PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Football Outsiders: Patriots up two spots to 3rd Overall in DVOA

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Football Outsiders: Patriots up two spots to 3rd Overall in DVOA

Here’s the breakdown for the Pats:

  • Offense: 1st
  • Defense: 27th
  • Special Teams: 10th

And for this week’s opponent New York Jets:

  • Offense: 29th
  • Defense: 2nd
  • Special Teams: 1st

For what it’s worth the offenses the Patriots have faced rank:

  • Miami: 13th
  • San Diego: 12th
  • Buffalo: 3rd
  • Oakland: 4th

For those who don’t know about Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, here’s the gist of it:

DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

For a fully detailed explanation you go here.

Getting by without Jerod Mayo will benefit Patriots long term

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Call me crazy but I don’t think losing Mayo for 4-6 weeks is the end of the world for the Patriots. Yes I know Mayo is the leader of the defense, the one who *should* be making all the tackles, he calls all the plays, etc. I get it.

But let’s look at a few things.

After a solid first two weeks Mayo was already battling a thigh injury that Belichick revealed had been limiting him in practice. Mayo did not look right in Buffalo or in Oakland before he went down. He was missing tackles and a step behind in pass coverage. With the time off to heal this MCL injury he’ll also be able to heal his thigh.

I’m not the world’s biggest Gary Guyton fan, but he’s an experienced player who’s filled in for Mayo before. He will be an adequate replacement, although I question if he’s even the second Will linebacker on the depth chart.

Because behind Guyton you have a player who I am big fan of, Dane Fletcher, who looked like a beast at Will in the preseason. It could be Fletcher-Spikes-Ninkovich in base, with Guyton and Fletcher in sub. Regardless, throw in Brandon Spikes and Tracy White and the Patriots have the kind of depth needed to get by without Mayo for 5 games or so. Much moreso than they had in 2009 when they lost him.

Statistically the Pats D is at or near the bottom of the NFL in multiple categories, so it’s not like they can get much worse. Clearly they need some kind of a spark, and often times teams will rally around each other when they lose a leader.

By the same token Mayo is everything you want as a leader, but he’s not a Ray Lewis fiery personality type who is going to rally his troops, and that is something I think this defense also needs more of.

What I’d really like to see is Brandon Spikes step up and take more of a leadership role. Now of course Spikes is not an ideal three down player, but he should see an increase in playing time and responsibility. Guyton is more of a quiet type like Mayo, so I’d really love to see the defense taking their cues from Spikes a little more.

Belichick and Bruschi gave Spikes some nice praise this week on WEEI, calling him “instinctive” and saying he’s really developing into a good middle linebacker and taking positive growth steps in his second season. With Mayo out it’s a chance for Spikes to add a little more of his personality and leadership to this defense, and I think it will be just the right kind of enthusiasm injection the team needs.

The good news is that this injury does not appear to be a season ender for Mayo. If it was it would be hard to spin it as being anything other than a huge loss. But losing him for a just handful of games in the middle of the season could really be a rallying point for the rest of the defense to work harder and pick up the slack.

Mayo should be back for the stretch run, and that is when the Patriots will need him most.

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Danny Woodhead avoids serious ankle injury

I’ve been kind of surprised how Woody has yet to really get going this year. The emergence of Ridley has certainly covered that up though. Each week I predict big things for Woodhead but he hasn’t really delivered yet other than a couple long runs here and there.

Ian Rapoport of the Boston Herald reports:

I’ve learned that Woodhead escaped major damage on his ankle, and there is no broken bone or torn ligament. It is a sprain. It’s just not clear how bad it is or whether he’ll miss Sunday’s game against the Jets.

 

The first day is always the worst, and I’m sure it’s swollen. But the plan is for the Patriots to see how it responds to treatment and see how much better it gets. That’s one reason why it has been so hard to pin down a timetable. It all depends on how the ankle reacts over the next few days.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/danny-woodhead-avoids-serious-ankle-injury-ive/

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I think the more they get acclimated, the more comfortable they play, the more confident they’ll be and we’ll start seeing them play a lot more aggressively,” said Johnson. “We have a lot of playmakers, guy that can make plays, and you would feel a little bit more of that when guys become more accustomed to what we’re asking them do. I’m not going to pile more on their plate, I just want them to do it more aggressively, more often, with more consistency.

Pepper Johnson

https://www.patspropaganda.com/i-think-the-more-they-get-acclimated-the-more/

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Cromartie fires the first volley of Jets-Patriots.

And after last year’s foot escapades with Welker I don’t expect we’ll hear anything back from the Patriots this year.

“If you want to be a professional, be a professional,” Cromartie had said in January. “You’ve been there before scoring touchdowns, so go back to the sidelines … I hope he’ll throw the ball 10 times my way … Let the scoreboard speak for itself, which it did the last game. Let your play speak for itself. Don’t look at our sideline. That’s the biggest sign of disrespect.”

Eight months later he’s singing the same tune.

“What I said last year, I meant it,” Cromartie told Glauber. “I’m not going to take back anything. I’m definitely looking forward to this rivalry game. I still have the same feelings. Feelings don’t change. Whatever I said last year is not going to change.”

https://www.patspropaganda.com/from-the-fog/

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Belichick said on WEEI yesterday that the Oakland game was Brady’s most impressive of the year, based on his audibles and decision making. Of course it’s not hard when Wes Welker is getting open every single down.

I’m very curious to see how the Jets deal with Welker. A one on one all day versus Revis would be fascinating to watch.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/belichick-said-on-weei-yesterday-that-the-oakland/