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Patriots Draft Joe Thuney 78th overall

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The Patriots addressed their offensive line with their second pick in the 2016 NFL draft, selecting Joe Thuney of NC State with the 78th overall selection. Thuney is 6′ 5″, 304 pounds and played all over the line, starting at every spot before spending his senior year at left tackle.

I missed on Thuney on my big board because he was often projected to guard, but obviously his versatility stands out so who knows exactly where he will end up with the Patriots. The fun part for me is now to take a long hard look at him and figure where I think he fits.

The biggest question is how athletic he is. I wanted an athletic tackle at the top of this draft but I’m not sure if we have one. If Thuney needs to go inside to guard he can certainly backup a number of positions, but the Pats already have good young depth at guard and center.

So for the second time tonight the concern is that Thuney, like Jones, is a bit redundant to what the Pats already have. But given what Dante Scarnecchia has done with far less in the past, Thuney could surprise his critics.

He also seems incredibly bright, solving Rubik’s cubes no prob and killing the Wonderlic:

There was an unquestionable need and if Thuney can fit in as a tackle, he could have an opportunity to start before long. Clearly the Pats see something in him that most other scouting outlets haven’t, at least ranking him higher than most, but I’ll go with the Pats opinion over all else. We’ll see how he fits in.

1 for 2 on my top 50 big board now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s72Ocs21gl0

Patriots Draft Cyrus Jones 60th Overall

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After sitting out the first round, the New England Patriots made their first selection of the 2016 NFL draft at 60th overall, taking cornerback Cyrus Jones out of Alabama. The Pats then flipped pick #61 for picks #78 and #112 to round out the gaps in their selections.

Most Patriots draft pundits were circling Jones this offseason, as he fits what the team wants out of their cornerbacks now — ability to play physical press man, good against the run, and also brings special teams experience as an excellent returner, with four punt returns for touchdowns this past season. He was formerly a wide receiver so he has skills to make plays on the ball which is always a plus in forcing turnovers, he also defended 20 passes over the last two seasons.

He’s only 5′ 10″, so it’s likely he’ll be a slot corner, and steps into competition with Justin Coleman, who performed well in that spot as a rookie. The big question is whether or not he could play outside, because the need for an outside starter next season (if Logan Ryan departs) could be significant. On the surface it doesn’t look like Jones will fit that potential need, which was why many (not me) were banging the cornerback drum as a major need.

I think this pick was a bit of a reach at this spot and I made no secret I far preferred to take an offensive tackle or defensive tackle here in the second round. Cornerback could be a need in 2017, but this is just could end up being a pick redundant to what the Pats got out of Coleman last season.

But Jones’ fit with the Patriots was obvious to everyone despite his limitations and any lack of perceived value at this spot, and I did indeed have him on my Top-50 big board, so we’re off to a pretty good start. The hope has to be that he upgrades Coleman immediately, but it will be up to training camp competition to determine that. Sounds like Jones will come in and compete hard, so you have to like that.

Is Tom Brady a Deflation Scheme Mastermind?

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I’m starting to come around on Tom Brady exhausting every available option in pursuit of his innocence in the Deflategate mess. Everyone’s sick of it? So what. Keep it in the news as it slowly convinces more and more of the masses what a massive hose job by the NFL it was. Still, there are plenty of emboldened folks out there convinced Tom Brady was a deflation scheme mastermind. I wonder what that really looks like, because even in trying to take off my Patriots-homer-pom-pom hat as Dan Shaugnessy suggested, I have trouble piecing together how a  Deflation Scheme Scenario would actually work.

These are the deflation scheme points that vex me:

1. Brady specifically directed Jastremski and McNally to secretly deflate the footballs after the refs checked them.

So Brady wanted the balls BELOW 12.5, which of course, was never actually said by anyone, but that’s the core assumption. After he meticulously chooses his gameballs, he’s fine with McNally stopping by a bathroom and haphazardly sticking a pin in all of them. The flatter the better? How low can the PSI before it starts affecting throws? Ever try to throw a flat football? Any benefit of a slightly softer ball will eventually be offset by the inaccuracy it causes.

Even if you buy the entirety of the Wells Report, and specifically the Exponent study, as fact, do you know how much air McNally let out of the balls in that bathroom? .4%  How is it even possible to let that little amount of air out, much less necessary?

And why of all games would anyone want flat footballs in a cold, rainy 2014 AFC Championship game? Secretly deflating the Colts balls, I’d get. But your own? Flatter footballs in the cold and rain? That makes no sense to me and if anything, I’d imagine Brady would want to kill McNally if he really did what the NFL surmises. That’s why it’s no wonder Brady played better with balls that were re-inflated.

Wouldn’t it have been even more fun if they re-measured the balls at the end of the game and holy shit, they’re below 12.5 again!!! How did the Patriots do it!?!?!

2.  Texts from McNally: calling self the Deflator, saying he’s not going to ESPN yet, “stress getting them done”, etc.

There’s no way around these texts and they’re the core evidence sited by any Low Information Deflategator, Michael Felger, Shaugnessy and all the rest of ’em. Without these texts there’s nothing to build any case at all.

But here’s the thing(s) they all want to ignore:

McNally Deflate TextJastremski’s texts to his fiancee, “Panda”, that said the balls were supposed to be at 13 PSI after the November 2014 Jets game? Why would he have any reason to lie about it to her? And clearly this was a big deal, and seemingly a novel problem from him to share it with his beloved Panda. If there was a Deflation scheme, this would’ve been a problem yes, but entirely McNally’s fault and probably somewhat expected if he failed to get the air out of them.

Or what about McNally’s text to Jastremski during the 2014 Packers game? McNally was in New Hampshire, texting Jastremski on the Green Bay sidelines to “deflate and give somebody that jkt”.

This at least signals to me that “deflate” was a slang term to them. Not saying I totally buy the Patriots’ explanation it was a weight loss thing, but they are using it in a ball busting way. And as anyone who has ever texted knows, it’s often a cavalcade of inside jokes, ball busting and slang.

You can’t accept the some texts as the foundation of your argument and then simply ignore the rest that contradict it, or at least provide a little more context.

The asking for swag and threats to blow the footballs up like “balloons” don’t really bother me. Anyone who’s ever been around a pro sports team knows shits getting signed and given away constantly, especially to part-time employees who aren’t getting paid shit. And as mundane as it seems, Jastremski and McNally’s entire professional relationship was about footballs. So yes, that’s what they joked about even if McNally was technically employed to assist the referees.

Let’s also remember this is absolutely everything Ted Wells could drum up. Just a few vague text messages that came months apart. If there was truly a living-breathing Deflation Scheme afoot I’d think there’d be more than there this. Especially after the November 2014 Jets game that McNally would have had to have screwed up by failing to Deflate.

3. Timeline?

I still don’t understand what the NFL’s time line is. All the texts and testimony about the Patriots and PSI go only back to the November 2014 Jets game. The “deflator” text came in May 2014. So on one hand the Wells Report is saying plans went into place in the fall, but are also implying that something “deflate-y” was going on before that as well.

But we’re not sure that Brady et al even knew what the exact PSI rules were prior to November 2014. From all the text messages and testimony that Jets game was significant and the first time Brady and Jastremski actually discussed PSI numbers.

So we’re to believe that Brady was just telling McNally: “Make sure they’re pretty flat? How flat? I don’t know, just stick that fucking needle in them and hold it there, a-one, a-two and then we’re good. You can have unlimited Uggs and autographs.” That’s what went down?

And again, Brady’s supposed to totally trust Jim McNally, the gameday employee, to execute this plan with his carefully selected balls? That’s what the Deflation Scheme-ists believe? It does seem exciting and sinister but I can’t not see the holes in it.

 

What if Jastremski ordered the code red?

This is a scenario where I can almost buy a Deflation scheme: Jastremski telling McNally to make sure the balls were never too over-inflated, even if he has to let a little air out of them with a secret needle. McNally gets favored nation status with the Brady swag and they make sure Tom never knows the gameday employee is messing with his precious game balls.

Jastremski knows Tom likes them a little flatter and knows the refs often mess with them so he employs McNally to apply any means necessary, especially if the ref puts air into them during his review. They start at 12.5, then McNally makes sure they at least stay there, maybe get even lower. Every (home) game. (McNally doesn’t work on the road)

So this Code Red scenario doesn’t matchup with Jastremski’s 13 PSI Panda text, but it takes Brady out of the equation and at least makes the other texts matchup. But it also makes the November 2014 Jets game solely a major fuck up by McNally, by failure to deflate after the ref’s over-inflate. Seems like that kind of mess up would certainly be worthy of some “WTF Bird, U didnt dflt!” texts, but there were none of those.

So yeah, this theory doesn’t exactly work either.

Jastremski ordering the code red is as close as I can get to believing the Deflation Scheme theory. I just can’t buy that Brady knew and trusted McNally to actually deflate footballs every (home) game, no matter the conditions. For someone so particular about the feel of his balls, I can’t imagine Brady thought McNally pinning the balls gave him a consistent known advantage. It’s far too haphazard and it seems like there’s a far great chance of screwing up the balls that Brady already picked out.

But what it all comes back to is why? Why would Tom Brady even want to deflate his footballs below the legal limit? There are those who would have you believe slightly deflated balls are never dropped nor fumbled, but you’d certainly never want an even flatter ball in a cold and wet weather game.

Even I can admit the Wells Report has those text messages from McNally which can easily fit into a Deflation Scheme theory. But the other text messages muddy those waters just enough to add doubt that it’s as easily cut and dry as some believe it is. I know the Patriots are always looking for an edge, even if it’s a gray area of the rule book, but a deflation scheme seems like it has just as much potential to have adverse effects as it does giving any kind of advantage.

Of course the Deflation Scheme-ists won’t try to explain any of this. Those few texts from McNally (and not the other texts) are enough for them to buy an entire plot, despite zero hard evidence of anything happening in this game or any other game. Despite Tom Brady being the only person in this whole charade to testify under oath.

None of this will ever add up to me, and that’s why I continue to truly believe there never was a deflation scheme.

Scouting Notebook: Matt Miller’s Final Team-by-Team Reports | Bleacher Report

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The Patriots are a hard team to get solid info on, but one scout said strong safety could be targeted with one of their two Round 2 selections. Scouts familiar with New England’s draft plans said the team will target a stand-up pass-rusher to replace Chandler Jones with one of the Day 2 picks.

Source: Scouting Notebook: Matt Miller’s Final Team-by-Team Reports, Jared Goff Q&A

Ah, the final few days before the draft, when the misinformation flows fast and furious. The worst part about it is that I think the Patriots have an active counterintelligence program that purposely tries to fake everyone out. Regardless at this point I’d be shocked if the Pats took a strong safety and a defensive end with their first two picks.

The depth at strong safety is Patrick Chung, who just got his second new contract from the Patriots since returning in 2014. Those signs point to the team be extremely happy with his place on the team. Behind him is second-year player Jordan Richards, who showed some pop in limited defensive snaps last year.

Richards is a key player moving forward, especially if Chung’s injury history catches up to him again after two remarkably healthy seasons. That’s how close Richards could be to starting and playing a significant (early-down) presence on defense.

Tavon Wilson did leave, so I do see strong safety as a need, and while the Pats always have a penchant for drafting the position higher than anyone expects, it’s hard to see the value in taking a Chung backup/Richards competition guy when the value of the talent at vital positions like offensive and defensive tackle should be excellent where they’re drafting.

As for defensive end, I see Jabaal Sheard elevating to the starting spot as he had done in the playoffs last year. Rob Ninkovich is the other starter, but I think we could see some more rotation with him this year as I’m expecting old pal Nink to start declining sooner than later.

That’s where Chris Long comes in, and I think people will be surprised by how much he has left in the tank after two injury-riddled seasons made everyone forget how good he was. Long is ideal for Sheard’s early-season role last year as the designated pass rusher.

Then there’s the three young guys — Trey Flowers, Geneo Grissom and Rufus Johnson. All three had their moments last year, mostly in the preseason, but there’s reason for optimism that one can hopefully emerge to play a role on defense, especially with the top three guys all entering the last years of their deals.

I could see a rookie entering the competition with the other young guys, but I see the defensive tackles as far deeper and far better fits in this rookie class. Seems impossible for even a second-round rookie to get any higher than fourth on depth chart, so I’m not high on a high-round choice at defensive end. Too much redundancy.

Check out my Top-50 Draft Board here and my mock draft here.

The Patriots Are Not on the Clock: Deflategate Fallout Looms Large in NFL Draft | Bleacher Report

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Players, coaches and executives have come to view the Patriots’ situation as a referendum on commissioner power. Many of the sources I spoke to used the same word: “railroaded.” As in, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell railroaded the Patriots. As in, the commissioner used his power unfairly and arbitrarily.They think, in effect, that what happened to the Patriots could happen to any of them.

Source: The Patriots Are Not on the Clock: Deflategate Fallout Looms Large in NFL Draft | Bleacher Report

Oh, so now the rest of the NFL starts to get over their blinding Patriots hate and sees this whole charade for what it really was — a railroading. I’m still so surprised by those who checked out after the Wells Report, assured the Patriots were cheating cheaters who finally got caught cheating. Yes, there are actually still football fans who are Team Goodell in this once single solitary instance, because they hate the Patriots.

Anyone who read any bit of material beyond the Wells Report and the NFL’s court arguments should see that there was plenty about this whole thing that reeked of not just unfairness but of a systematic attempt to win the case both in real court and the court of public opinion no matter what the truth actually was.

And yes, if you can get over how much you hate the Patriots, you’ll see that arbitrary and severe punishment is now the law of the land in the NFL.

Still, for all the hate that Commissioner Goodell gets, and yes, he is uniquely terrible, it’s still the owners that control the NFL. Goodell is, for most purposes, just the figurehead. The one who gets paid a huge salary to take all the flack. And if it wasn’t Roger Goodell it’d be someone else we’d all despise. But it’s the owners that want an 18-game season and games all over the earth and games on Thursday every week and every other shitty addition that’s happened to the NFL under Goodell’s watch.

The NFL is the owners, not Roger Goodell.

So this article is a bit significant, if true. If the owners are starting to see how, even on his short leash, that Goodell is still mishandling every instance of discipline that comes his way, they could actually institute real change. And maybe that’s enough to put punishment in the hands of someone, or someones, who can rule neutrally and fairly based on the facts and precedent, instead of over-correcting and applying broad powers to make up for other past punishments that didn’t go far enough in the eyes of some.

 

Second-Guessing My Patriots Draft Predictions

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With the draft just a few days away and as I settle with my Top-50 board, mock draft and general feeling of where the Patriots will attack this draft, I find myself wondering where the Pats might zag on my zig.

The first four picks, back-to-back in both the second and third rounds, are vital, especially without a first round pick this year. My four positions that I think they’ll address are 1. Running Back 2. Defensive Line 3. Offensive Tackle and 4. Wide Receiver. That’s the order of likelihood I think they’ll draft those positions, not the order of need.

I think a defensive tackle will fall to them in the second round, but I am unsure if they’ll ignore penetrating three techniques as much as I predicted they will. I went with Austin Johnson, who seems to fit the role of Alan Branch and Terrence Knighton in the scheme. Both of those vets are free agents next year. But names like Sheldon Day, who is more like Dominique Easley than a monster in the middle.

Now, I’m second-guessing that I should’ve gone in that direction, toward the three-techniques, despite Mike Reiss’ report a couple weeks ago that the he heard the Pats were getting away from that style of defensive tackle after a brief experiment with them. I’m conflicted about that.

After all, I was Mr. Interior Rush Drum Banger circa 2010. Maybe Easley has me spooked. I don’t know. I do think they’re limited in how much they can play in this defense, and that Malcom Brown is versatile enough to play three downs. That will leave a Ninkovich-Brown-Sheard-Long best pass rush front, hopefully with Trey Flowers contributing early and emerging later as solid rotational player. Still not sure how Geneo Grissom fits in either. But there’s a ton of depth at defensive end and they can cover the role Easley was being used for, although it would make the front a bit lighter.

A lot of people disliked my offensive tackle pick, but I still think they should hit that position early with an athletic right tackle-of-the-future. The main positional conflict was with those wanting a wide receiver. As much as I tried to find one, I couldn’t find a wide receiver I really loved and felt checks all the boxes for the Pats, except for Sterling Shepard.

There certainly were guys with the right traits, but all had some sort of red flag, or just didn’t jump off the tape to me. I think wide receiver is still the position where fanalysts try to jam talent down our throats, when we’ve discussed time and again how hard it is for a wide receiver in this system. I like guys like Leontae Carroo and Braxton Miller, I just don’t feel great about them picking things up immediately.

Still, I’d love to see them take a chance on a wide receiver early, I just believe the talent and value in the late-second round is far better at offensive and defensive tackle, and those positions are far more vital to the long-term health of the franchise. Many want a big X-receiver type, but I’m more than fine with a “get open quick” type to help manage Edelman and Amendola’s wear and tear a bit.

Finally, I feel good about my view of the running back spot. I went with Arkansas’ Alex Collins, but I could see any of this group – Jonathan Williams, Kenneth Dixon and Devontae Booker — fitting in well with the need, which I see as an early down pounder. What would surprise me would be if the Pats targeted more of a receiving back.

There’s plenty of groupthink picks out there too by all us Pats pundits. Keenan Reynolds, Dan Vitale and Daniel Braverman are just a few that almost everyone has connected to the Pats at some point.

It’s a big week and Friday and Saturday should be a lot of fun. As always, I’ll be surprised if I’m not surprised at least a couple time by who the Pats take. You can bet your money at least one of the picks will be a player none of us have heard of or studied. That’s what makes it fun.

Despite their lack of a first round pick, the Patriots should be able to improve their team and fill a number of holes.

Tom Brady’s Deflategate Suspension Reinstated

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Tom Brady's Deflategate SuspensionThe US Second Court of Appeals reinstated Tom Brady’s Deflategate suspension today and this could be the end of the line for Brady and the NFLPA’s chances at appealing it, meaning the Pats could have Jimmy Garoppolo under center to start the 2016 season.

Essentially this court ruled 2-1 that Roger Goodell has the power to do whatever he wants because of the powers the NFLPA gave him in the latest CBA. We’re so far past this being actually about what actually happened with the balls during the 2014 AFC Championship Game, and here we sit, a year-and-a-half later with judges going back and forth ruling just what exactly the NFL can do to its players.

The NFLPA is weighing their options, which include trying to take this to the Supreme Court, but that could be a long shot. Now, it might just be in the best interest of everyone to drop it. This kills me to say it. The NFL played this whole investigation to win by any means necessary from the get-go. It was never about the truth and yes, it’s infuriating that they can stack the deck at every turn, leak lies to the media to support their version of the events and shape the narrative they want, then finally levy an unprecedented punishment at their whim.

Winnable Games in September

As I’ve said all along the real damage is the first round pick the Patriots won’t have this Thursday. Clearly that ship has sailed regardless, and with four picks in the first two rounds, I still think the Pats can overcome that loss of draft capital.

What are the real potential ramifications if Brady does sit the first four games: @ Cardinals, vs. Dolphins, vs. Texans, and vs. Bills?

Obviously Jimmy Garoppolo is now entering year three and has shown enough potential and should have a grasp of the offense that the Patriots should not be in a death spiral, especially getting the two most favorable divisional games on the schedule, though neither are certain victories. If those games were on the road in Miami and Buffalo, things might be a little different.

With Garoppolo, the Pats would have to scratch and claw in all four of those games, but I’d expect 2-2 at worst.

The entire Patriots starting defense except for Chandler Jones returns and they also still have the most talented offensive weapon on the field for those first four games – Rob Gronkowski, not to mention Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett, Danny Amendola and maybe even Dion Lewis working back into the mix. Even without Brady pulling the trigger, there’s a ton of talent all over this roster, and let’s remember that even with Brady, the Pats have seen their share of 2-2 starts.

The point is, the first four games of the season are not going to make or break the Pats’ 2016 campaign.

Part of me almost welcomes the challenge. Maybe that’s just due to being so sick of Deflategate and lawyers and judges that I just want to stop having to think and blog about them. But it’s also like when I used to play season after season of Madden on franchise mode and it got to the point where it was no longer challenging so I’d always trade my best players away to league rivals to at least make things interesting.

So Jimmy G is very likely going to get a shot to show what he can do and I can’t imagine Brady feels great about that on top of having the suspension reinstated.

We can only hope that someday the NFL gets what’s coming to them and that some more truths from behind the scenes come out. But at this point I’m so ready to put Deflategate finally behind us, even if it means giving Tom a September break.

Now back to draft analysis to cleanse the pallet…