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Second-Guessing My Patriots Draft Predictions

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With the draft just a few days away and as I settle with my Top-50 board, mock draft and general feeling of where the Patriots will attack this draft, I find myself wondering where the Pats might zag on my zig.

The first four picks, back-to-back in both the second and third rounds, are vital, especially without a first round pick this year. My four positions that I think they’ll address are 1. Running Back 2. Defensive Line 3. Offensive Tackle and 4. Wide Receiver. That’s the order of likelihood I think they’ll draft those positions, not the order of need.

I think a defensive tackle will fall to them in the second round, but I am unsure if they’ll ignore penetrating three techniques as much as I predicted they will. I went with Austin Johnson, who seems to fit the role of Alan Branch and Terrence Knighton in the scheme. Both of those vets are free agents next year. But names like Sheldon Day, who is more like Dominique Easley than a monster in the middle.

Now, I’m second-guessing that I should’ve gone in that direction, toward the three-techniques, despite Mike Reiss’ report a couple weeks ago that the he heard the Pats were getting away from that style of defensive tackle after a brief experiment with them. I’m conflicted about that.

After all, I was Mr. Interior Rush Drum Banger circa 2010. Maybe Easley has me spooked. I don’t know. I do think they’re limited in how much they can play in this defense, and that Malcom Brown is versatile enough to play three downs. That will leave a Ninkovich-Brown-Sheard-Long best pass rush front, hopefully with Trey Flowers contributing early and emerging later as solid rotational player. Still not sure how Geneo Grissom fits in either. But there’s a ton of depth at defensive end and they can cover the role Easley was being used for, although it would make the front a bit lighter.

A lot of people disliked my offensive tackle pick, but I still think they should hit that position early with an athletic right tackle-of-the-future. The main positional conflict was with those wanting a wide receiver. As much as I tried to find one, I couldn’t find a wide receiver I really loved and felt checks all the boxes for the Pats, except for Sterling Shepard.

There certainly were guys with the right traits, but all had some sort of red flag, or just didn’t jump off the tape to me. I think wide receiver is still the position where fanalysts try to jam talent down our throats, when we’ve discussed time and again how hard it is for a wide receiver in this system. I like guys like Leontae Carroo and Braxton Miller, I just don’t feel great about them picking things up immediately.

Still, I’d love to see them take a chance on a wide receiver early, I just believe the talent and value in the late-second round is far better at offensive and defensive tackle, and those positions are far more vital to the long-term health of the franchise. Many want a big X-receiver type, but I’m more than fine with a “get open quick” type to help manage Edelman and Amendola’s wear and tear a bit.

Finally, I feel good about my view of the running back spot. I went with Arkansas’ Alex Collins, but I could see any of this group – Jonathan Williams, Kenneth Dixon and Devontae Booker — fitting in well with the need, which I see as an early down pounder. What would surprise me would be if the Pats targeted more of a receiving back.

There’s plenty of groupthink picks out there too by all us Pats pundits. Keenan Reynolds, Dan Vitale and Daniel Braverman are just a few that almost everyone has connected to the Pats at some point.

It’s a big week and Friday and Saturday should be a lot of fun. As always, I’ll be surprised if I’m not surprised at least a couple time by who the Pats take. You can bet your money at least one of the picks will be a player none of us have heard of or studied. That’s what makes it fun.

Despite their lack of a first round pick, the Patriots should be able to improve their team and fill a number of holes.

Tom Brady’s Deflategate Suspension Reinstated

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Tom Brady's Deflategate SuspensionThe US Second Court of Appeals reinstated Tom Brady’s Deflategate suspension today and this could be the end of the line for Brady and the NFLPA’s chances at appealing it, meaning the Pats could have Jimmy Garoppolo under center to start the 2016 season.

Essentially this court ruled 2-1 that Roger Goodell has the power to do whatever he wants because of the powers the NFLPA gave him in the latest CBA. We’re so far past this being actually about what actually happened with the balls during the 2014 AFC Championship Game, and here we sit, a year-and-a-half later with judges going back and forth ruling just what exactly the NFL can do to its players.

The NFLPA is weighing their options, which include trying to take this to the Supreme Court, but that could be a long shot. Now, it might just be in the best interest of everyone to drop it. This kills me to say it. The NFL played this whole investigation to win by any means necessary from the get-go. It was never about the truth and yes, it’s infuriating that they can stack the deck at every turn, leak lies to the media to support their version of the events and shape the narrative they want, then finally levy an unprecedented punishment at their whim.

Winnable Games in September

As I’ve said all along the real damage is the first round pick the Patriots won’t have this Thursday. Clearly that ship has sailed regardless, and with four picks in the first two rounds, I still think the Pats can overcome that loss of draft capital.

What are the real potential ramifications if Brady does sit the first four games: @ Cardinals, vs. Dolphins, vs. Texans, and vs. Bills?

Obviously Jimmy Garoppolo is now entering year three and has shown enough potential and should have a grasp of the offense that the Patriots should not be in a death spiral, especially getting the two most favorable divisional games on the schedule, though neither are certain victories. If those games were on the road in Miami and Buffalo, things might be a little different.

With Garoppolo, the Pats would have to scratch and claw in all four of those games, but I’d expect 2-2 at worst.

The entire Patriots starting defense except for Chandler Jones returns and they also still have the most talented offensive weapon on the field for those first four games – Rob Gronkowski, not to mention Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett, Danny Amendola and maybe even Dion Lewis working back into the mix. Even without Brady pulling the trigger, there’s a ton of talent all over this roster, and let’s remember that even with Brady, the Pats have seen their share of 2-2 starts.

The point is, the first four games of the season are not going to make or break the Pats’ 2016 campaign.

Part of me almost welcomes the challenge. Maybe that’s just due to being so sick of Deflategate and lawyers and judges that I just want to stop having to think and blog about them. But it’s also like when I used to play season after season of Madden on franchise mode and it got to the point where it was no longer challenging so I’d always trade my best players away to league rivals to at least make things interesting.

So Jimmy G is very likely going to get a shot to show what he can do and I can’t imagine Brady feels great about that on top of having the suspension reinstated.

We can only hope that someday the NFL gets what’s coming to them and that some more truths from behind the scenes come out. But at this point I’m so ready to put Deflategate finally behind us, even if it means giving Tom a September break.

Now back to draft analysis to cleanse the pallet…

 

2016 Patriots Mock Draft

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The NFL draft is finally upon us and it should be an exciting year despite the Patriots’ lack of a first-round pick. This is my only 2016 Patriots mock draft and I’ve put a lot of time into considering each prospect, especially with the top four picks.

The first four picks of this draft are vital. While I thought the Patriots could trade up in the second, I think they’d be smarter to wait and see which of the quality offensive and defensive tackles fall through the cracks. Those are the positions where need, value and fit will all converge in the late second round.

The wild card position for me is wide receiver, as I’m sure it is for the Patriots themselves. I love Sterling Shepard, but don’t think there are a ton great fits who I feel confident could earn Brady’s trust out of the gate. Leontae Caroo, Tyler Boyd and Braxton Miller all have desirable traits, but I also have questions about all of them that left me indecisive when they were available in my mock draft work.

As always, the draft is crapshoot, not just for bloggers like me who have never been trained as scouts, but for the actually scouts themselves.  But expect the Patriots to add at least a couple players who will play significant roles this season.

You can check out my Top-50 Big Board here for my full list of Patriots fits, all of these prospects have been pulled from there.

Here’s my 2016 mock:

 

Round 2, 60th overall:

Shon Coleman, Tackle, Auburn (6’5″, 307, 35 1/8″ arms)

Shon ColemanFootball games are won in the trenches and though there are other, perhaps more pressing needs, I feel like tackles on both sides of the ball is the way to go with the first two back-to-back picks. That’s where the best value is and with both Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon entering the final years of their deals, it’s the same situation as when the Pats drafted Nate Solder in 2011.

I considered all the top-tanked tackles, and ran dozens of mock drafts. Sometimes Coleman was there, sometime he wasn’t. The big red flag on him is that he took two years off to beat cancer, so he’ll already be 25 this year. Both of those issues existed previously — Cannon overcame cancer and Vollmer was an older prospect, so it’s not scaring me away. And obviously, the guy beat cancer and has a maturity and perspective about him that should make him a good fit in New England. One thing I did more of in my draft research this year was watch interviews with prospects and I love how Coleman spoke and carried himself.

Coleman’s athleticism is what I crave for the Pats o-line, as he was a left tackle at Auburn, and I think he can project to take over the right tackle spot in 2017, while also bringing some much needed athleticism that Vollmer is slowly losing and Cannon never had. He could bring even more value if he can beat Cannon out and make him expendable as the swing tackle. But that might be a tall order right out of the gate.

Jason Spriggs is probably my favorite tackle fit in the class, but I think he’ll be gone by this point. There’s also the issue that Spriggs is probably more of a left tackle and I’m trying to project someone who can end up on the right side. Although I do think the game continues to evolve and the difference between left tackle and right tackle is getting smaller. I’d love to get more athletic at right tackle for the future. Joe Haeg and Willie Beavers are later options who I also think fit extremely well, but I see this spot as one to capture a gem who falls through the cracks.

Round 2, 61st overall (from AZ/Chandler Jones): 

Austin Johnson, Defensive Tackle, Penn State (6’4″, 314)

<a rel=Sticking with the trenches here, my mock drafts always left me choosing between Johnson and Hassan Ridgeway. Johnson has a little more size and a little less concern about his conditioning and overall work ethic so I’m taking him by a nose, though I’d be happy with either player. Johnson adds another dimension with Malcom Brown inside, while Ridgeway seems perhaps a little to similar to Brown, even if he might be better. Johnson would fit right in with Alan Branch and Terrence Knighton, as I believe the Pats will avoid 3-techiques who are undersized but are skilled pass rushers. That role will be for a rotational defensive end.

Johnson is everything the Pats need at defensive tackle now. He can hold his ground vs. double teams, he can push the pocket and get pressure, and is aware of what’s going on around him. He was incredibly productive playing a similar role to what the Pats would ask of him. Combine him with Malcom Brown and the Pats are set inside schematically regardless of what happens when Branch and Knighton’s contracts are up after the season.

Drafting a player like Johnson here, although not a pressing need, is what good teams who want to sustain excellence do. You can’t afford to lack depth or talent on your defensive line and Johnson gives just the right bump of youth and size that the Pats need for their future.

Round 3, 91st overall:

Alex Collins, Running Back, Arkansas (5’10”, 217)

Alex CollinsRunning back is the most pressing need in this draft and a position where the Pats can really round out their offense and add a new dimension to their attack that was severely lacking in the season-ender against the Broncos. Collins is my favorite Pats fit in the draft. While I think Kenneth Dixon would also do the job, there’s just something about Collins on tape to me that screams Patriots to me. He runs how they want their early down/early game back to run. Collins would step right in and give the Pats just what they need — 10-15 carries, grinding out everything that is there.

I do think that the talent dropoff after the third round at running back is significant, the Pats must strike with one, or even two, draft picks sooner that later. That’s why this is the perfect spot for a running back.

There are some late round options who could be interesting, and I also think Davonte Booker and Jonathan Williams could be options that would fit pretty well, but I don’t like either of them as much as I like Dixon and Collins. Though the receiving back role seems sturdy, could the Pats double dip like they did with Ridley and Vereen? I wouldn’t rule it out, but they must get at least one hard-running back here.

Round 3, (96th overall, compensatory):

DJ White, Cornerback, Georgia Tech (5’11”, 193)

DJ WhiteThis is the hardest pick in the mock draft. I’d really prefer to go offensive tackle, defensive tackle, running back and wide receiver with the first four picks, and I’d take them in just about any order, but no matter how many mock draft simulations I ran I could only ever get three prospects I liked in those positions.

So this is probably too high to take White, but he’s my favorite Pats corner fit in the draft. A three-year starter and captain who forced fumbles every season, White has all the instincts, athleticism and character that the Pats demand. He’d instantly step into the mix with the Pats young corner group and, at the very least compete for a starting job in the slot against Justin Coleman, if not push Logan Ryan and Darryl Roberts at the outside spots.

Ryan is entering the last year of his deal, and most seem to think the Pats will invest in Malcolm Butler long-term, though they control his rights as a restricted free agent next offseason. But you can never have too much depth at corner. The Pats were lucky last season as far as injuries are concerned. That might not happen again and after the two outside starters there’s no much else to work with.

Cyrus Jones and Harlan Miller are two other choices I considered around this spot. Ideally a wide receiver would be sitting here at this spot for the taking, but it’s probably too early for someone like Daniel Braverman to be selected.

And now the shots in the dark begin. While I’d predict the Pats make some trades to give them picks in each round, for mock draft purposes I never actually project trades. So here, with the bottom seven picks in the last two rounds, I’m simply sticking in players who I think fit well and ignoring needs for the most part.

Round 6, 196th overall (from HOU Keshawn Martin): Nelson Spruce, WR, Colorado – Spruce isn’t the big name many Patriots fans want, but he’s consistent and productive and has better size than any slot receiver we’ve had at 6’1″, 206 pounds. He’s the classic Patriots fit — doesn’t have the flashy performance numbers, but he’s a football player who competes and catches everything thrown his way. He’s also described as a fearless punt returner. I’m not quite ready to say he’s going to beat Danny Amendola out in training camp, but if he progresses he could give the Pats options at the slot position in the future.

Round 6, 204th overall (from CHI Martellus Bennett): Blake Martinez, LB, Stanford – With Shea McClellin in the mix, I don’t see linebacker as the huge need it was entering the offseason. Still I think they need some depth there and Martinez could give them a developmental player who can run. Martinez is one of the bigger middle linebacker prospects this year (6’2″, 238), he was also a top performer at the combine in bench press, three-cone drill and 20 yard short shuttle. There are still concerns over his quickness, but he plays tough and could immediately play a role on special teams.

Round 6, 208th overall (compensatory): Dan Vitale, FB/H-Back, Northwestern – Nick Caserio had some private one-on-one time with Vitale this offseason and pretty much anyone who studies the Patriots’ draft has Vitale as a potential target. I can’t leave him off because he’s such a unique player and I think Belichick is drawn to them. What stands out most to me is that while Vitale is built like a fullback/h-back hybrid, I’ve never quite seen someone run routes like he does at his size. It’s no wonder his position at Northwestern was called the “Super Back”. Vitale was a top performer at the draft in bench press, vertical jump, 20-yard shuttle and 60-yard shuttle. Special teams would be his way on the roster, but he’s got the Patriots feel to him and many people can see it.

Round 6, 214th overall (compensatory): Keenan Reynolds, RB, Navy – A record-setting player from Navy? Yes, few things are more Belichick-y that that. I’m not sure how Reynolds fits in, whether he could legitimately win a running back roster spot, especially if someone like Collins has already been taken. But I’m trying to nail Pats picks and the Patriots cannot ignore the former quarterback. Fumble issues initially scared me off of this, but as was pointed out to me by many on twitter, these issues were more related to zone read pitches than poor ball security. His passion and leadership are unquestioned, he’d fit seamlessly into the New England locker room, even more so considering Joe Cardona, a fellow former Midshipman, is already on the roster.

Round 6, 221st overall, (compensatory): Ben Braunecker, TE, Harvard – With Martellus Bennett likely only here for a year, there’s definitely a need for a developmental Y tight end and Braunecker is an interesting fit. He was a top performer in every combine category, but his athleticism and strength also translate to the field where he plays with the required edge for blocking. It’s a big step up from Harvard, but the Pats could afford to practice squad him and develop him over the next year.

Round 7, 243rd overall: Mike Thomas, WR, Southern Miss: A small school receiver who plays with “his hair on fire”, I love doubling up at the wide receiver position in this draft. Thomas is  a small school guy but leaves everything he’s got on the field on every snap. He could use some time to develop, but he checks all the boxes coming in.

Round 7, 250th overall (from HOU Ryan Mallett): Joel Heath, DL, Michigan St. – Heath’s a guy that kept popping up in my draft research and seems to follow a model the Patriots often consider – the guy with great size, versatility and leadership skills who never quite found a position in college and thus his production was underwhelming. The Pats love to plug guys like that into their system to see if they can awaken a beast. Heath seems worth the shot and will compete hard in training camp, possibly earning a practice squad spot.

Getting a Feel for the Patriots Draft Positions

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I’ll unleash my only Patriots mock draft of the spring this Thursday and in preparation for it I’ve been running dozens of mock drafts on FanSpeak’s mock draft generator. Some interesting trends have started to emerge, and it also forces me to go back and consider guys that I left off my initial Top-50 Big Board.

Patriots 2016 Draft Slots

Patriots 2016 Draft Slots

Here’s what we can say about the Patriots’ draft — their four picks at the end of the second and third rounds are vital. I find myself constantly looking at some combination of these four positions – offensive tackle, defensive tackle, running back and wide receiver. Then there’s a huge gap of 100 picks that takes us all the way to the bottom of the sixth round with generally no exciting names left on the board.

Even combining the two early 6th rounders (196 & 204) doesn’t get the Pats up to the fifth round very far, which leads me to think that one of those first four picks will have to traded away to give them a fourth-round pick, and hopefully add a pick in 2017 as well.

Which pick gets dealt is likely related to how the board falls, but while I used to think the Pats could even trade up in the second round, I’m finding that less and less likely because 60 and 61 are a great spot to find the value that falls through the cracks.

With such big gaps in this board, it’s extremely difficult to predict how things will unfold. The big gaps in this draft are 59 picks, 100 picks, then finally 22 picks.

Positionally I was intrigued by this note from Mike Reiss over the weekend:

What the Patriots are valuing from a traits standpoint at defensive tackle could be changing. That is how one member of the Patriots front office described Friday’s decision to waive one-time starter Chris Jones, which came two days after jettisoning Easley. Both Jones and Easley fit best in a more traditional 4-3, and the Patriots seem poised to phase out 3-technique tackles on their roster while focusing more on bigger, stouter tackles.

Notice that this doesn’t necessarily signal a scheme change, just that the Pats are okay using a third defensive end in the designated pass rusher spot instead of specifically have an upfield defensive tackle who would likely only contribute in sub-packages. Sub is still 75 percent of the snaps so it’s hard to say a defensive tackle like that is truly a niche role, but you can understand the thinking the Pats might have.

As I’ve said thousands of times over the past four years, saying the defense is going back to a 3-4 doesn’t really make sense. The game is different now than when the Patriots could play the 3-4 for an entire game, rarely bringing on an extra defensive back, like they did in the 2000’s. I first said it around 2011, nickel is base now. The 3-4 is Belichick’s teaching defense. They will always have the 3-4 for specific run-stopping situations, but you’re talking at most about maybe 15-20 percent of the snaps in a game they might play the 4-3, and overall they were in regular (four DB) defense less than 25 percent in all of 2015.

The scheme now is essentially two big defensive tackles doing the job that two defensive ends and a nose tackle used to do in the 3-4 — eat space and allow the linebackers and hybrid edge players to make plays. So really, it’s more of a 2-5 now that they play anyway.

How will this affect the draft is most interesting to me because there are plenty of interesting 3-technique players who aren’t ideal space eaters that guys like Branch, Brown and Knighton are. A guy like Sheldon Day of Notre Dame intrigues me because he’s no a pure one-gapper though he’s built like one. That’s the kind of guy that will be available when the Pats are selecting.

I still think there’s an argument to be made that you need a versatile corps of interior defenders and someone like Day could certainly be helpful to give the Pats defense a different twist. But if they are set on sticking with nose tackles and former 5-techniques inside, someone like Austin Johnson of Penn State could fit the bill if he falls to the late-second. But again, how many of those 6’5″, 315-plus guys can you really use?

Ideally I think you have to go OT and DT with the first two picks. Those are the most important positions in football, where the battle is won. Running back, wide receiver and cornerback are certainly needs, but I’m finding not much difference in talent between the 2nd, 3rd and even fourth round with those positions. But the dropoff at offensive tackle and defensive tackle, especially looking for specific skills sets (i.e. athleticism at tackle and size at defensive tackle), falls off a cliff pretty quickly after the second round. Both are deep classes, but at important positions so I expect an early run on both.

And again, I don’t even know how big a need defensive tackle truly is for 2016. If they were trying to replace Easley I’d say go grab someone like Day. If they want to stick with Brown, Branch, Knighton-types, they aren’t in dire straits for another guy that size to come in and play significant minutes. So defensive tackle and cornerback (which is a similar long-term insurance/depth need) could really wait until the middle rounds.

 

 

Shea McClellin’s Position Fit in Patriots Free Agency 2016

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Shea McClellin is the Patriots’ highest paid free agent acquisition on defense this offseason at three years, $9,050,000. We can safely assume that he will play a significant role in the team’s long term plans. The most buzzing news around the media circuit right now regarding NFL player props is how big his role with the Pats will be. He was largely considered a bust after being selected in the first round of the 2012 draft when he failed to live up to expectations. He was the 19th overall pick. However, he restored some hope for the Boise State product’s future when he moved to inside linebacker.

McClellin’s athleticism and versatility were perfect for his new role off the line, but he and the Bears both believed that a fresh start is essential for both sides. Because of this, the Monsters of the Midway didn’t agree to pick up his fifth year option. According to them, it was for McLellin’s own good and his best interest. They believed that right from the start Chicago wasn’t the most appropriate fit for him. Some people consider him to be Rob Ninkovich‘s successor because of his versatility as a defender. However, based on the observations from his first four years in the NFL, many believe that this future looks most promising as an inside linebacker.

Patriots sign Shea McClellinSTRUGGLING ON THE DEFENSIVE END

McClellin struggled during his first few years playing for Chicago. This was despite him having a productive college career. He wasn’t able to portray the balance and agility required to bend around the edge. He also didn’t have the capacity to use his lower body power to perform exceptionally. He didn’t have violent hands nor a wide range of moves in his arsenal. Additionally, since the very beginning McClellin was never the best in being an edge defender. He lacked the appropriate size which made him average in the trenches. The evidence is shown clearly by his lack of NFL strength and caliber power which are required for the position. However, if he’s not asked to play the edge full-time, McClellin’s experience as a pass rusher and in space only gives the Patriots more options how to deploy him in New England.

UNTAPPED POTENTIAL AS A LINEBACKER

McClellin’s value significantly increased when he moved to the inside linebacker in the Windy City. However, his struggles were still evident. He was left exposed because Chicago lacked the necessary double team-demanding defensive linemen. He struggled in shedding blocks from offensive linemen. He had no choice but to chase them down from behind or tackle ball carriers when they have already burst through the line. He also had troubles regarding pass defense. He would occasionally pass runners off for no particular person. Sometimes, he fails to gain the appropriate depth in his zone drops. McClellin also has the tendency to be aggressively engulfed in play action. He usually makes huge opening passage windows in the field. Thankfully for the Patriots fans, his position as a linebacker suits him well. He is considered to be an effective blitzer and a sound tackler. In his past games, he runs well and gives quick reactions. He was where he needed to be without forgetting his main responsibility. In general, he did well in avoiding cut blocks from linemen.

In New England, with some monstrous linemen like Alan Branch and Terrence Knighton in front of him, McLellin should have less oncoming linemen to deal with and he should flourish with his speed.

HIS CONTRIBUTIONS TO NEW ENGLAND

McClellin’s lack of NFL level physical prowess can be mitigated in New England’s scheme. It is understandable why Belichick and the rest of the Patriots personnel saw potential in him. He is an amazing athlete who has high football IQ. Regarding his instincts, it can be improved by coaching sessions and more exposure to play time.  Looking at his past experiences with Chicago, it is safe to assume that McClellin will be the third linebacker for the Patriots and can be mixed and matched with Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins in various  ways. His presence in the defense will be the best position for him to make use of his talents. He could potentially be a great gem among Belinchik’s list of reclamation projects.

New England Patriots 2016 Schedule

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Patriots 2016 Schedule

The NFL released the 2016 schedule today and the Patriots are in for a tough schedule against some of the best teams in the league from both conferences. Here’s a game-by-game breakdown.

Week 1:  Sunday, 9/11, 8:30pm at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday Night Football): The Pats open the season with a return to the site of their Super Bowl 49 win to take on the tough Cardinals in a game that could’ve been a Super Bowl matchup last year. The Cardinals have all the pieces needed to contend again, plus Chandler Jones now, and, playing at home, they should come at the Patriots full-force on both sides of the ball. This is a fascinating matchup between two of the most forward-thinking and innovative teams in the league. What it might ultimately boil down to is how well Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are able to keep last year’s magic going. At least the magic that was happening before the playoffs.

Week 2: Sunday, 9/18, 1pm vs. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are once again in transition, firing Joe Philbin this offseason and replacing him with Adam Gase. Miami’s defensive line is once against fearsome, but can they put it all together? That’s always the question. They showed good fight in beating the Patriots in Week 17 last year. Miami always seems to be a tough place to play for the Pats, even when they don’t have great season. Thank Hoodie this one isn’t in Miami and we’re saving that trip for the end of the season when heat won’t be a factor.

Week 3: Thursday, 9/22, 8:25pm vs. Houston Texans: A quick turnaround in Week 3 gives the Pats an early Thursday night game, which at this point in the season is pretty manageable. With Brock Osweiler in the mix, the Texans now have (or at least hope to have) the piece they were missing last year —  a legit quarterback. The talent on the Texans’ roster is obvious, led by JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins. Coming to New England will be a huge test for the young Texans, one that they surely understand and are likely to embrace. The Pats have had their way with Houston ever since losing to them in 2009 (and losing Wes Welker in the process), this will be a chance for Houston to make a statement and step into the realm of the AFC contenders. Will the Texans be finding their stride this early in the season? I’m not convinced.

Week 4:  Sunday, 10/2, 1pm, vs. Buffalo Bills: It’s a love/hate relationship with Rex Ryan. The Pats’ games with him are always entertaining, at least off the field before the game begins. The Bills will be looking for Tyrod Taylor to build on a breakout 2015 season and if he can get a full season from stud receiver Sammy Watkins that will certainly help. The Bills are scrappy and have the pieces to knock off the Pats. But having the pieces and doing it, especially in New England, are two hugely different things.

Week 5: Sunday, 10/9 at 1pm at Cleveland Browns: The Browns didn’t look much better on paper when they upset the Pats in Cleveland in 2010, but it’s hard to see this team hanging with this Patriots team that is vastly more talented than they were in 2010. Cleveland always is a special place for Bill Belichick and I’m sure he’d like to get that last loss off his mind.

Week 6: Sunday, 10/16 at 1pm vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Early last season it seemed like the Pats and Bengals were on a collision course in the AFC. Then Andy Dalton got hurt, the Bengals faded in the standings and blew a playoff win over the Steelers by imploding. With the departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, the Bengals will have a different look on offense this year and likely take a step backwards. Still, their defense has talent. The Bengals squeaked out a win over the Pats in 2013, but outside of that rain-soaked game, the Pats have handled them easily.

Week 7: Sunday, 10/23 4:25pm at Pittsburgh Steelers: With the changes in Denver, it seems like only Pittsburgh is left of veteran teams that can challenge the Patriots’ AFC supremacy. Martavis Bryant’s suspension looms large, but the Steelers should have LeVeon Bell back in the mix, testing the Patriots sometimes suspect run defense. Malcolm Butler gets another shot at covering Antonio Brown — that should be an interesting matchup to watch to see if the young corner has developed his game since the 2015 opener.

Week 8: Sunday, 10/30 at 1pm at Buffalo Bills: Always one of the best atmosphere’s in football, the Pats travel to see Rex and the Bills again before their bye week.

Week 9: BYE – After last year’s early week four bye week, injuries decimated the Patriots and they never got a chance to catch their breath. This year it’s the ideal scenario, a late bye week right in the middle of the season to let the team re-group and refocus for the stretch run.

Week 10: Sunday 11/13 8:30pm vs. Seattle Seahawks (Sunday Night Football): A rematch of Super Bowl 49, this should be a fantastic game against two teams who have seen little dropoff since they last met in Arizona. The Seahawks haven’t been to New England since 2004, with the Pats going 1-1 in Seattle, winning in 2008 behind Matt Cassel and blowing a lead and losing in 2012. Can the Seahawks be the same team without Marshawn Lynch? Will Jimmy Graham make more of an impact in year two? Can the Seahawks figure out what made Tom Brady unstoppable against their defense at the end of Super Bowl 49? So many interesting matchups between two great teams. The Pats have an extra week to prepare and that usually helps though doesn’t ensure a win.

Week 11: Sunday, 11/20 4:25pm at San Francisco 49ers: Tom Brady finally gets a chance to play near his hometown after missing out in 2008’s regular season and not making it to the Super Bowl in San Fran last year. The 49ers are obviously in major transition and this figures to be one of the few easy matchups for the Pats in 2016. Could the long travel set them up for a letdown? That might be the 49ers only chance.

Week 12: Sunday 11/27 8:30pm at New York Jets (Sunday Night Football): The Pats went 1-1 against the Jets last season and both games were tight contests. There was no dropoff in the transition from Rex Ryan to Todd Bowles. The Jets always play the Pats hard and though there’s plenty still up in the air with this Jets’ team, they should be ready to attack the Patriots once again. Unless of course they manage to lose Ryan Fitzpatrick and are stuck with Geno Smith or someone worse.

Week 13: Sunday 12/4 at 1pm vs. Los Angeles Rams: The Rams have plenty of talent on defense and are likely to have first overall pick Carson Wentz or Jared Goff at quarterback with not much around him to work with other than running back Todd Gurley. This game will have special meaning for Chris Long and he should be getting after Wentz/Goff all afternoon. Aaron Donald against the Patriots’ interior offensive line will be a spot to watch. He can singlehandedly destroy an offensive gameplan.

Week 14: Monday 12/12 at 8:30pm vs. Baltimore Ravens (Monday Night Football): The Pats didn’t see the Ravens last season. Baltimore might’ve been the only team hit harder by injuries in the league, but they should be reloaded and ready to contend in the AFC once again in 2016. Regardless of how the rest of the offseason shakes out, the Ravens almost always give the Pats a hard time. As always, this is a must-watch game, and at this point in the season, this could be one with major playoff implications.

Week 15: Sunday, 12/18 4:25pm at Denver Broncos: This is probably the game most of the Patriots and their fans are circling out of the gate with the Pats having their season ended there for the second time in three years, and the third time overall for Brady and Belichick. The Broncos are suddenly a team in transition, losing both their top two quarterbacks along with significant pieces on defense like Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan. Despite these changes, a win in Denver would do a lot for this Patriots team mentally by getting them over the hump that kept the from playing in the last three-straight Super Bowls.

Week 16: Saturday, December 24th 1pm, vs. New York Jets: A Christmas Eve special against the Jets! The season ends with the same opponents as last year only this time they’ll get the Jets in Foxboro. As always it’s hard to tell how meaningful these games will be. Last year they lost both of the them and failed to hold homefield advantage that likely cost them a shot in the Super Bowl. But no one plays the Pats harder than the Jets and no matter what the records or what’s at stake, this will be a close one.

Week 17: Sunday 1/1 1pm at Miami Dolphins: The same ender as last year that saw the Pats lose to Miami and almost lost Tom Brady during a scary sack. With a first-year head coach it’s unlikely Miami is in playoff contention at this point. Still after last year we can’t take anything for granted. But this will be a nice warm way to end the season as long as it doesn’t cost the Pats a place in the standings or any injuries.

Patriots 2016 Schedule Analysis

Here’s what jumps out to me on the schedule:

  • Perfect bye week – always where I look first, you can’t get any better that the bye week right in the middle of the season.
  • Three Straight vs. AFC North – Weeks Five through Seven figure to challenge the Pats physically, going up against three traditionally physical teams in the Browns, Bengals and Steelers.
  • Ravens/Broncos Back-To-Back: The Pats playoff positioning will be decided with these two huge games in early December. Of course the Broncos will be a different team this year and by that point maybe even out of contention. Still, those are the two biggest Patriot rivals outside the division at this point.
  • No Brutality: Generally the schedule is pretty well spread out. There’s no brutal travel as both west coast-ish trips are at opposite ends of the schedule.
  • Denver game might be meaningless: And I’m fine with that. Maybe we can put the final nail in Mark Sanchez’s coffin.
  • Love the Start: Maybe an ideal start to the season with a great (but low pressure) opener in Arizona, followed by three home games that should all be very winnable. The real problems start with Cinci and Pitt in October but…
  • If Brady is suspended the first four games: (which I don’t think he will be but still…) There are two home divisional games which in my book are always must-win. Imagine Garoppolo losing those games setting things up for a tight AFC East divisional race all year, which would then mean Brady has to win in Buffalo, New York and Miami later in the season.
  • Primetime Games: Three Sunday Night games (Cardinals, Seahawks and Jets) and one Monday Night game (Ravens). This seems like a low number of national games for the Pats. Maybe it will help them stay under the radar a bit? Nah.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Patriots 2016 Hall of Fame Finalists announced

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A 20-person nomination committee selects Raymond Clayborn, Kevin Faulk and Mike Vrabel as the 2016 Patriots Hall of Fame finalists. Patriots fans now have until May 14 to vote for the nominee most deserving of hall of fame honors.

Source: Patriots 2016 Hall of Fame Finalists announced | New England Patriots

Tough, tough choice here. Raymond Clayborn’s number’s don’t lie but most of us are guilty of recency bias and seeing two legends like Kevin Faulk and Mike Vrabel up there really pulls the attention away. Clayborn’s been nominated for his third-straight time, so it’s kind of now or never for him. He should probably be the guy right now, but is likely to once again be overshadowed by guys who helped the Pats win multiple Super Bowls.

But if we ignore Clayborn for a moment, as most new-ish Patriots fans are doing, how do you choose between Faulk and Vrabel? Both had so many huge plays in huge games that easily and immediately come to mind. Can you really say which was more valuable to the dynasty? I’d argue for Faulk that his value really spiked later in his career, like 2006-2009, though he broke 1000 yards from scrimmage in 2000 and 2003. 2008 he was vital to helping Matt Cassel with the third-most yards-from-scrimmage of his career.

As for Vrabel, I can’t lie. He’s one of my all-time favorite Pats and as we all know now, maybe the smartest player to ever play for Belichick. And the way he came to the team, as a Steeler castoff, only makes him really embody a huge part of what has made the Belichick Pats so good. The clutch Super Bowl touchdowns, the big sacks, playing any position on defense just about, Vrabel did it all and did it all at a high level.

In some ways I feel like Vrabel and Faulk are the flip side of the same coin. Somewhat unsung and under-appreciated but unquestionably the kind of players that the dominance of the 2000s was built on. While I think Vrabel probably wins the vote and gets into the HOF, Faulk shouldn’t have to wait long.