this team has a solid young base on defense, some versatile threats on offense, and we’ll still have another few years of elite play from Brady. It is no stretch of the imagination that the Patriots will be picked as Super Bowl 46 favorites by many, especially after doing whatever they want on draft weekend.

2. 2006 (Loss Colts AFCCG): Put it this way, the Pats were one half away from playing the shitty Bears in the Super Bowl, which would’ve almost assuredly meant their fourth Super Bowl in six years. But the Colts rammed it down their throat for the entire second half. To come that close with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney as the WRs speaks to how good this team was. It also shows what a veteran defense means in the playoffs. 

1. 2007 (Loss Giants Super Bowl 42): Obviously. I could make an argument that this was the most disappointing end to a season for any sports team of the last decade. They were under three minutes away from being the undisputed greatest NFL team of all time. Funny how one miracle catch and one Plaxico Burress touchdown later, and the 2007 Pats are a punchline. I still appreciate what that team did, and while 18-1 may be a joke to a lot of NFL fans, I take pride that they had the balls to go undefeated and how close they came. To only laugh at 18-1 is to totally discount what it took to go 18-0, and I will never forget that.

On the Patriots defensive front seven and specialization

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While I’ve been blogging about the Pats since the 2007 season this was the first time I really took the time to re-watch the games to try and crack the defensive code of what exactly the Patriots do on defense.

You can look over at the column on the right to see where I recorded snap percentages, my interpretations of defensive game plans, and a rough note of what formations were used. Look, I don’t claim that any of it is one hundred percent airtight accurate, but when you look at the entire body of work you start to understand a lot of things that most Patriots fans don’t see when they just watch the game once.

When you lack a lot of three down players in your front seven you have to become a team of specialization. What made previous Patriots teams so good was that players like Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, and Richard Seymour were so versatile they could play every down, pass or run. The fact that they were big, physical players certainly helped.

Now the Patriots lack players like that, outside of Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork and maybe Gerard Warren who was versatile more out of necessity due to injuries than being  versatile. While Jermaine Cunningham could project as a three down OLB down the road, there doesn’t appear to be much more versatility in the defensive front seven. You can go right down the line and categorize every other player as a run or pass player.

Of course there will always be specialists. Ted Johnson was the Brandon Spikes of old. Roman Phifer was the Gary Guyton of old. But really where you’d love to have the versatility is with your defensive ends and outside linebackers, who can hopefully be interchangeable to some extent.

Much is made that the Pats play a 3-4 defense and that influences what players they’ll consider when drafting. Well there’s a lot more to it than that.

  • This overall Patriots system, which is much more than just a 3-4 defense, requires intelligent players who understand how to read and react. 
  • Players who can only get upfield are not ideal fits.
  • Lineman need to be able to hold their ground against multiple blockers. That is priority one.
  • OLBs must must must be able to drop into coverage.

So while everyone’s talking about needing an outside linebacker or defensive end, take into consideration that versatility is really the key ingredient especially when you’re talking about first or second round picks.

Jermaine Cunningham didn’t exactly light the world on fire in 2010, but he was solid in both the run game and pass game, playing what is arguably the hardest position to play in the Patriots defense as a rookie. Look for a big jump from him in 2011.

Similar to the tight ends on the other side of the ball, the OLBs must be physical enough to hold their ground and defeat tackles, while also having the agility to jam and cover tight ends. So it’s not really a secret why the Pats haven’t been able to find the next Vrabel or McGinest yet. Those players don’t grow on trees.

The Pats were only in their 3-4 defense for less than half the snaps of 2010 as again, it’s really only used to stop the run. So it’s important to consider their nickel and dime defenses when considering what personnel to add.

The problem with the sub defenses arose again from their lack of versatility in the defensive front seven. Because their sub package lineman like Mike Wright, Myron Pryor, and later Landon Cohen were much more suited for pass rush the Pats were often victimized by sub runs. Of course the injuries to Wright and Pryor magnified the problem. And a player like Ty Warren would’ve been a big help in those regards. Let’s remember Vince Wilfork wasn’t a three down lineman until this year.

The other problem with so much specialization is that it hurts how much disguise you can do. If TBC was in the game, teams knew the Pats were less prepared to stop the run. If Rob Ninkovich was in they knew the Pats were thinking run.

One area of specialization that I would like to touch on is that of the DPR (designated pass rusher). When most people say the Pats need to address OLB in the draft what they’re really talking about is a DPR. They want someone who’s sole job is to get after the quarterback. 

This year, with so many draft picks I think BB should really consider spending a high pick on someone who might not have the coverage skills yet to play OLB, but is relentless getting after the quarterback. 

When you look at the DPRs from 2010 you had Cunningham, Shawn Crable, then finally Eric Moore. Tully Banta-Cain could fall into this category as well, though the others stayed only in that role when they had it (cunningham obviously moved on the playing some 3-4 OLB). Hand-down as a left defensive end in nickel and dime packages. We all know the Patriots struggles with getting after the quarterback, I think the time is now to address this spot once and for all.

So as you begin to read mock drafts and research the draft take all this into consideration. Think about everything that a potential player will do for the Patriots. Will he just be a DPR, or is he a four down player like Devin McCourty?

This draft is an important one. As I’ve said since last year the 2011 draft will be a huge part of setting up another dynastic run.

New England Patriots 2011 Opponents

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Welp in keeping with the theme of turning the page to next season, here’s the list of who the Pats are going to playing with some observations.

Chiefs – Cassel, Vrabel and crew return to Foxboro.
Chargers – SD comes to NE for the first time since the Pats last playoff win. Ugh.
Cowboys – Pats fans get to see a 3 down OLB up close (Demarcus Ware)
Giants –  Eli should have a lot of fun playing in NE.
Bills – Pats win.
Dolphins – Phins taking half step back, hope this game is in Dec/Jan. 
Jets – this game won’t be hyped or anything.
Colts – Peyton Manning should have his weapons back.

Broncos – games in Denver have not been kind to the Pats in recent years.
Raiders – this could be my road trip game of the year.
Eagles – exciting match-up against a Vick and company.
Redskins – Pats win.
Bills – Pats win.
Dolphins – always a battle in South Florida. 
Jets  – Pats haven’t won there in 2 seasons.
Steelers – another battle against two top AFC teams.

Cutting a Welker report off at the knees

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If you haven’t heard it yet I’m sure it will pop up somewhere so this is a preemptive attempt to provide some perspective on the twitter personality known as “Incarcerated Bob” and this tweet that he made this morning:

**BREAKING NEWS** Patriots are looking into shopping WR Wes Welker this off-season : Pats believe they can get a 2nd RD pick or early 3rd

I can’t say that I definitively know that this is untrue, but I do know that Bob reports a lot of stuff that never happens. His tweets surrounding Jim Harbaugh were pretty comical, he had Harbaugh as a lock to multiple places multiple times.

It’s also worth mentioning that Bob is a Jets fan, so we can’t rule out him just trying to drive a stake between the Pats and Welker after his first series benching.

Finally, and most logically, the season ended three days ago. Are we to assume that the Patriots, namely BB, already sat down, decided that they’d be better off getting either a 3rd second or third round pick than they’d be with WW coming into year two after an ACL injury (usually the year they get back to 100%)? Not only did they decide all this but they told people who then somehow leaked word back to Incarcerated Bob? Highly doubtful.

Perhaps Bob or his sources (likely Jets related) saw a small rift between BB and WW and wanted to try to up the stakes. The fact is that players have had rifts with BB before, but once it’s over with it’s in the past. So I find it unlikely that there would be residual tension based on Welker getting benched for one series.

Welker is signed through 2011, so there could be some contract discussions with him about an extension this offseason. But right now his cap number is manageable so there’s no reason to think it would be a salary related move.

So all in all, if/when news of this “report” catches on take it with a grain of salt and consider the source.  

ProFootball Focus: Patriots Pass Protection Not Problem

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Here’s a little nugget from Pro Football Focus that I found interesting:

Frankly this appears to be getting to the point of obsession for some Pats fans. Who comes up with this stuff? “no pressure should get through on a 3 man rush”. Why? One person is always single blocked and for any line-man to hold a 1 on 1 block for more than 4 seconds is good.

Let’s look at the raw numbers: Brady was pressured on only 18% of his drop backs (9 of 50)Of the 512 games played by QBS this year how many times do you think a QB dropping back 40 or more times was under less pressure? 11; that’s right just eleven times! So this was in the bottom 3% of pressure anyone had all year.

Of the 9 plays in which he did get pressure only one in my book did come on a 3 man rush; that was the second and here the thing which caused Brady to step into Ellis (who was reasonably well blocked) was Light 1 on 1 with Taylor off the edge.For the remainder every pressure came from 4 or 5 man rushes against a single player block and even some of those (in hindsight) were harsh. The only really sub-optimal pieces of Protection were Crumpler’s block on Pace (1 on 1) which allowed the sack, the first sack where Ellis badly beat Connolly outside( 1 on 1) and a later pressure by Ellis (through Connolly 1 on 1) which led to a sack.In my view, all of the o-line, other than Connolly, did a great job in pass protection and to blame them really is clutching at straws the purpose of which I couldn’t even guess at.

Playbook breaks down what Jets did on D vs. Patriots

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Playbook breaks down what Jets did on D vs. Patriots

Playbook is the only show that I’ll be able to watch on TV for the next few weeks and segments like these are the reason why. There’s no rhetoric, it’s just game film and insight into what was going on inside the chess match up.

As you can see the Jets had a great game plan and executed it flawlessly. I wish that I had the football knowledge to know what the Pats could’ve done differently. I think it probably has a lot to do with just not being ready to play, Deion and Wes both have the quickness to get off jams and get open, but not on Sunday.