We’re still more than two months away from the draft and already we’ve been getting a lot of questions and seeing a lot of speculation if this is the year the Patriots finally draft up for once.
We’re all familiar with the Patriots passion for trading down. It’s to the point now where you just hold your breath when they’re on the clock, and feel a slight sense of shock when they actually do take a player.
With six picks in the first three rounds, some very specific needs for impact playmakers that usually only come at the top of the draft, along with the potential for a rookie salary cap if the new CBA is done in time, it seems like the factors could be there for this to be the year the Pats move up in the first round.
But the question is who, and how far could the Pats jump based on their picks.
First let’s look at what ammo they have. In the first three rounds the Patriots have the following picks:
- 17
- 28
- 33
- 60
- 74
- 92
By combining the 17th overall pick with each of the others the Patriots could jump (according to the Draft value chart) to: 6th, 7th, 11th, 13th, or 15th. So really after the 5th pick is made they could possibly be in play to jump up at any point.
But is there a player that high that would warrant such a move? Here are three possible candidates in my eyes (with National Football Post’s commentary):
Cameron Jordan: Cal (6-4, 287)
Can hold the point both inside and out, but it’s his ability to rush the passer that makes him tops in this group.
Marcell Dareus: Alabama (6-3, 309)
A naturally powerful lineman with a good anchor and knows how to fend off blocks. Looks like a very solid starting 5-tecnique at the next level.
Von Miller: Texas A&M (6-3, 237)
Lacks great size, but is simply the most natural pass rusher in this year’s draft.
Now the appearance of Von Miller might surprise some people given the fact that on paper he’s just too small to play outside linebacker in the Patriots scheme. There will be another blog coming on this shortly.
Some have asked if a receiver like AJ Green might be the target of a trade-up but I think given that it’s not a truly pressing area of need, coupled with what happened last time they traded up for a WR (The Chad Jackson), this is probably a long shot.
What will make this most interesting is if the rookie cap is installed before the draft. This would of course depend on the CBA getting done which could be a long shot. But if the financial risk is removed from the top-10 picks, the value of having enough picks to trade up will sky rocket.
Ideally, if you’re only a couple players away like the Patriots are, having a top-10 pick is where you want to be. If you’re multiple players away you’re going to want multiple second and third round picks to build up the necessary depth for your team.
While the Patriots drafting philosophy and evaluation will always remain a great mystery to those of us on the outside, this is one year where we could see the trend of trading down and accumulating picks altered.
But if they don’t trade up I am pretty much willing to guarantee that someone will give them an offer for the 33rd pick late Thursday night that they will not be able to refuse.
