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Patriots Tuesday Ten Pack

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tom brady bill belichick

It’s hard to believe we’re closing in on the final quarter of the 2016 regular season. Football is getting cold and meaningful and before long we’ll be gearing up for another playoff run. As I wrote in the Posits yesterday, we’re getting so close to the end of the line without any major injuries it has me even more nervous.

Let’s hope the good health continues. We all know season-ending injuries in December are the ultimate season-changers. There’s little time to adjust so you have to redefine yourself on the fly in critical games. Not preferable.

Otherwise, it’s hard not to feel pretty good about the 2016 Patriots right now. They’re a bit banged up, have their crappy defensive possessions and Gostkowski’s still missing a kick almost every game, but compared to the rest of the league, the Pats have to be the Super Bowl favorites, even with their messy edges.

Here’s a ten pack of thoughts after letting the win over the Jets marinate, along with taking stock of the rest of the league.

1. From 2010-2015 the Patriots were 6-9 in games that they didn’t force a turnover. This year they’re 4-2, which speaks to the lack of turnovers this year, but also their ability to win in spite of it. I wonder if this will pay dividends down the road. From 2010-2013 the Pats failed to force a turnover in four-straight season-enders. They got one against the Broncos in 2015, but that wasn’t enough. Obviously things are way easier when they do get takeaways, but winning without them at this rate is pretty unique to this defense. Not feeling like they have to rely on them could be a positive spark.

2. The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos should all beat up on each other (and hopefully we beat up on the Broncos), so I think the odds must be good for the Pats to secure the top seed in the AFC as long as there isn’t an injury-induced meltdown in December like there was last season. The better offenses like the Raiders, Chiefs and Steelers seem at least capable of pulling off a playoff upset in Foxboro, but let’s face it, the Pats will be firm favorites against anyone in the AFC as long as the game is at home.

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Pats Posits: Toughness and Resiliency

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The Patriots survived the Jets like they often do, coming up with three big defensive plays and a game-winning touchdown drive in a 22-17 victory that moved Tom Brady into a first place tie with Peyton Manning with 200 all-time wins.

The defense that hadn’t forced a turnover in three games came through with a forced fumble from Malcolm Butler, a blocked field goal attempt by Alan Branch and a game-clinching strip sack by Chris Long.

The offense turned in a gritty performance, with Brady still hobbling with a knee injury and losing Rob Gronkowski in the first half to a back injury. The final come-from-behind touchdown drive took eight plays and 83 yards and including a fourth-down conversion that went to James White.

Vintage Brady, with passes to Edelman (24 yards), Lewis (16 yards) and Hogan (25 yards). It once again illustrates why the Patriots are always so hard to beat — they never quit and are always at their best with the game on the line.

The Jets couldn’t make the last play to seal the game and the Patriots did.

The Pats are now 9-2 and remain tied for the top seed in the conference with a two-game lead in the division.

More on the win, with only Rams standing between Brady and becoming the winningest QB of all time in then Posits…

malcolm mitchell

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Best/Worst in Weekly Patriots Links – 11/26

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tom brady gif

After a stint at WEEI as a columnist/co-host (with Dale and Holley), one of my very favorite sports writers Jerry Thornton has re-signed to Barstool, with a presumably Von Miller-esque deal. He gets us going this week with a rant within his “knee-jerk reaction” piece that makes me want to blast “Crazy Train” and run into brick walls:

Yet (Brady’s) ability to leave the pocket and throw on the run is the best of his career. But you Deflategate Truthers keep telling yourself it was always about air pressure. If there was a drop off in Brady’s performance, we’d never be hearing the end of it from you anti-science Flat Earth shitbags. But now that he’s playing some of his best football ever with allegedly untampered footballs, the silence is deafening.

Is it Sunday yet?! Absolutely love it and really couldn’t be more true. Proof is in the pudding with another ho-hum AFC player of the week award to add to the TB resume. If you don’t read Jerry’s “knee-jerk reaction” series after every game, start now. You’re genuinely missing out.

Okay, enough with the fun and games. Let’s refocus our efforts on continuing to fix the defense, which suffered an enormous (literally) loss this week with the suspension of defensive tackle Alan Branch. 

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 at New York Jets

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This year’s first Patriots-Jets game comes late in the season and with the Jets sitting at the bottom of the AFC East it’s certainly lacking some of the usual flash that this rivalry has. Despite the Jets down season, expect this one to be a battle down to the end. That’s pretty much how they always go, even when the Pats are en route to the top seed in the AFC and the Jets are busting out their golf clubs.

Three of the last eight matchups between these two have gone to overtime, including last year’s second-to-last game of the season which saw the Jets win 26-20. Overall the Patriots have won three of the last five games against the Jets by a total margin of 10 points.

No matter which Jets are on IR, or how bad Ryan Fitzpatrick has been or how much Revis has declined, the Patriots better be ready to go.

Here’s the gameplan to get it done.

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An Appreciation of James Develin

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develin

Well, it was another relatively easy victory for the Patriots despite defensive struggles in the first half. It was good to see the defense, specifically the secondary, rebound a bit in the second half, as they were able to do just enough for the Patriots to coast through the majority of the fourth quarter, giving Brady and Edelman a victorious homecoming.

Brady had another great day, throwing for 280 yards and four touchdowns, but the rushing attack stole the show in my opinion. The Patriots rushed for their highest yards per carry total on the season, averaging 5.7 YPC, and racked up their second-highest yardage total on the ground of the year. A large part of that success was the play of James Develin, who played a season-high 34 snaps and constantly carved out lanes for LeGarrette Blount to run through on the way to his second-highest rushing total thus far in 2016.

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Pats-Jets Q&A with Turn on the Jets

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tom brady

Happy Thanksgiving! In the spirit of the day I’ve joined forces with a rival blogger once again to get some intel on the enemy!

It may be hard to believe but one of my favorite football bloggers out there is Joe Caporoso who runs TurnontheJets.com. Joe writes his site the same way I try to write mine, with level-headed and insightful analysis, so over the years we’ve enjoyed trading emails talking football. No, it’s not just a “you suck. no, you suck” marathon, and hopefully you can glean some insight into the game this weekend from someone who follows the Jets as closely as yours truly follows the Pats.

Here’s our back-and-forth for this weekend!

MD: What’s gone wrong with the Jets this year? Even I am shocked (and yes, a bit dismayed) that they’ve fallen apart and now I’m seeing calls for Bowles to be fired. How did it come to this so quickly?
 
JC: To start, they have the worst quarterback in the NFL by a decent sized margin. It is hard to appreciate just how bad Ryan Fitzpatrick has been without watching him week to week but it has been ugly. The Jets are basically starting every game with an anchor tied to their foot at the bottom of a lake with him under center. Outside of that, they have had severe regression in key areas like redzone efficiency and turnover margin coupled with player regression from Darrelle Revis, Calvin Pryor, Brandon Marshall and Marcus Gilchrist among others. So basically, everything is broken. Bowles is becoming the primary scapegoat because he’s been bad this year but few people want to dig deeper into the larger problems with this roster.

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How Bend-Don’t-Break-y is this Patriots Defense?

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One thing I’ve learned over the years of studying Bill Belichick’s defense is that as long as they don’t give up big plays, tackle well and get red zone stops, he’s satisfied.

It’s never an aggressive, send-the-house blitzing style. It’s controlled and fundamentally solid. And usually it works. But that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating to watch.

We call it the “Bend-Don’t-Break” and it’s become the annoying mantra of a Patriots defense that often struggles to get off the field with consistency. By tracking yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive we get a sense of how much they bend. By tracking points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive (along with red zone and third down), we get a sense of how much they break.

So how does 2016 stack up with the previous B-D-B defenses? Let’s take a look at the long-term stats.

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