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Will Malcolm Butler Break the Patriots’ Corner Philosophy?

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<a rel=Here in the dead of the offseason I’ve been pondering the upcoming contract situations for various Patriots players in the next couple of years. Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower are the first priorities, with Jabaal Sheard garnering plenty of consideration himself. And those three are just the top of the list, the Pats will be hitting the reset button in a number of areas this coming offseason.

But most interesting to me is Malcolm Butler’s situation. With his strange absence from early OTA practices that he deemed a “misunderstanding,” while the media thought it was because he was unhappy with his pay, it seems like things could get interesting sooner than later.

What troubles me was looking back at this article I wrote last season about how the Patriots just didn’t give lucrative long-term deals to cornerbacks. They’ll be fine paying a big sum of money for a season like they did with Asante Samuel and Darrelle Revis, but they’ve never broken the bank for cornerbacks.

History Not on Butler’s Side

The Pats are in the driver’s seat through next season, when Butler hits restricted free agency. They can hit him with a first round tender and Butler will either have to find a team willing to give up a first round pick for him or play for the Patriots at a ballpark salary of $3.7 million. For a guy making $600k this season, that’s a pretty good bump.

But after 2017 is when things get interesting. Given the Pats’ history it would make sense to think the team will hit Butler with the franchise tag, let him play the season out and then let him walk. Yes, that seems like an abrupt end for a Super Bowl hero and the most promising cornerback since Ty Law, but if the Pats played hard ball with Law, there’s little reason to doubt they’ll play hard ball with Butler.

Age is a slight difference in this situation though, as Butler would turn 28 at the start of the 2018 league season. When the Pats were negotiating a new deal for Law he was already at the dreaded 30. Here’s some insight from last year’s piece about how those negotiations went:

In 2004, Law wanted another extension and the Patriots offered him $26 million over four years. Even today that would be the biggest contract extension the Patriots ever awarded to a corner. , including a $20 million signing bonus. Then-general manager Scott Pioli simply responded

The scariest precedent is Asante Samuel, who led the league in interceptions in the final year of his rookie deal in 2006. Instead of giving the promising young corner a long term deal, the Pats hit him with the franchise tag in 2007 for $7.79 million then let him go to the Eagles the next offseason on a six-year, $56 million deal.

Butler Break the Mold?

But maybe Butler is different. He’s certainly a better fit for the Patriots now than Samuel was because of his ability to play man coverage and fearless run support. But with so many other players to pay over the next couple seasons and a number of other promising young man-coverage cornerbacks in the pipeline, the team might once again be forced to let a talented player leave.

Things could come to a head sooner if Butler doesn’t feel like waiting for this scenario to unfold. If he were to hold out would the Patriots give him a raise like they did with Richard Seymour? Seymour proved that playing hardball with the Pats can sometimes work out. But defensive end is a different position and one that the Patriots seem to value more than cornerback.

If Butler isn’t careful he could instead end up like Deion Branch in 2006 — shipped out of town.

This will be one of the more fascinating scenarios to play out over the next couple years.  Is Butler really special? Has the way the Patriots view cornerbacks changed? Or will he just be the latest one to have every ounce of value squeezed out of him before cashing in with a huge deal from another team?

 

5 Questions for the 2016 Patriots

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With the conclusion of OTAs, the New England Patriots will no hit a brief summer break before the start of training camp in late July. There’s been plenty of moves this offseason that should make the 2016 version of the team a unique flavor, and while there’s plenty to be excited about, there are still a number of questions that face the team.

Here are the things that I’ll be most curious to watch once training camp opens and the 2016 season gets underway.

  1. 2016 Patriots QuestionsRunning Back Plan — At the start of the offseason I felt like it was time for the Patriots to re-commit to their ground game a bit. It’s been well documented how much the Pats struggled to move the ball on the ground once Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount were lost for the season. But the Patriots did barely anything at the position — signing Donald Brown and undrafted rookie D.J. Foster was it. Neither of those players are even locks to make the roster. So what now? Assume Lewis and Blount return and stay healthy all year? Believe James White will earn the coaching staff’s trust to carry the ball? That Tyler Gaffney can stay healthy and contribute? Those are big questions and nothing leaves us feeling confident that the Patriots will have a running game resurgence unless Lewis comes back in the same form he left and plays the entire season. Perhaps the offensive line will be better and it won’t really matter who’s carrying the ball. Still, it tough to see how it will play out and another injury to Lewis or Blount would be devastating.
  2. Tom Brady Suspension — Of course this one’s a headline but really, in the grand scheme of the season, I don’t think whether or not Brady sits the first four games will have a huge impact overall. That’s assuming that Garoppolo would at least lead the team to a 2-2 record which seems manageable considering the opponents, veteran Patriots defense and weaponry around him. The problem could be a lack of running game in those early weeks. Being one dimensional with Tom Brady is one thing, but with Garoppolo it could be hairy.
  3. Defensive Scheme Tweaks — The two interesting twists from minicamp was Shea McClellin playing defensive end instead of middle linebacker and Rob Ninkovich playing middle linebacker instead of defensive end. I still believe that these are not major position switches, rather a chance to see what Ninkovich can do at a spot where depth is limited, and that we’ll still see McClellin in a linebacker role more often than with his hand on ground. But this does point to some more front seven versatility. We’ve already seen Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins playing all around the front and now it would seem the team is preparing to be even more fluid with where they can align everyone.
  4. Offensive Line Coming Together — There’s going to be some great competition along the offensive line in training camp and we didn’t really get much of a glimpse of it in minicamp with so many players still out, including Solder, Vollmer, Kline, Jackson and, for most of the practices, Mason. This left a starting offensive line of Waddle–Thuney–Stork/Andrews–Cooper–Cannon. Stork and Andrews should be a tight battle at center with the loser possibly ending up on the street. Does Cannon’s salary make him a potential camp casualty? Jackson and Mason had promising moments as rookies, how will they progress under Dante Scarnecchia? Is Joe Thuney better than both of them? Can Cooper re-find his elite talent level that made him a top-10 pick? Can Vollmer and Solder get (and stay) healthy)? So many questions at such an important position grouping.
  5. Health — Every year at the start  of camp the dreaded PUP list comes out for those not fully recovered yet. The list of integral Patriots who weren’t able to go in the spring is long and there’s no guarantee who will be back and ready to go in six weeks. If guys like Edelman, Amendola or the significant offensive linemen are still recovering it will open up opportunities for other players, but could also adversely affect how good the team will be in September. It’s important to take the long view and having guys in January is much more important, but who knows what kind of injury management will be happening through camp.

Tweets of Note from Monday Patriots OTA

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Today was the final OTA practice open to the media, so it’s the last time we’ll see the Patriots on the field until training camp, just over a month away. Two big headlines from today was the return of three players — Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis and Shaq Mason.

Not sure what was going on with Gronkowski and why he was missing from mandatory minicamp last week, but it doesn’t seem like anything too serious. The horrible media pundits can go back to trying fabricate the “Gronk’s unhappy with his contract” hot take they all seem so obsessed with.

Lewis’ return is excellent news, and brings back memories of Wes Welker returning to OTAs during the 2010 offseason, just five months removed from tearing his ACL. Welker was ready to go in Week 1 of the 2010 season but the Patriots still managed his snaps early in the year and I’d expect the same of Lewis. But the fact that he was on the field, running and cutting, is a good one no matter how you spin it.

Here are some more tweets of note:

Jones is a popular pick for this year’s UDFA to make the roster. I’ll be very curious to see how he compares to Darryl Roberts. Those two could be fighting for the last CB roster spot.

 

 

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Pats Posits: Patriots Minicamp Wrap

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I’m back in the blogging saddle after a few days on Cape Cod celebrating the life of my 90-year old grandma who passed away. Looks like there was plenty I missed from Patriots minicamp, but the good news is that there’s plenty of time to catch up.

Here are a bunch of quick-hit posits about the reports from those who were there watching the action:

— Yes, Aaron Dobson led the team in catches over the three-day period and was saying all the right things in interviews, knowing that the biggest thing for him is stay healthy. This isn’t the first time Dobson has impressed when everyone’s in shorts, so I’m not quite ready to start believing he’s going to suddenly break out in his fourth year. He did show some promise as a rookie, but since then I’ve seen little development from Dobson when everyone has pads on. The biggest problem I have is his inability to make plays with the balls in his hands. Go back and look at any of his catches the last two seasons and I’ll guarantee he falls down right after catching just about every single one. He also seems to always be double catching the ball, often with his arms. Maybe he’ll turn a corner on those things, but until I see him streaking down the field after making a clean catch, dodging would-be tacklers and picking up extra yards, I continue to view Dobson as a long-shot unless Edelman and Amendola are PUP candidates to start the season.

— Maybe the most interesting news to me was that Rob Ninkovich was playing middle linebacker, however I think this is purely a depth move, giving Ninkovich some experience in the spot should he ever be needed because let’s face it, Jonathan Freeny was a liability at MLB last year. The other interesting related aspect to this is Shea McClellin playing with the defensive ends. Since he’s new to the system I don’t think this a depth move. He needs to learn the defense first. But with Ninkovich he can play defensive end for the Pats’ system in his sleep. This does however raise a question of what the Pats “regular” four defensive back package looks like up front, especially at the MLB spot. Still haven’t totally ruled out that McClellin, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are all chess pieces in regular with no set formation for offenses to key on.

— DJ Foster tweaked a hamstring during camp, but he stood out once again as being the most explosive running back on the field. Makes you wonder how the Dion Lewis (recovering from an ACL tear), James White and Foster can all fit together, and why Belichick seems far more interested in small receiving backs than early-down pounders. Perhaps it relates to the pure size the Patriots offensive front can put on the field — if you have a true Double Y tight end offense with Gronk and Bennett, along with James Develin, the holes should be there, no matter how big the running backs are. Again, all I don’t want to see is for the Pats to be a purely passing team at the end of the season like they were last year. Injuries played a huge role in that of course, but I’m curious how it will all fit together this year.


— Malcolm Mitchell is also off to a good start, a huge plus for a rookie wide receiver even if he’s had limited snaps with Brady. The biggest thing is for him to stay healthy in these early days. So many of the rookie wide receivers that have failed to click with Brady were hit with injuries in their first training camp and/or regular season. If Mitchell can avoid the injury bug this first year, his odds of carving out a role in the offense increase.

— Michael Williams tore his ACL in camp, luckily the only major injury. I had Williams on the bubble, trending toward not making the roster so I don’t think this opens up an unexpected spot on the 53-man roster. But it should mean more reps for guys like Clay Harbor and AJ Derby.

— Kamu Grugier-Hill popped up with an interception. Anytime you’re hearing any rookie’s name it’s a positive sign, even in a teaching camp like this where the rooks haven’t really been thrown to the wolves yet. I like Grugier-Hills to slip into Tavon Wilson‘s old roster spot/special teams role. I don’t like typing “Grugier-Hill”.

— All three quarterbacks impressed and that’s a good thing to see, especially with the improvement that Jacoby Brissett already showing at this early stage.

— Thought this nugget from Andy Hart was interesting:

At the end of every practice, when the team gathers to stretch in position groups, Dante Scarnecchia has returned to his tradition of making his linemen line their helmets perfectly straight on a yard line. He checks it and players have to fix any imperfections, as Marcus Cannon had to today, before they get to their stretching.

— Finally, I must leave you with this…

Boston Herald/Howe – 5 questions for Patriots minicamp

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The Patriots open their mandatory three-day minicamp Tuesday at Gillette Stadium.

Source: 5 questions for Patriots minicamp | Boston Herald

Good read here from Jeff Howe, breaking down some of the specifics to look for over the next three days. But let’s be honest, it’s really just like we’re spinning our wheels because there won’t be anything monumental to take away from mini-camp. Maybe someone like Dion Lewis is out there, and that’d be a great sign that his knee is returning to healthy, but otherwise everyone is there to learn not compete for a job just yet.

I will be curious to see if we can decipher who’s playing receiver along with Chris Hogan, since Edelman and Amendola are probably sitting. Keyshawn Martin probably makes the most sense. But there will be plenty of rotation and with Brady’s possible suspension, things will be even more mixed up that usual. I also wonder at what point do the Pats start managing Brady’s throws moreso anyway. His arm showed no signs of slowing down at the end of last year, but it’s something to think about.

This will be the last time we see the boys on the field before the long break until training camp opens at the end of July. Yes, it’s the final push of the offseason, but make no mistake, football is coming.

Is James White on the roster bubble?

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One thing I love nothing more than is debating ProFootballFocus ratings and yesterday they dropped this little nugget about James White.

White was thrown into the first last year in his second season when Dion Lewis went down, but while you might think he simply took over Lewis’ extensive role, he was actually managed far more delicately. The week after Lewis was lost for the season White had just one catch on one target and one carry. The next week, three targets, and the following week five targets.

His breakout game came in the fourth week against the Eagles, where he had 10 catches on 13 targets for 115 yards, but that was the high-water mark of the season. And while he slowly became a factor in the passing game the Patriots never handed the ball off to him more than three times in a game during the regular season. In the AFC Championship they handed it off to him five times and he picked up a measly 11 yards.

More troubling, and this is a stat I’ve hit on far more than I’d like this offseason, was White’s performance in the passing game in that AFC Championship, where he was targeted a team-high 16 times and came up with just five catches for 45 yards, the most devastating of which is GIF’d below. A touchdown here could’ve been the difference in the game.

James White

 

For the season White ended up with 40 catches for 410 yards and four touchdowns, but just 22 rushing attempts for 56 yards. It’s painfully obvious how one-dimensional he was. The bigger problem is how much of a key White will be every time he takes the field. Is he a good receiver? Sure. Is he good enough to change the course of a game as a pure receiving back? Nope.

That’s why I am putting White on the bubble. Despite White’s place on the roster it didn’t stop the Patriots from looking at receiving backs this offseason, including Bilal Powell, and signing undrafted rookie DJ Foster, who seems on paper very much like White as well.

It might be too late to give up on White, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have to earn a job this summer and prove that he’s more capable of running the ball than he appeared to be last year.

Dez Bryant recovery timeline may not bode well for Julian Edelman – CSNNE/Curran

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It took Bryant five months to get clearance to merely run and cut. If it takes five months for Edelman and his left foot to be cleared, that would put his timeline to begin doing the same things in mid-September.Obviously, everyone heals at different rates and one must allow for differences between the procedures the two players had done. And sources have expressed confidence that Edelman will be ready for training camp.

Source: Dez Bryant recovery timeline may not bode well for Julian Edelman

It’s pretty amazing how fast a player goes from a JAG to indispensable. Not to say Edelman was necessarily just a guy, but in his first four years with the Pats he had just four touchdowns and 69 catches. In the Pats 2011 AFC Championship season he had just four catches, and that was his third year in the league, a time when you’d think a receiver of Edelman’s current status would’ve been starting to hit his stride.

Now you read a report like the one above and you wonder what the Patriots would possibly do if Edelman misses extended time once again this season. The numbers for the Patriots’ offense without Edelman were ugly, especially on third down where their conversion rate dropped almost 20 percent.

Now at this point it still sounds like everyone’s expecting Edelman to be ready to go for training camp, but this speaks to a couple larger points.

First, the Pats must continue to develop wide receivers of all kinds. Everyone talks about needing the proverbial deep threat, but it’s just as important at this point to continue stockpiling “quick open” Z-receiver types as well. Malcolm Mitchell and Devin Lucien will be guys to watch this summer, as will Chris Hogan.

Second, the Z-receiver spot in the Pats’ offense isn’t exactly plug-and-play but it’s pretty close. It may take a bit for a receiver to totally earn Brady’s trust, but once they do, they’re going to see plenty of targets.

So I’d preach patience this summer with the likes of Mitchell and Lucien, as well as Chris Harper, DeAndre Carter and Keshawn Martin. They might need to heavily rely on those guys sooner than we think.