PatsPropaganda

Last week we took a look at the Patriots defense on third downs in the playoffs versus the Jets. Today we take a look at the offensive third downs.

The Pats were 5/14 on 3rd down (35%) which shows how well the Jets defense played. The range of third down percentages run from 30% (excellent) to 50% (craptastic). If you’re holding opponents to 30% on 3rd down you have a dominant defense and you’re going to win a lot of games. The Jets converted 46% against the Pats, which was about the Pats defenses average for the season.

Before we get into the video and analysis let’s take a quick look at a couple articles that came out today that provide some good insight into what we’re about to talk about.

First, from Pat Kirwan, comes the examination of spread offenses in the modern NFL. The most interesting nugget to me is that the Jets bring pressure on a whopping 80% of third downs. The next closest team is the Cardinals at 56%.

To counter pressure more and more teams are going to an empty backfield set. This forces teams to show their hand and tell who’s coming and who’s dropping. The Patriots were the number one ranked team when going with the empty set according to Football Outsiders. So clearly something had to give.

Here’s the first half…

1st Q, 10:02, 0-0, 3rd & 4 on Jets 47.

Pats: Shotgun, 1 RB, Trips Right, Gronk left. Jets: Rush 4. Gronk delays like the Pats are in max protect, then releases to the flat, Brady hits him for the first down. Jason Taylor faked blitz, dropped into coverage on Gronk but was not able to make the play.

1st Q, 1:44, 0-0, 3rd & 5 on Jets 7.

Pats: 1RB, 3WR/Hernando. Jets: Rush 3. Crumpler’s dropped TD the play before really hurt. Jets dropped 8 guys along the goaline leaving Brady with nowhere to go. Coverage sack by Shaun Ellis. Looks like Brady wanted Hernando, Branch gets open just as Brady goes down. Also some slight Cromartie PI on Tate in End Zone, but shouldn’t have been called in a playoff game.

2nd Q, 12:53, 3-0, 3rd & 5 on Pats 25.

Pats: 1 RB, 2 TE (Gronk split left), 2 WR. Jets: Rush 4.  Drew Coleman comes off the left side unblocked, sacks Brady. I’m not a protection expert but it looks to me like the protection should’ve slid left here as Light is occupied with Jason Taylor and Vollmer is blocking no one. Mankins, Connolly, Koppen, and eventually Vollmer are blocking just two guys. If protection was there guys were open, especially Gronk. He would still be running.

2nd Q, 9:00, 7-3 Jets, 3rd & 2 on Pats 34.

Pats: empty set, Woodhead flexed out right. 6 man protection, Gronk staying in. Jets rush 4. Brady has Woodhead and Hernando open but Brady looks both of them off, then scrambles, throws a shitty pass behind Gronk. Check the footage of open Woody and Hernando at 6:35. Frustration starting to set in for TFB?

2nd Q, 2:39, 7-3 Jets, 3rd & 1 on Pats 29.

Pats: power I left. Jets: 4 down lineman. Brady QB sneak successful behind Mankins. Nothing that interesting to see here, just the first 3rd down conversion for the Pats since 10:02 of the first quarter.

2Q, 1:19, 7-3 Jets, 3rd & 4 on Pats 38.

Pats: shotgun, Woodhead in backfield, Gronk on line, Welker/Tate right, Branch left. Jets: rush 4. Looks like miscommunication b/t Brady and Gronk. Brady threw the out, Gronk ran the out and up. Welker was wide open as well.

(8:45 – watch Revis’ coverage on Branch. Don’t have to like the guy but damn he’s a good corner)

First half summary

The Pats were pretty much unstoppable the first two possessions of the game. First quarter looked great despite Brady’s interception which was just an overthrow. However as we got into the second quarter it was clear that the offense went out of sync. Brady was missing open guys, there were protection issues, and the receivers were not on the same page as Brady. We also did not see much pressure from the Jets at all, which is crazy when you consider that they were sending blitzers 80% of the time on 3rd down during the regular season.

If we’re heading to locker room at the half I’m assuming the Jets will continue to only rush 3 or 4 guys. Adjustments had to be made to combat that because Brady clearly did not look comfortable when the Jets flooded 8 guys into pass coverage.

Clearly when Rex Ryan and the Jets said they knew how to defeat the Patriots horizontal passing attack it was primarily about flooding the short zones.

What adjustments would both teams make? Find out in part two..