PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Flip Side of the Coin: Brady’s Suspension

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Let me start this post off by saying Tom Brady should not have to sit any games for the whole charade known as Deflategate. There’s no scientific proof the footballs were ever deflated. There’s no evidence Brady was the mastermind of a Deflation scheme. The whole thing was just an excuse to finally get back at Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick, Brady and the rest of the Patriots for both winning too much and the previous charade known as Spygate.

Boil it all down and you have shoddy science supported only by select text messages and the NFL’s skewed slant they did everything they could to sell to the public by any means necessary.

Brady having to sit out games for what the NFL put together in The Wells Report would be an injustice and a travesty…

But…

…if Brady were to sit out the first four games would it actually be in the best long-term interest of the Patriots organization?

I’m just asking the question because at this point, is anyone’s opinion on Deflategate going to change? If the courts finally rule he must sit and he does, will that suddenly mean he really was guilty? Or if it goes all the way to the Supreme Court and they throw the whole thing out, will that mean Brady was innocent?

Nope. Nothing that happens from here on out, no matter how long Deflategate continues to drag on, will change anyone’s mind about what did or didn’t happen. And really everything in the courts now is about process anyway. So if that’s the case is it okay to root for what’s best for the Patriots and (perhaps) Brady?

The benefits are easy.

The Patriots get four manageable games to see what Jimmy Garoppolo’s got. 2017 will be the last offseason the Patriots could move Garoppolo and get compensation for him. Let’s remember that even with Tom Brady, the Patriots aren’t world beaters in September. It’s just as easy to see a 2-2 start with Brady as it is with Garoppolo.

And though the first four games are against teams with some excellent defensive pieces, three of the four (excluding Carson Palmer and the Cardinals) are going to be adjusting to new pieces or new coaches. With the Patriots returning almost everyone on defense we should expect them to exert their will in these games and make them all winnable games for the offense.

The second thing is keeping Brady fresh (and pissed off). Giving Brady the first four games off will not only ensure that he’s rested and healthy come October, but chomping at the bit to get back out there and take his job back.

Brady knows how this works and what can happen when a young “fill in” quarterback seizes his opportunity and leaves the coaching staff with no choice but to stick with him. I’m not saying Garoppolo has that in him, but I’m sure Brady doesn’t want to leave it to chance.

But let’s ponder for a moment, what if Jimmy Garoppolo plays out of his mind? Benching Bledsoe was one thing, but keeping Brady on the sideline? That would be difficult to say the least, but it would be fascinating to see where Patriots nation falls between their beloved TFB and their franchise that will continue on long after TFB is gone. That might be a problem we don’t want to face yet.

I’m hoping Brady never misses a game for the Deflategate nonsense, and it sounds like chances are good he won’t have to, but if things break badly for him in his next appeal attempt it won’t be hard to find some silver linings that should benefit the Pats long term.

Edelman and Amendola Recovering from Offseason Surgeries

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Edelman SurgeriesFor some reason, bad injury news always seems to come in bunches and that’s been the case in the last week with reports that both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola going under the knife during the offseason. Edelman had a “cleanup procedure” on the foot he broke against the Giants last year while Amendola had surgeries on both his left knee (that he sprained last season) and on his ankle (bone spurs).

Word is that both should be fine for the upcoming season, even if it potentially means opening training camp on the PUP list. I try to avoid the doom and gloom here on the blog, but it’s hard to just shrug off our two best receivers going under the knife. Amendola will be 31 this winter while Edelman turns 30 this coming Sunday.

This is just a reminder that just like Troy Brown and Wes Welker before them, inside receivers in New England are a good time for not a long time. The mileage adds up quickly after thirty and the end often comes before you know it. Troy Brown said he was never the same after knee surgery in the early 2000’s.

Not saying this is the beginning of the end for Edelman and Amendola, but it illustrates just how important it is to keep the receiver pipeline fresh. Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan are really important pieces and it’s reasonable to think that to avoid last year’s offensive slowdown that happened without Edelman last year, one of those two newcomers must emerge as a trusted target.

The insurance is the lethal tight end combo of Gronk and Martellus Bennett. Bennett should not only give Brady another good target working the middle of the field, but also take away some of the attention that Edelman and Amendola get inside.

 

Patriots Defense Outlook: Huge D-Tackles, Man Coverage Corners

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Patriots Defense OutlookWe’re closing in on the worst part of the offseason, aka “The Void”, a time to marinate on the roster and start putting together a Patriots defense outlook, among other things. One great thing about having 90 guys on the roster, there’s always something to analyze.

Aside from the usual “are the Pats going back to a 3-4?” question that drives me nuts, it’s easy to read the tea leaves on how the Pats’ scheme will evolve a bit this season. The two easiest areas to start — defensive tackle and cornerback.

Let’s take a closer look at how things have shaken out at those positions this offseason.

Where’s the Beef? The Pats DTs have it

The last couple seasons it appeared the Pats were transitioning to more of a versatile defensive tackle group. Since 2011, when they started going with more even (four-man) fronts, they’ve always had a soft spot for size, but it wasn’t until 2014 and the selection of Dominique Easley where they actually seemed at all interested in penetrators. And it wasn’t just Easley, they kicked the tires on a number of guys who weren’t 300 pounds-plus, like Jerel Worthy to name one.

But this offseason the defensive tackle position came into clearer focus. They jettisoned Easley and Chris Jones, re-signed Alan Branch, signed Terrence Knighton and drafted Vincent Valentine — three guys whose combined weight is over 1000 pounds and all generally fit the same body type.

In the old days of the traditional 3-4, all these players would likely be five technique defensive ends, but now the Pats will mix-and-match them with Malcom Brown, who should be the new Vince Wilfork — playing almost every down and doing a little bit of everything. Brown isn’t the same mold as the others and has excellent lateral movement skills that should make him one of the best playmakers they have up front.

Schematically, the objective seems clear. Occupy the three interior offensive linemen with just two man-mammoths, opening up one-on-one matchups for the defensive ends against the opposing tackles. This should also make trying to run up the middle quite the challenge.

The bigger question becomes what happens on obvious passing situations, especially third-and-long. This was Easley’s sweet spot when he was healthy the last couple years, or sometimes Geneo Grissom in a fill-in role. I believe they’ll use Brown in this role now unless it’s a pure pass rush situation, in which case we might even see four defensive ends.

So look for a Ninkovich-Brown-Long-Sheard front in third-and-medium and then swap in Grissom or Flowers for Brown for third-and-longs.

The defense was torn apart by early-down passing in 2010-2013 and that’s why it will be imperative for the defensive ends to win their one-on-one matchups, especially if the tackles in the middle are not getting push. But the good news is that they can rotate the big men and shouldn’t have to run them into the ground like they did with Wilfork.

Man Coverage is Here to Stay

Last year when Revis, Browner and Arrington were all sent packing the common sentiment was the Patriots must be moving back to more zone coverage. This drove me insane, because I truly believe you can’t play good defense in today’s NFL with a zone-heavy coverage scheme.

Of course, these fears were unfounded when we discovered the Pats still had every intention of sticking to a heavy Cover-1 Man Robber scheme and Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan and Justin Coleman did far better than anyone expected.

This draft only reinforced the fact that man coverage is here to stay, as the Pats used their first pick on a man-cover corner and signed three rookie free agents who can all do the same.

Check out these scouting report tidbits from NFL.com:

Cyrus Jones: Press corner with good build and strong lower half. Plus play strength. Confident and tough. Able to reroute and maintain positioning on receivers.

Jonathan Jones: Man cover specialist with springy feet and ability to shadow his man. Usually near the throw. Has closing burst and ball skills to be aggressively disruptive at the catch point.

V’Angelo Bentley: Shows very good awareness to pre-snap movement and gets his secondary aligned with good communication. Actively attempts to redirect receivers in their routes from zone and sifts through combination routes quickly.

Cre’Von Leblanc: Plays with exceptionally strong hands clutching and challenging receivers from press. Allowed just 34.5 percent completion rate in 2015. Impressive mirror and match footwork to stick to his targets and stay in position to make plays on the ball.

The free agents were all undersized and that’s why they went undrafted. Bentley is the only one whose scouting reports don’t implicitly mention his man coverage skills, but he, like the others, check all the other boxes — fearless tacklers, smart and tough.

Add in last year’s seventh-rounder Darryl Roberts (Can change directions on command and has desired stop/start quickness. Has long arms and is aggressive with them in press coverage.) with what we already know about the corners who played all of last year, and the Pats’ secondary seems primed for more aggressive man coverage in 2016.

Which Patriots Must Emerge in 2016?

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Now that the Patriots’ 2016 roster is mostly set, at least at the top pending any shocker trades, the same few names keep popping up to me as those who must emerge in 2016. Whether it’s a current hole that must be filled or a long-term role that’s lacking stability, it’s essential that each season new faces rise to the occasion and cement their place as legitimate contributors.

Here’s my list:

Trey Flowers

Patriots Must EmergeThe team has a solid three-man rotation at defensive end, led by Rob Ninkovich, Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long, but two of those three are over 30 and all of them will be free agents at the end of the season. Flowers is the most promising of the young trio of backups that also includes Geneo Grissom and Rufus Johnson.

Really, I’d take any one of those three youngsters becoming a significant contributor this year, but finding snaps for more than one in actual game action will be difficult. Flowers was labelled a steal in last year’s draft and we got just a small taste of what he was capable of in limited preseason action. He played just four defensive snaps before being placed on IR in early December.

Meanwhile, Grissom had 131 snaps on defense, recording a sack and three tackles. Grissom was used primarily as an interior rusher early in the season before getting some mop up time at defensive end toward the end of the season. I remain unclear on what his true position is, but his athleticism is certainly not something we should ignore. I’m just not sure he’s going to be a blood-and-guts run-stopping defensive end, and that’s what the future need will be.

Flowers is my favorite of the bunch, the one who seems to fit the defensive end mold of Sheard and Ninkovich the closest, and most important, he’s really tough against the run. An emerging young defensive end who could be paired with a re-signed Jabaal Sheard in 2017 as starters would secure one of the most important positions on the field for the defense. Work in Grissom as a sub rusher and the Pats will have an excellent long-term outlook.

LaAdrian Waddle

I’m starting to feel like I might be beating the Waddle drum a little too loudly the last week since totally discounting him as a factor at tackle in my draft prep. Now he’s my white knight after the Patriots ignored the tackle position in the draft. I won’t say Waddle will emerge as the player I want him to be, but the potential is there.

At one point, he was one of the most athletic and promising right tackles in the game after coming out of Texas Tech and putting together two solid seasons in Detroit before tearing his ACL. If Waddle can recapture the form of those first two seasons he could steal the swing tackle spot from Marcus Cannon this season, and possibly be pencilled in as the starter at right tackle heading toward the 2017 season.

Again, these might be lofty expectations, but I feel like the entire league is headed toward having more athleticism at the right tackle spot, which has traditionally been filled by maybe the worst athlete on the field. We saw Von Miller blazing off the right edge far too much to still believe in the old dynamic of pass rushers attacking your left side and only your left side.

Waddle has plenty working for him if he’s fully healthy, including Cannon’s salary.

Chris Hogan

We saw how good the Patriots offense could be in 2014 when Brandon LaFell gave them a legitimate outside receiver who could pull some pressure away from the Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski inside. Last year, LaFell never regained that form and the Patriots passing offense suffered for it, putting extreme pressure on their key trio of threats and getting all of them injured at various points.

Hogan fits the mold LaFell did coming in and is probably even a better overall athlete that LaFell is. Whether or not his blocking is up to LaFell’s level will remain to be seen, but if Hogan’s a dud, the entire weight of this need will fall to rookie Malcolm Mitchell.

Tom Brady needing to rely on a rookie right out of the gate? Scary. But if Hogan was “always open” in Miami and Buffalo, you have to like his chances of him earning Brady’s trust and blossoming.

Tyler Gaffney

At this point I don’t really know what to expect out of Gaffney, but on paper he has everything the Pats need to round out their running back group. Dion Lewis is coming off an ACL tear. They don’t trust James White to carry the ball. LeGarrette Blount is coming off a hip injury and better served with a complimentary backfield friend. Brandon Bolden is a special teamer who can fill in, but will never be an impact running back. We’ve seen Donald Brown‘s ceiling and it’s not very high.

So yes, everyone else has their issues and Gaffney is the only real unknown who could possibly be seen as an early down back. The Patriots not only made a point to poach him from the Panthers, but by cutting then re-signing him to adjust his contract. If they saw nothing in him they would’ve just cut bait by this point. Just don’t let the highlights below get you too excited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KclqlIkdIc

So Many Free Agents for Patriots in 2017

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The 2016 Patriots will largely resemble the 2015 Patriots, outside of Chandler Jones. Yes, some new faces are certain to emerge while familiar ones might go down, but for the most part the Pats have an incredible amount of continuity from last season. That always bodes well, and given the injuries we saw last season, the Patriots should be a far better team in 2016. And they’ll need to be, given their much tougher schedule.

But looking past this season, there is loads of uncertainty, with 32 players set to hit some form of free agency once the 2017 season starts.

Let’s take an in-depth look at all the decisions the Pats will have to make, because they should start acting sooner than later to prevent a mass exodus.

Patriots 2017 Salary Cap: Offense

Patriots 2017 Salary Cap

Yellow – URFA, Orange – ERFA/RFA, Blue – Rookies, Red – Injury Issue Pending

I don’t want to go back and re-hash my feelings about drafting for the future at RB and RT, but those two positions are lit up far more than I’d like. But let’s be honest, every single guy at those spots could walk and it wouldn’t be the end of the world. Vollmer’s near the end, Cannon is what he is, and none of the running backs, at least at this point, have emerged as long-term building blocks.

Really, Matthew Slater and James Develin are probably the only two real priorities. Yes, they’ll have to add personnel at RB and RT and I wish those replacements could be groomed this season (and who knows maybe they will be, like Gaffney or Waddle), but those are essentially plug and play positions.

Jonathan Cooper is in a fascinating position. He might be the most talented offensive linemen on the roster, but the competition will be stiff at guard. I could see him not making the 2016 team or being their best guard and warranting a significant extension. Impossible to predict at this point.

Sadly, Martellus Bennett will likely be a one-year rental, but we’re used to those so let’s just enjoy him while we’ve got him.

Patriots 2017 Salary Cap: Defense

Yellow - URFA, Orange - ERFA/RFA, Blue - Rookies, Red - Injury Issue Pending

Yellow – URFA, Orange – ERFA/RFA, Blue – Rookies, Red – Injury Issue Pending

Things are a little more complicated on the defensive side of the ball. Most of us feel Hightower and Collins are must re-sign players and that of this huge list of pending free agents for next season they’ll be the priorities. Let’s just assume this is true, because if even one of them leave we better be praying Shea McClellin is legit.

The bigger problem is at defensive end where the top three guys will be unrestricted free agents. Ninkovich is a big question mark given he’s 32. He’d be amenable to a team-friendly deal, but how much does he realistically have left in the tank. Sheard is in his prime, but if he hits the market there should be plenty of teams will to overpay him, especially if he lights it up as a full-time starter this season.

Long’s the wild card. I’m expecting him to really bounce back this season, but he’s just a year younger than Ninkovich. Usually guys like him who come in for one year in a pass rusher role rack up some numbers then walk. I am very curious how it plays out with Long, especially since he spent so many years on a losing team.

What the Patriots truly need is for Tre Flowers (my favorite), Geneo Grissom and/or Rufus Johnson to emerge into potential starters for 2017. At least one of them. Preferably more. But at least one. Defensive end is a critical position and there are huge question marks there beyond this season.

Finally at cornerback, the Pats are in a good spot with Malcolm Butler as a RFA, but giving him a big extension could come at the expense of Logan Ryan. But I don’t think many will be too concerned about his departure. With a number of promising young corners in the mix, Ryan might not even make it through 2016 at the top of the depth chart.

Yes, there are a ton of free agents but the Pats have just $54 million of their 2017 cap space allotted. So they’ll have plenty of room to keep who they want to keep. Of course it takes two to make a deal, but the Pats’ hands won’t be tied to at least pursue who they want with what they deem reasonable deals.

The Bill Belichick Hoodie Change

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No one was more surprised than I was when Bill Belichick changed his hoodie at halftime of the 2015 AFC Championship in Denver. As most of you know by now, I’ve carved out a little niche by tracking Belichick’s gameday attire, and never before had I noted him changing his hoodie like this.

Everyone seemed to notice this bit of minutiae, but at the time I failed to see a clear reason for the switch. But as I dug into the hoodie database a little deeper, an answer became so obvious it seemed like Belichick was digging into my hoodie stats even deeper than I myself ever had!

From Hot Jacket to Sleeved Hoodie

Belichick started the game in the 2013 “Hot” jacket, which I saw as a reasonable second choice in my hoodie prediction article. Belichick was 10-1 last season in the “Hot” jacket, including the divisional round win over the Chiefs. The only loss was the stinker in Miami, the last game of the regular season.

I thought, due to weather, a hoodie was the more likely choice, so my final prediction was the 2015 Blue Nike Hoodie. Belichick was just 1-1 in that Hoodie during the season, the best win (Giants) and the worst loss (Broncos), but it seemed to make the most realistic sense given the weather outlook. It was 46 degrees at kickoff, so it was a bit of a surprise that he stuck with the Hot jacket, that was his go-to last season so it wasn’t a total shocker.

Belichick’s switch at halftime wasn’t into that 2015 Blue Hoodie, but to a never-before-worn 2015 Gray Hoodie, with uncut sleeves. Now, this is the first I’ve mentioned sleeve cutting here. At a certain point it was cutoff sleeves that defined Belichick’s hoodie. But in truth, Belichick has been cutting off the sleeves less of late.

But this was the key finding as I searched for a statistical impetus for Belichick to change his outfit.

The problem with the Blue “Hot” Jacket (which has short sleeves of course) was that Belichick had lost to the Broncos in the 2013 AFC Championship in it. Go further back and you’ll find a number of other losses to Peyton Manning and the Broncos came when Belichick had his arms exposed.

Both 2005’s Week 6 loss and the playoff season-ender to the Broncos in Denver came in the classic Gray Reebok Hoodie with the sleeves cut off. So did 2005’s first regular season loss to Peyton and that Colts, as well as 2006’s playoff season-ender in Indy. 2009’s 4th-and-2 loss in Indy came in the Blue Reebok Hoodie, and yes, the sleeves were cut off there too.

But then you look at 2003 and 2004, the height of dominance for Belichick and the Patriots over Peyton Manning, and the first two games that jump out are the 2003 AFC Championship and the 2004 AFC Divisional Round. What’s Belichick wearing in both?

Gray Hoodies with the sleeves intact. Just like he changed into for the second half of the 2015 AFC Championship.

Now some of you might say to me, “Deuce, the weather was just getting cold and he grabbed whatever random hoodie the equipment guys packed. Your stats are stupid and he doesn’t give a shit about superstitious bs like this.”

Well, you’re probably right, but with the Patriots trailing 17-9 at halftime after a slow start, is it a coincidence that he happened to pick a the same kind of sweatshirt he hadn’t worn against Manning since the last time he ended him in the playoffs, circa January 2005, ten years ago? Probably yes. BUT MAYBE NOT!

Manning and the Broncos offense would score just three more points in the game, a performance that brought back memories of the near-total shutdown the Patriots pitched in the 2003 and 2004 playoffs against him.

Perhaps if I had broken the code of the short sleeve/long sleeve paradigm when putting my hoodie prediction together, he would’ve gone with an uncut Gray hoodie from the start and the Patriots would’ve played far better in the first half.

Overall, Belichick was 8-3 against Manning when he had full sleeves on. Of the three losses, one was 2005 in a red hoodie (eeek), another came in 2008 with Matt Cassell (doesn’t really count!!) and the final one came against the Broncos in the regular season finale of 2015. With sleeves cut or in a short sleeve against Manning, Belichick was 3-4 overall.

Yes, I blame myself and now the information about the power of full sleeves against Peyton Manning is unfortunately of no use to us.

What good is a Bill Belichick Hoodie Database if it’s not used correctly? At least we now (might) know why he went back to the trusty old gray hoodie in a time of need.

Bill Belichick Hoodie

Current stats through 2015 season.

 

Patriots Rookie Eyeball Test

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Ty Law Super BowlAlmost every year since I started blogging the Patriots I’ve done a rookie eyeball test when the rookie numbers and helmet/facemask choices were finally revealed. This is purely superficial, but as someone who was always obsessed with “look good, play good”, I find it incredibly relevant.

Some guys just don’t look the part – their number doesn’t fit their position or it’s got bad juju (like 17 on the Pats) or their helmet doesn’t fit quite right or they have an unorthodox facemask choice that doesn’t fit their position. Yes, the meaningless options are endless.

As pics started to leak out from rookie minicamp here’s a review of those I could identify from the first batch of pics that Patriots.com released today:

 

Cyrus Jones: #24

First, I love the choice of #24 and was there really any other option for Jones if he considers himself a legit professional cornerback in the National Football League? If he had turned that down for something in the thirties I’d have real concerns about Jones’ long-term viability.

As for his facemask/helmet I’m not totally feeling this right now, and it’s more the helmet because generally this facemask style is the best option for a cornerback. But he’s gone the Josh Boyce route with the helmet and it’s riding just a bit too high and tight for me to truly give him an elite cornerback look grade. I’m worried a stiff arm to the facemask will break his face.

Ty Law, a seen above in SB36, is of course the ideal.

Grade: A-


Malcolm Mitchell #19

I was hoping for #81 with Mitchell but am fine with the consolation choice of #19, which was my own number in high school (hockey, but still). As for the helmet, I’m a little deer-in-headlights at the moment because he looks so friggin’ much like Aaron Dobson.

Though these new helmets are safer and seem to have good range of vision, I just can’t give a receiver an elite grade when they’re wearing this. While his college look was similar, it had some extra bars that took the Dobson feel of it all out of the equation. Maybe we can talk him into going back to that? There’s still plenty of time for a change.

Still, dude looks pretty solid and I’m excited to see what he can do.

Grade: B

 

Jacoby Brissett #7

Was hoping Brissett might go with #9 but #7 will do, it’s sure better than #13 or, Hoodie forbid, #1. This was the same helmet/facemask combination that he went with in college and I’m a little more accepting of this style for a QB than I am for a receiver like Mitchell.

Of course, in a perfect world he’d go with the Brady look, the queen mother of quarterback helmet/facemask looks, but I think the young guys might be scared off of that helmet because concussions or something.

Brady is the standard-bearer for all-time QB looks, not only with his number 12, but with the perfect loose-fitting helmet. That’s probably my biggest problem with bad helmet looks, when they’re too tight and ride too high on their head. Brissett looks pretty good here without much rookie high-hat.

Not perfect, but I’m intrigued.

Grade: A-

 

Joe Thuney #62

Hey look, it’s Ryan Wendell. Just kidding, it’s everyone’s favorite new genius offensive linemen Joe Thuney. Okay, nothing against Thuney here but I’m not feeling this facemask for an offensive lineman, like at all. It’s too short. You’re gonna get popped in the chin, bro.

Logan Mankins is my standard-bearer for interior offensive linemen looks. And if we’re really getting picky I’d far prefer the old Matt Light/Dan Koppen look more than anything. There’s just nothing to get excited about here, not the number nor the questionable choice in facemask. Thuney has work to do to crawl out of the boring, average look category. I’m sure he cares very much about this and will respond accordingly.

Grade: C

 

Not Ted Karras #64

Saving Thuney is Not Ted Karras, who I thought was Ted Karras before getting corrected because most of the rookies haven’t been officially designated on Patriots.com yet and apparently this guy’s got a tattoo that Karras doesn’t have so here we are.

But it doesn’t really matter, whoever this guy is it’s not what I’m looking for. Now body-wise there’s a lot to like about Not Karras but WHAT. IS. THIS. FACEMASK? No no no no. This cannot stand.

A couple years ago Brandon Bolden tried to rock one of these weird new facemasks and I haven’t forgiven him since even though he abandoned it. Not Karras is probably some guy in for a tryout that we don’t know and probably never will.

Grade: D