PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

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Welcome to Wilfork Continent!

Thx @FanofFights!

https://www.patspropaganda.com/welcome-to-wilfork-continent-thx-fanoffights/

Top 5 Injured Patriots I’d love to see back at practice today

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Here’s my list of the Top 5 guys I’m praying to Hoodie are back at practice today. Or at least able to go on Sunday.

1. Albert Haynesworth – It will truly be a travesty if the Patriots are not able to take advantage of the struggling Jets offensive line. If Haynesworth plays and Nick Mangold does not Sanchez should take out some additional life insurance before kick off. There have been rumors that the Pats are holding Albert back for this game in particular. I don’t know if I necessarily buy that, though it seems like he’s getting close by the fact that he had a full pads practice last Wednesday.

2. Mike Wright – For similar reasons getting Wright back could be one of the biggest factors in how much of a Super Bowl push this Patriots team can make. Fanalysts can talk about “pass rushers” all they want, but until the Patriots have someone on the interior who can push the pocket they’re going to continue to struggle generating real pressure. Sadly I’ve all but written off Wright for the season, but it’d be nice to get him back at some point.

3. Leigh Bodden – Last time Bodden faced the Jets he picked off Mark Sanchez three times. Not to say that will mean much of anything Sunday, but Bodden needs to be out there to continue knocking off the rust. The trickle down effect through the secondary from having Bodden back would greatly improve what they can do. And put Kyle Arrington back in the slot where he’d been playing so well.

4. Aaron Hernandez – Really I could’ve put Hernando at number one but let’s face it, he’s a luxury at this point and it’s the defense that needs the most help. What we’ve seen in the two weeks since he’s been out is that he elevates the offense to another level. Gronk is an amazing player on his own, but when coupled with Hernando they’re pretty much unstoppable. Make no mistake, though he’s fourth here, I will jump for joy if he’s at practice later today.

5. Ras-I Dowling – Would it be too much for Ras-I to go a game without an injury? He’s shown some flashes out there, but it seems like every time he makes a play he’s injured a play later. It’s clear that they like him as an outside corner and not a Free Safety as many of us (me included) speculated. With all the big physical receivers that we’ve seen McCourty struggle with we could eventually see Dowling handling those guys in the future. If he can stay on the field. But it would be really helpful to have him on Plaxico in the red zone this weekend.

Football Outsiders: Patriots vs. Different Receivers Stats

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It’s been well pounded into all of our heads that the Patriots pass defense ranks at or close to the bottom of the NFL in just about every passing category. My favorite rankings come from Football Outsiders who break down performance against each different receiver.

These stats aren’t going to make you feel any better:

  • vs. #1 WR: 30th
  • vs. #2 WR: 26th
  • vs. Other WR: 5th (Hooray!)
  • vs. TE: 26th
  • vs. RB: 18th

Quick comparison to where the Pats finished in these rankings last year:

  • vs. #1 WR: 23rd
  • vs. #2 WR: 11th
  • vs. Other WR: 5th
  • vs. TE: 21st
  • vs. RB: 30th

Football Outsiders: Patriots up two spots to 3rd Overall in DVOA

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Football Outsiders: Patriots up two spots to 3rd Overall in DVOA

Here’s the breakdown for the Pats:

  • Offense: 1st
  • Defense: 27th
  • Special Teams: 10th

And for this week’s opponent New York Jets:

  • Offense: 29th
  • Defense: 2nd
  • Special Teams: 1st

For what it’s worth the offenses the Patriots have faced rank:

  • Miami: 13th
  • San Diego: 12th
  • Buffalo: 3rd
  • Oakland: 4th

For those who don’t know about Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, here’s the gist of it:

DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

For a fully detailed explanation you go here.

Getting by without Jerod Mayo will benefit Patriots long term

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Call me crazy but I don’t think losing Mayo for 4-6 weeks is the end of the world for the Patriots. Yes I know Mayo is the leader of the defense, the one who *should* be making all the tackles, he calls all the plays, etc. I get it.

But let’s look at a few things.

After a solid first two weeks Mayo was already battling a thigh injury that Belichick revealed had been limiting him in practice. Mayo did not look right in Buffalo or in Oakland before he went down. He was missing tackles and a step behind in pass coverage. With the time off to heal this MCL injury he’ll also be able to heal his thigh.

I’m not the world’s biggest Gary Guyton fan, but he’s an experienced player who’s filled in for Mayo before. He will be an adequate replacement, although I question if he’s even the second Will linebacker on the depth chart.

Because behind Guyton you have a player who I am big fan of, Dane Fletcher, who looked like a beast at Will in the preseason. It could be Fletcher-Spikes-Ninkovich in base, with Guyton and Fletcher in sub. Regardless, throw in Brandon Spikes and Tracy White and the Patriots have the kind of depth needed to get by without Mayo for 5 games or so. Much moreso than they had in 2009 when they lost him.

Statistically the Pats D is at or near the bottom of the NFL in multiple categories, so it’s not like they can get much worse. Clearly they need some kind of a spark, and often times teams will rally around each other when they lose a leader.

By the same token Mayo is everything you want as a leader, but he’s not a Ray Lewis fiery personality type who is going to rally his troops, and that is something I think this defense also needs more of.

What I’d really like to see is Brandon Spikes step up and take more of a leadership role. Now of course Spikes is not an ideal three down player, but he should see an increase in playing time and responsibility. Guyton is more of a quiet type like Mayo, so I’d really love to see the defense taking their cues from Spikes a little more.

Belichick and Bruschi gave Spikes some nice praise this week on WEEI, calling him “instinctive” and saying he’s really developing into a good middle linebacker and taking positive growth steps in his second season. With Mayo out it’s a chance for Spikes to add a little more of his personality and leadership to this defense, and I think it will be just the right kind of enthusiasm injection the team needs.

The good news is that this injury does not appear to be a season ender for Mayo. If it was it would be hard to spin it as being anything other than a huge loss. But losing him for a just handful of games in the middle of the season could really be a rallying point for the rest of the defense to work harder and pick up the slack.

Mayo should be back for the stretch run, and that is when the Patriots will need him most.