PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS:  | 2015 Adjusted Games Lost – Patriots 29th in NFL

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New England and Washington were the only teams ranked 20th or worse in AGL to make the playoffs.

Source: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 Adjusted Games Lost

Football Outsiders always does a good job at quantifying just how impactful injuries are to teams by specifically looking each player who was lost and what their true impact was.

Not surprisingly the Pats come in at 29th overall with only Ravens, Redskins and Giants being hit harder by injuries in 2015. The Pats were 12th overall in 2014.

Nate Solder has to be the most impactful injury of the year because of the trickle-down effect it had on the rest of the line. They just didn’t have another tackle athletic enough to fill in for him and were left with the up-and-down performances of Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming and even a tackle cameo by Bryan Stork.

Dion Lewis was the biggest buzzkill injury of the year after coming out of nowhere to look like Barry Sanders in the first seven games of the season. It’s hard to fathom just what the Patriots would’ve looked like at the end of the season if Lewis was still in the mix even with the problems at tackle. Of course then losing LeGarrette Blount on top of Lewis only decimated the running back position even more and essentially made the Pats a pass-only team in the playoffs–never a good combination for a Super Bowl run.

Losing Julian Edelman for the last seven games of the regular season was certainly a big blow as well. He returned and was effective in the playoffs but would’ve still been a lot more dangerous without the plate in his foot.

Still, despite all these injuries the Pats still came within a missed field goal/failed two point conversion of taking the Super Bowl champs to overtime on their homefield. That’s a testament to just how tough Bill Belichick’s teams always seem to be.

Report: Tom Brady signs two-year contract extension with Patriots

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Tom Brady has said he wants to play into his 40s and now with a new two-year contract extension with the New England Patriots, he has a deal in place that will take him to 42. The deal was first reported by Adam Schefter with this tweet:

The deal would last through the 2019 season, which would take Brady to a clean 20 years with the Patriots. But more importantly, Brady’s extension should lower his projected 2016 cap hit of $15 million.  Last week Jeff Howe reported the Pats hadn’t had any conversations with any of their pending free agents or extension candidates but now it seems like Brady was the priority and who can complain about that?

tom brady snow art

 

This changes the dynamic that was setting up to make 2017 a big question mark when both Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo‘s contracts were due to be up. You wondered then if that would open the door for Garoppolo to take over for Brady, but now it appears Brady isn’t going anywhere and that the Patriots feel comfortable enough with his level of play that they think he’s got at least two more elite seasons left and more likely three.

As for the fourth and final year of the deal, who knows where Brady or the Patriots will be at. Not many high end players see the final year of their deals with the Patriots, but Brady is obviously in a class by himself.

As for Garoppolo, Shefter said on WEEI that he didn’t think the Pats would trade their 2014 second-round pick. Though we haven’t seen much if any decline from Brady, it is comforting to have a knowledgeable and promising backup behind a quarterback pushing 40. Still, I think if the price was right, the Pats would have to consider moving Garoppolo, if not this season, then next, entering the final year of his deal. Or they could just hang on to him, hope he signs a significant free agent deal after 2017 and the Pats will get a compensatory pick for him.

However it plays out, this is great news that Brady’s got four more years to get that decisive fifth Super Bowl.

Combine: Gil Brandt ‘This is a draft that’s a Patriot draft’ | Patriots.com

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“There’s not really many first rounders,” Brandt told Patriots.com Friday during the league’s annual Scouting Combine. “There’s a lot of guys that are in the category of 20 to 50. You don’t have 28 (true) first rounders, so the (teams) who do their homework are going to do pretty well, because all these (players) look the same.”

Source: Combine: Gil Brandt ‘This is a draft that’s a Patriot draft’ | New England Patriots

How often are there actually 32 players worthy of a first-round selection? I’d make the case that 2012 might be one of the only years when the Pats traded up and nabbed both Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower. Is it any coincidence that those two players (along with 2013 second-rounder Jamie Collins) were the big keys to taking the porous defense of 2010 & 2011 and making them into one of the better front sevens in the NFL?

Pats don’t often get much credit for the fact that they’ve pretty much always been drafting in the 20’s for the last 15 years. The only exceptions were Jerod Mayo and Nate Solder. Otherwise they’ve maintained their dominance without getting to pick where most of the dominant players are usually selected.

You’d still love to have that first round pick back, but I think they have enough ammo to move up a bit in the second round. Big question will be when the runs on offensive and defensive tackles start.

 

Two Flukey Plays In Denver

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I came across the ultimate spoiled Pats fan comment in my internet travels the other day, someone complaining that the Pats have “only won one Super Bowl in the last 11 years” and I had to laugh. How incredibly easy it is to dismiss how impossible it is to consistently win in the NFL. No, the Patriots have made that part look easy and we’ve all just come to accept that ho-hum we locked up our 13th AFC East title in 15 years and came within a couple plays of going to our third Super Bowl in five years but that’s not good enough.

This also circles the bigger point of how whatever deficiency is exhibited in the season-ender is what everyone obsesses about for the entire offseason. Oh, and that of course must also include adding a deep threat and more pass rushers. This cycle happens every year on the outside, meanwhile inside the walls of Gillette Stadium, the Patriots just keep doing what they do despite the calls to blow certain things up each and every year.

Yes, the offensive line got toasted time and again in the AFC Championship, leaving many Pats fans to think that upgrading third-string swing tackle Marcus Cannon and usual-right-tackle-playing-left-tackle Sebastian Vollmer is the answer for 2016. The main theory is to cut them both, sign a high-priced free agent to pair with Nate Solder and then they’ll be all set. Yet, I still have trouble seeing how any right tackle in league was going to shut down Von Miller in Denver, especially when not even Carolina could do it at a neutral site.

Because despite all the flaws of the 2015 Patriots that everyone loves to point out, they should’ve been headed to overtime in AFC Championship. Were they a flawed team? Well after all the injuries, sure, but despite that the season still came down to what it always comes down to–making the last play.

If Malcolm Butler doesn’t make the SB49 game-winning interception what would everyone be complaining about last offseason? That not even Revis and Browner could save the Patriots’ terrible defense that blew three Super Bowls for Tom Brady. They had no pass rush. They needed a deep threat.

The unsexy truth is that if you want to point the finger at where the 2015 Pats hurt themselves the most you have nowhere to look but two flukey plays in Denver. You never know when one play is going to change the course of your season, but that’s what happened with Harper’s Muff and Gostkowski’s extra point miss.

The first very well cost the Pats the chance to host the AFC Championship. The second cost them an overtime shot at the Super Bowl. Yes, this is oversimplifying it, and I can’t kill an undrafted rookie (who shouldn’t have been trying to field the punt) messing up on the road in the snow, or a kicker who hadn’t missed an extra point since his rookie year, but it’s hard to argue the Pats season wouldn’t have ended on different terms had those two plays gone the other way. And yes, the irony of the Pats being the ones who suggested moving the extra point back drips thick.

Chris Harper Muffed Punt Patriots Broncos

But there’s no way to hem and haw about two random plays over the course of a season and that’s football. That’s why it’s so hard not only to win, but to make the key plays in the key moments. The Patriots Super Bowl runs all featured the Pats making those clutch plays. Even the years they came up short they made plenty of those plays as well — they just didn’t make the last ones.

So everyone can worry about the offensive line, about the lack of weapons, about the lack of a pass rusher like Von Miller, but none of it really matters. The truth is that no matter who comes or goes this offseason the Patriots will once again win a ton of games next season. Winning the Super Bowl takes your three best games with plenty of clutch plays and a little luck sprinkled in. The 2016 Pats will just come down to whether or not they make the last play, but they’ll be in thick of it and go down swinging. That’s all we can ask for, even if we “only” have one Super Bowl in the last 11 years..

 

Friday Pats Video: Tom Brady Sports Science

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eph2KkXI4sE

Won’t be long before the Pats news starts pouring in, but for now we’re stuck in the first void of the offseason, forced to watch college football players in skimpy outfits perform drills that will analyzed over and over. So here’s a little look at Brady and his mechanics as well as a look into his unstoppable QB sneak. Happy Friday!

Patriots not yet engaged in offseason contract talks | Boston Herald

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INDIANAPOLIS — For the time being, the Patriots are in a complete holding pattern with their major financial decisions as they forge through the early stages of the offseason.

Source: Patriots not yet engaged in offseason contract talks | Boston Herald

Lots of good nuggets in here from Jeff Howe, breaking down the specifics of who should get extended, who needs to be re-worked, and how the Patriots haven’t reached out to anyone about anything yet. Things can get done pretty quickly though and there is a ticking clock to an extent as the Pats could want to have some more cap space to maneuver with when free agency opens on March 9th. Still, we can all agree that Hightower is the priority and whether he gets done in the next two weeks or the next two months it’s hard to see them no extending him at the very least.

I did like reading that there was mutual interest in a return for Tarrell Brown. He makes sense as a veteran cornerback addition to add some depth behind all the youth. Another previously unknown nugget was that Vollmer had approached the team about an extension last season but the team balked at the time. I think Vollmer plays this year out, but Marcus Cannon, Danny Amendola and Scott Chandler are all ones to watch in the next couple weeks for contract re-workings, or perhaps being let go outright.

In case you missed it, here’s my Patriots plan for free agency and for those of you glued to the combine this week, here are some early thoughts on the draft.

Julian Edelman’s foot recovering well, hasn’t required offseason surgery | Boston Herald

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Edelman is fully on track to participate in the offseason workout program. Because foot surgeries are so tricky, Pats receivers such as Aaron Dobson (2014) and Brandon LaFell (2015) missed huge chunks of the offseason workout program following their spring procedures. It’s important that Edelman won’t have to worry about the fallout of a second surgery.

Source: Julian Edelman’s foot recovering well, hasn’t required offseason surgery | Boston Herald

Certainly good news, especially after Edelman was seen limping and headed to the x-ray room after the season-ender. I think the bigger question is just how the Pats view the receiving corps after this year. LaFell couldn’t get healthy until mid-season and struggled to find a rhythm to the point where he was basically replaced by Keshawn Martin in the AFC Championship. Amendola battled injuries of his own, but 2015 made it clear that he can’t take the pounding Edelman takes. Edelman was once again all-everything, and his absence in the lineup severely limited what the Patriots could do.

So now what? Amendola is almost certain to at least have his deal re-worked, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him dismissed entirely – although that would open up the punt return duties and no one wants to put Edelman back into that role full time. I’m of the belief LaFell deserves to play out the last year of his deal. He’ll have plenty of motivation, and he’s a better player than he showed in 2015. At the very least, the Pats are not going to find a tougher outside receiver before 2016.

I’d like to see the Pats shift their slot role from someone like Amendola to a bigger body like free agent Mohamed Sanu. Amendola has made plenty of clutch catches but I’m worried his best (and healthiest) days are behind him.

Then of course there’s old friend Aaron Dobson, entering his fourth season having played just 24 games. No one is counting on him for much of anything as even last season he still exhibited the same issues (aside from injuries) he’s had all along — inability to make the tough catch or make anything happen after the catch.

Receiver should be an area to target both in free agency and the draft. I am okay keeping LaFell and Edelman in their roles, and Martin could develop into a nice fourth option, but the slot is an area it might be time to evolve a bit.