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Patriots 2016 Preview: Offense Overview

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Back in the blogging saddle after a week of vacation and it’s hard to believe that another Patriots training camp is right around the corner. Over the next few weeks I’ll be posting some excerpts from my Patriots 2016 Preview book, which you can buy in its entirety here for just $4.

To kick things off here’s a quick look back at the 2015 offense and a look ahead at how things are shaping up for 2016.

2015 Offensive Statistical Rankings

  • Overall DVOA – 5th
  • Passing DVOA – 4th
  • Running DVOA – 12th
  • Yards-per-Game – 6th (374.4)
  • Points-per-Game – 3rd (29.1)
  • Third Down – 11th (41 percent)
  • Fourth Down –  t-4th (60 percent)

The Patriots were once again one of the best offenses in the NFL, looking almost as unstoppable as they were in 2007 through the first four weeks of the 2015 season. Then came the early bye week and the injury apocalypse commenced.

One stat that can define the 2015 season came on third down. Without Julian Edelman in the lineup, the Patriots third-down conversion percentage dropped by 16.1 percent, while Brady’s overall completion percentage dropped from 69.0 percent to 59.2 percent.

Edelman’s importance, or more specifically, a reliable Z-receiver who can get open quickly, is so vital to the Patriots offense. Developing depth around and in back of Edelman will be a big key for this season.

Meanwhile, the running game devolved to the point where the Pats put up just 44 yards on 17 carries in the AFC Championship. Tom Brady led the team in rushing with 13 yards. Yikes.

For the season the Pats ground “attack” was 29th in yards-per-attempt, 25th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards.

This follows a two-year downward trend by the ground game where they’ve ranked 14th and 12th respectively in DVOA.. The last time they were out of the top-10 was 2005.

Other than adding veteran Donald Brown, the team essentially stayed pat with their running backs. The hope has to be that Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount return from injury and hopefully Brown or Tyler Gaffney can contribute. But that seems like a risky plan, relying on the injured and unproven.

The NFL is a passing league and as defenses get lighter and faster to defend the pass it’s a matter of time before power running offenses re-emerge. The Patriots have plenty of size up front, even if their collection of running backs seem far more geared toward the passing game.

Fullback James Develin will be back, and the offensive line should be better at opening holes, but the most exciting addition is tight end Martellus Bennett.

Never before have the Patriots had two dominant Y tight ends who can both block and catch, and that’s what they have in Bennett and Gronk.

Together, they should re-define the Patriots’ offense.

The other key personnel shift will occur at X-receiver where Brandon LaFell was released this offseason. Chris Hogan of the Bills was given the most lucrative free agent contract of the offseason and projects into the X-receiver role. He had a positive showing in minicamp.

Hogan was known as “7-11” during his rookie year on HBO’s Hard Knocks with the Dolphins because he was always open. He hasn’t played with a quarterback like Tom Brady before of course, and if he’s truly always open, he’ll see plenty of balls thrown his way. Earning Brady’s trust in the offseason is the biggest key for Hogan, but he can do everything the Pats ask of their split ends.

The running back spot is a significant area of concern, especially with their two biggest key players coming off significant injuries. But the addition of Bennett and Hogan, along with the return of Dante Scarnecchia to help get the entire offensive line back on track should mean great things once again for the Patriots offense in 2016.

PatsPropaganda 2016 Patriots Season Preview Book

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Taking a little vacation this week as obviously it’s the deadest of the deadest period of the offseason. But it’s also the perfect time to catch up on anything you might’ve missed this offseason and get some in-depth analysis of what’s to come in training camp and in the 2016 season. My season preview book is packed full of information and stats, and for just $4 I promise you won’t be disappointed.

Will Malcolm Butler Break the Patriots’ Corner Philosophy?

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<a rel=Here in the dead of the offseason I’ve been pondering the upcoming contract situations for various Patriots players in the next couple of years. Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower are the first priorities, with Jabaal Sheard garnering plenty of consideration himself. And those three are just the top of the list, the Pats will be hitting the reset button in a number of areas this coming offseason.

But most interesting to me is Malcolm Butler’s situation. With his strange absence from early OTA practices that he deemed a “misunderstanding,” while the media thought it was because he was unhappy with his pay, it seems like things could get interesting sooner than later.

What troubles me was looking back at this article I wrote last season about how the Patriots just didn’t give lucrative long-term deals to cornerbacks. They’ll be fine paying a big sum of money for a season like they did with Asante Samuel and Darrelle Revis, but they’ve never broken the bank for cornerbacks.

History Not on Butler’s Side

The Pats are in the driver’s seat through next season, when Butler hits restricted free agency. They can hit him with a first round tender and Butler will either have to find a team willing to give up a first round pick for him or play for the Patriots at a ballpark salary of $3.7 million. For a guy making $600k this season, that’s a pretty good bump.

But after 2017 is when things get interesting. Given the Pats’ history it would make sense to think the team will hit Butler with the franchise tag, let him play the season out and then let him walk. Yes, that seems like an abrupt end for a Super Bowl hero and the most promising cornerback since Ty Law, but if the Pats played hard ball with Law, there’s little reason to doubt they’ll play hard ball with Butler.

Age is a slight difference in this situation though, as Butler would turn 28 at the start of the 2018 league season. When the Pats were negotiating a new deal for Law he was already at the dreaded 30. Here’s some insight from last year’s piece about how those negotiations went:

In 2004, Law wanted another extension and the Patriots offered him $26 million over four years. Even today that would be the biggest contract extension the Patriots ever awarded to a corner. , including a $20 million signing bonus. Then-general manager Scott Pioli simply responded

The scariest precedent is Asante Samuel, who led the league in interceptions in the final year of his rookie deal in 2006. Instead of giving the promising young corner a long term deal, the Pats hit him with the franchise tag in 2007 for $7.79 million then let him go to the Eagles the next offseason on a six-year, $56 million deal.

Butler Break the Mold?

But maybe Butler is different. He’s certainly a better fit for the Patriots now than Samuel was because of his ability to play man coverage and fearless run support. But with so many other players to pay over the next couple seasons and a number of other promising young man-coverage cornerbacks in the pipeline, the team might once again be forced to let a talented player leave.

Things could come to a head sooner if Butler doesn’t feel like waiting for this scenario to unfold. If he were to hold out would the Patriots give him a raise like they did with Richard Seymour? Seymour proved that playing hardball with the Pats can sometimes work out. But defensive end is a different position and one that the Patriots seem to value more than cornerback.

If Butler isn’t careful he could instead end up like Deion Branch in 2006 — shipped out of town.

This will be one of the more fascinating scenarios to play out over the next couple years.  Is Butler really special? Has the way the Patriots view cornerbacks changed? Or will he just be the latest one to have every ounce of value squeezed out of him before cashing in with a huge deal from another team?

 

5 Questions for the 2016 Patriots

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With the conclusion of OTAs, the New England Patriots will no hit a brief summer break before the start of training camp in late July. There’s been plenty of moves this offseason that should make the 2016 version of the team a unique flavor, and while there’s plenty to be excited about, there are still a number of questions that face the team.

Here are the things that I’ll be most curious to watch once training camp opens and the 2016 season gets underway.

  1. 2016 Patriots QuestionsRunning Back Plan — At the start of the offseason I felt like it was time for the Patriots to re-commit to their ground game a bit. It’s been well documented how much the Pats struggled to move the ball on the ground once Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount were lost for the season. But the Patriots did barely anything at the position — signing Donald Brown and undrafted rookie D.J. Foster was it. Neither of those players are even locks to make the roster. So what now? Assume Lewis and Blount return and stay healthy all year? Believe James White will earn the coaching staff’s trust to carry the ball? That Tyler Gaffney can stay healthy and contribute? Those are big questions and nothing leaves us feeling confident that the Patriots will have a running game resurgence unless Lewis comes back in the same form he left and plays the entire season. Perhaps the offensive line will be better and it won’t really matter who’s carrying the ball. Still, it tough to see how it will play out and another injury to Lewis or Blount would be devastating.
  2. Tom Brady Suspension — Of course this one’s a headline but really, in the grand scheme of the season, I don’t think whether or not Brady sits the first four games will have a huge impact overall. That’s assuming that Garoppolo would at least lead the team to a 2-2 record which seems manageable considering the opponents, veteran Patriots defense and weaponry around him. The problem could be a lack of running game in those early weeks. Being one dimensional with Tom Brady is one thing, but with Garoppolo it could be hairy.
  3. Defensive Scheme Tweaks — The two interesting twists from minicamp was Shea McClellin playing defensive end instead of middle linebacker and Rob Ninkovich playing middle linebacker instead of defensive end. I still believe that these are not major position switches, rather a chance to see what Ninkovich can do at a spot where depth is limited, and that we’ll still see McClellin in a linebacker role more often than with his hand on ground. But this does point to some more front seven versatility. We’ve already seen Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins playing all around the front and now it would seem the team is preparing to be even more fluid with where they can align everyone.
  4. Offensive Line Coming Together — There’s going to be some great competition along the offensive line in training camp and we didn’t really get much of a glimpse of it in minicamp with so many players still out, including Solder, Vollmer, Kline, Jackson and, for most of the practices, Mason. This left a starting offensive line of Waddle–Thuney–Stork/Andrews–Cooper–Cannon. Stork and Andrews should be a tight battle at center with the loser possibly ending up on the street. Does Cannon’s salary make him a potential camp casualty? Jackson and Mason had promising moments as rookies, how will they progress under Dante Scarnecchia? Is Joe Thuney better than both of them? Can Cooper re-find his elite talent level that made him a top-10 pick? Can Vollmer and Solder get (and stay) healthy)? So many questions at such an important position grouping.
  5. Health — Every year at the start  of camp the dreaded PUP list comes out for those not fully recovered yet. The list of integral Patriots who weren’t able to go in the spring is long and there’s no guarantee who will be back and ready to go in six weeks. If guys like Edelman, Amendola or the significant offensive linemen are still recovering it will open up opportunities for other players, but could also adversely affect how good the team will be in September. It’s important to take the long view and having guys in January is much more important, but who knows what kind of injury management will be happening through camp.

Tweets of Note from Monday Patriots OTA

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Today was the final OTA practice open to the media, so it’s the last time we’ll see the Patriots on the field until training camp, just over a month away. Two big headlines from today was the return of three players — Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis and Shaq Mason.

Not sure what was going on with Gronkowski and why he was missing from mandatory minicamp last week, but it doesn’t seem like anything too serious. The horrible media pundits can go back to trying fabricate the “Gronk’s unhappy with his contract” hot take they all seem so obsessed with.

Lewis’ return is excellent news, and brings back memories of Wes Welker returning to OTAs during the 2010 offseason, just five months removed from tearing his ACL. Welker was ready to go in Week 1 of the 2010 season but the Patriots still managed his snaps early in the year and I’d expect the same of Lewis. But the fact that he was on the field, running and cutting, is a good one no matter how you spin it.

Here are some more tweets of note:

Jones is a popular pick for this year’s UDFA to make the roster. I’ll be very curious to see how he compares to Darryl Roberts. Those two could be fighting for the last CB roster spot.

 

 

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Pats Posits: Patriots Minicamp Wrap

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I’m back in the blogging saddle after a few days on Cape Cod celebrating the life of my 90-year old grandma who passed away. Looks like there was plenty I missed from Patriots minicamp, but the good news is that there’s plenty of time to catch up.

Here are a bunch of quick-hit posits about the reports from those who were there watching the action:

— Yes, Aaron Dobson led the team in catches over the three-day period and was saying all the right things in interviews, knowing that the biggest thing for him is stay healthy. This isn’t the first time Dobson has impressed when everyone’s in shorts, so I’m not quite ready to start believing he’s going to suddenly break out in his fourth year. He did show some promise as a rookie, but since then I’ve seen little development from Dobson when everyone has pads on. The biggest problem I have is his inability to make plays with the balls in his hands. Go back and look at any of his catches the last two seasons and I’ll guarantee he falls down right after catching just about every single one. He also seems to always be double catching the ball, often with his arms. Maybe he’ll turn a corner on those things, but until I see him streaking down the field after making a clean catch, dodging would-be tacklers and picking up extra yards, I continue to view Dobson as a long-shot unless Edelman and Amendola are PUP candidates to start the season.

— Maybe the most interesting news to me was that Rob Ninkovich was playing middle linebacker, however I think this is purely a depth move, giving Ninkovich some experience in the spot should he ever be needed because let’s face it, Jonathan Freeny was a liability at MLB last year. The other interesting related aspect to this is Shea McClellin playing with the defensive ends. Since he’s new to the system I don’t think this a depth move. He needs to learn the defense first. But with Ninkovich he can play defensive end for the Pats’ system in his sleep. This does however raise a question of what the Pats “regular” four defensive back package looks like up front, especially at the MLB spot. Still haven’t totally ruled out that McClellin, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are all chess pieces in regular with no set formation for offenses to key on.

— DJ Foster tweaked a hamstring during camp, but he stood out once again as being the most explosive running back on the field. Makes you wonder how the Dion Lewis (recovering from an ACL tear), James White and Foster can all fit together, and why Belichick seems far more interested in small receiving backs than early-down pounders. Perhaps it relates to the pure size the Patriots offensive front can put on the field — if you have a true Double Y tight end offense with Gronk and Bennett, along with James Develin, the holes should be there, no matter how big the running backs are. Again, all I don’t want to see is for the Pats to be a purely passing team at the end of the season like they were last year. Injuries played a huge role in that of course, but I’m curious how it will all fit together this year.


— Malcolm Mitchell is also off to a good start, a huge plus for a rookie wide receiver even if he’s had limited snaps with Brady. The biggest thing is for him to stay healthy in these early days. So many of the rookie wide receivers that have failed to click with Brady were hit with injuries in their first training camp and/or regular season. If Mitchell can avoid the injury bug this first year, his odds of carving out a role in the offense increase.

— Michael Williams tore his ACL in camp, luckily the only major injury. I had Williams on the bubble, trending toward not making the roster so I don’t think this opens up an unexpected spot on the 53-man roster. But it should mean more reps for guys like Clay Harbor and AJ Derby.

— Kamu Grugier-Hill popped up with an interception. Anytime you’re hearing any rookie’s name it’s a positive sign, even in a teaching camp like this where the rooks haven’t really been thrown to the wolves yet. I like Grugier-Hills to slip into Tavon Wilson‘s old roster spot/special teams role. I don’t like typing “Grugier-Hill”.

— All three quarterbacks impressed and that’s a good thing to see, especially with the improvement that Jacoby Brissett already showing at this early stage.

— Thought this nugget from Andy Hart was interesting:

At the end of every practice, when the team gathers to stretch in position groups, Dante Scarnecchia has returned to his tradition of making his linemen line their helmets perfectly straight on a yard line. He checks it and players have to fix any imperfections, as Marcus Cannon had to today, before they get to their stretching.

— Finally, I must leave you with this…

Boston Herald/Howe – 5 questions for Patriots minicamp

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The Patriots open their mandatory three-day minicamp Tuesday at Gillette Stadium.

Source: 5 questions for Patriots minicamp | Boston Herald

Good read here from Jeff Howe, breaking down some of the specifics to look for over the next three days. But let’s be honest, it’s really just like we’re spinning our wheels because there won’t be anything monumental to take away from mini-camp. Maybe someone like Dion Lewis is out there, and that’d be a great sign that his knee is returning to healthy, but otherwise everyone is there to learn not compete for a job just yet.

I will be curious to see if we can decipher who’s playing receiver along with Chris Hogan, since Edelman and Amendola are probably sitting. Keyshawn Martin probably makes the most sense. But there will be plenty of rotation and with Brady’s possible suspension, things will be even more mixed up that usual. I also wonder at what point do the Pats start managing Brady’s throws moreso anyway. His arm showed no signs of slowing down at the end of last year, but it’s something to think about.

This will be the last time we see the boys on the field before the long break until training camp opens at the end of July. Yes, it’s the final push of the offseason, but make no mistake, football is coming.