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Patriots-Bills Film Review: Defense Edition

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Yes, it’s time to take a look back at the car crash that happened on Sunday, when the Bills beat the Patriots pretty much across the board. And where else would I start than with the defense?

Now the common refrain I’ve heard over the past couple days is THEY ONLY GAVE UP 16 POINTS!

Well, this is true. And overall the Patriots defense is fourth in the league in points-per-game. That can’t be overlooked and as maddening as the Bend-Don’t-Break can be, it’s a proven game winner.

But from there just about every other defensive stat is bad. Real bad. They’re 29th in 3rd down defense and 28th in red zone defense. We’ll see how far they’ve fallen in DVOA on Tuesday.

So yes, the number of points allowed is certainly an important stat, and when you combine that with how the bad tackling, lack of edge setting, and overall sloppiness should all be corrected and there’s certainly a valid argument to be made that the Patriots defense will be okay.

But don’t ask me to feel good about how they’ve regressed in some of the most important aspects of the game since last year. Hopefully this game was just a stinker they needed to get out of the way.

Let’s take a closer look at the All 22 to get an emotionless look at what went wrong.

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Pats Posits: We’re On to Tom Brady

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tom bradyAnd that’s a wrap on Deflategate.

Tom Brady is back Patriots fans, just as the dreaded thoughts of “the end” were starting to seep into our consciousness, here comes TB12 to (we hope) the rescue.

The Patriots laid a goose egg on the scoreboard and on the field against the Bills, losing 16-0. For every bit they looked flawless against the Texans, they looked equally flawed against the Rex and Rob Ryan Wonder Twins.

But it was just another example of how even when the Pats get dominated, they never really get blown out.

Jacoby Brissett looked very much like an overwhelmed rookie and the offense was shut out at home for the first time since Drew Bledsoe‘s 1993 rookie season.

Fine. Whatever. Now Brady’s back, Gronk is getting healthier and this Garopposset Offense will soon be long forgotten as a footnote to the 2016 season.

But the defense was lit up for almost 400 yards and didn’t calm any nerves I had this week about how inconsistent they’ve been. They were terrible on third down. Allowed the Bills 36 minutes of possession. Why have they been so up-and-down in the first quarter of the season?

More on that and everything else in a “First Loss of the Season” edition of the Posits…

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The Best/Worst of the Week in Patriots Posts 10/1

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Rex week.

Gold. 0-2, back against the wall, dials up a big winner against the Cardinals last weekend. Cocky Rex is the best Rex, especially coming into Foxborough. Couldn’t have written it up any better. Love him, hate him, flat out despise him, but the entertainment factor is real. It’s always great to see him beat his big old chest and pull on Belichick’s cape leading up to every matchup. I can’t even think of a word to describe it…

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Coffin Corner: Let’s fix the NFL’s Rulebook

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In a dimly-lit, window-less room, deep in the bowels of an office building on Park Avenue, we find a man that closely resembles Professor Gerald Lambeau, disheveled, sweat dripping from his receding hairline, a cigarette resting limply on his lip. He feverishly picks up his red crayon and begins drawing something on the wall—Stick figures, a football, a physics equation.

PULL BACK to find adorning the walls are the etchings of a madman.

CATCH: To Catch a Predator ——–> Catch Me If You Can ——-> Catcher in the Rye – Reagan, Hinkley, Jodie Foster, ———> JFK?

A train of red yarn connects this to another series of notes –

TWO FEET – definition (Noun, Pl.) ——> 24 inches or dueling appendages attached to ankles”

Then another yarn string –

POSSESSION = 9/10ths of the Law!!!!!

Professor Lambeau steps back from his sprawling work to take in the sum of all of the respective parts. An equation that spans all four walls.

Eureka! He’s got it! Will Hunting and Sean the Shrink said he couldn’t do it, wasn’t smart enough, but he did. They bronze Fields medals for this type of work.

That is the only possible explanation for this definition of a “catch”:

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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 4 vs. Buffalo Bills

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This is it. The last Brady-less game of the 2016 season (we hope). Yes, there are plenty of questions surrounding who will be under center for the Pats in this one, but ultimately this is a tepid Bills offense that should never ever waltz into Foxboro and pull out a win, even we had good ole’ Tommy Hodson back there taking snaps.

Rex Ryan always makes things interesting and despite just a 4-11 record against the Pats, the average margin of victory in the last six games against Rex is just 4.7 points. Last year the Pats beat Ryan’s Bills by 40-32 (week 2) and 20-13 (week 11). So despite the records, this game will probably be interesting.

What has made them most interesting is Rex’s schemes against Tom Brady. Recently this has involved disguising his blitzers while dropping a majority of players into zone coverage. Often times this has slowed Brady down, but as Jeff Howe points out, Brady has still done as well as anyone (which isn’t saying all that much considering the shitlist that is quarterbacks who faced Rex at least five times):

Brady has completed 60.1 percent of his passes against Ryan’s Jets and Bills for an average of 282 yards per game to go along with 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His 91.2 passer rating against Ryan’s Jets (2009-14) was the highest among all quarterbacks to face him at least five times.

So now what happens with (probably) Jimmy Garoppolo or (possibly) Jacoby Brissett? The Bills have plenty of defenders who can wreck a gameplan, starting with Kyle Williams. The Patriots will need a sound offensive game from whoever their QB is to keep the Bills at bay.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense finally showed what they’re capable of against the Houston Texans, pitching their first meaningful shutout since 2009. Now they must contain Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy. If the Patriots defense is truly going to live up to their perceived talent level, this is another game they should be gunning for a shutout. Expectations are that high.

Here’s the gameplan for capping off the Brady suspension in style, with a win over our old pal Rexy, (who’s coming off a win btw)…

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Will the Patriots Defense Reach Their Potential in 2016?

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Things are going to change in 2017 for the Patriots defense. The list of defenders due to hit free agency after this season is long and talented — Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard, Alan Branch, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon and Chris Long are some of the high profile names.

Now, the Patriots have the cap space to re-sign who they want. They won’t re-sign all of them, but they have enough in the pipeline to overcome a few departures from that group. Guys like Trey Flowers, Cyrus Jones, Vincent Valentine and Eric Rowe are some who could potentially take elevated roles in 2017 if guys leave.

But make no mistake, change is coming and what the Patriots have right now on defense is as experienced and talented a group on paper as they’ve had since the mid-2000’s. We knew coming into the season that this defense had the chance to be special. This was supposed to be peak Patriots defense for the second time in Bill Belichick’s reign. That’s what happens when you return everyone except one defensive end, and add even more talented contributors like Long and Valentine.

But what is troubling is similar issues continue to haunt this defense and I can’t help but wonder if they’ll truly reach the level Patriots fan believed them capable of this offseason.

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Pats Should Keep Garoppolo Through 2017

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tom brady jimmy garoppoloThis weekend will hopefully be the last time of the 2016 season that we see a quarterback not named Tom Brady under center for the Patriots. Both Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett have shown plenty of promise in limited action and it’s whipped Patriots nation into an early frenzy — “who gets traded and for how many first round draft picks?!”

Garoppolo has apprenticed for two full seasons under Brady, and against the Dolphins, Garoppolo took his game to a new level, looking calm and collected in the pocket, delivering laser passes with pinpoint accuracy. There’s still some unknowns with Garoppolo, like how he does against a blitz-happy, disguise-based defense like Rex Ryan’s, but it’s clear that Garoppolo has what it takes to at least get a shot as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Now the discussion of Brady’s inevitable exit have begun. The Patriots still have Brady under contract through 2019. Garoppolo is signed through the 2017 season, meaning this coming offseason is the last chance the Pats could have to move him for more than a potential 3rd round compensatory pick. Now the Patriots could also franchise tag Garoppolo in the spring of 2018 as they did with Matt Cassel and then move him for significant capital, but they’ll certainly be tempted by a number of offers in the spring of 2017.

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