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Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 at New York Jets

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This year’s first Patriots-Jets game comes late in the season and with the Jets sitting at the bottom of the AFC East it’s certainly lacking some of the usual flash that this rivalry has. Despite the Jets down season, expect this one to be a battle down to the end. That’s pretty much how they always go, even when the Pats are en route to the top seed in the AFC and the Jets are busting out their golf clubs.

Three of the last eight matchups between these two have gone to overtime, including last year’s second-to-last game of the season which saw the Jets win 26-20. Overall the Patriots have won three of the last five games against the Jets by a total margin of 10 points.

No matter which Jets are on IR, or how bad Ryan Fitzpatrick has been or how much Revis has declined, the Patriots better be ready to go.

Here’s the gameplan to get it done.

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An Appreciation of James Develin

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Well, it was another relatively easy victory for the Patriots despite defensive struggles in the first half. It was good to see the defense, specifically the secondary, rebound a bit in the second half, as they were able to do just enough for the Patriots to coast through the majority of the fourth quarter, giving Brady and Edelman a victorious homecoming.

Brady had another great day, throwing for 280 yards and four touchdowns, but the rushing attack stole the show in my opinion. The Patriots rushed for their highest yards per carry total on the season, averaging 5.7 YPC, and racked up their second-highest yardage total on the ground of the year. A large part of that success was the play of James Develin, who played a season-high 34 snaps and constantly carved out lanes for LeGarrette Blount to run through on the way to his second-highest rushing total thus far in 2016.

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Pats-Jets Q&A with Turn on the Jets

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Happy Thanksgiving! In the spirit of the day I’ve joined forces with a rival blogger once again to get some intel on the enemy!

It may be hard to believe but one of my favorite football bloggers out there is Joe Caporoso who runs TurnontheJets.com. Joe writes his site the same way I try to write mine, with level-headed and insightful analysis, so over the years we’ve enjoyed trading emails talking football. No, it’s not just a “you suck. no, you suck” marathon, and hopefully you can glean some insight into the game this weekend from someone who follows the Jets as closely as yours truly follows the Pats.

Here’s our back-and-forth for this weekend!

MD: What’s gone wrong with the Jets this year? Even I am shocked (and yes, a bit dismayed) that they’ve fallen apart and now I’m seeing calls for Bowles to be fired. How did it come to this so quickly?
 
JC: To start, they have the worst quarterback in the NFL by a decent sized margin. It is hard to appreciate just how bad Ryan Fitzpatrick has been without watching him week to week but it has been ugly. The Jets are basically starting every game with an anchor tied to their foot at the bottom of a lake with him under center. Outside of that, they have had severe regression in key areas like redzone efficiency and turnover margin coupled with player regression from Darrelle Revis, Calvin Pryor, Brandon Marshall and Marcus Gilchrist among others. So basically, everything is broken. Bowles is becoming the primary scapegoat because he’s been bad this year but few people want to dig deeper into the larger problems with this roster.

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How Bend-Don’t-Break-y is this Patriots Defense?

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One thing I’ve learned over the years of studying Bill Belichick’s defense is that as long as they don’t give up big plays, tackle well and get red zone stops, he’s satisfied.

It’s never an aggressive, send-the-house blitzing style. It’s controlled and fundamentally solid. And usually it works. But that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating to watch.

We call it the “Bend-Don’t-Break” and it’s become the annoying mantra of a Patriots defense that often struggles to get off the field with consistency. By tracking yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive we get a sense of how much they bend. By tracking points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive (along with red zone and third down), we get a sense of how much they break.

So how does 2016 stack up with the previous B-D-B defenses? Let’s take a look at the long-term stats.

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Week 12 Scouting Report: The New York Jets

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The Patriots handled San Francisco about as well as we all hoped they would. The defense redeemed themselves in a pretty solid overall performance and the offense proved they could be just as intimidating sans Gronk and Chris Hogan. Now, here might be where the trap game comes. The Jets, while only having won three games, should not be overlooked. No team in the NFL is a gimme but this one might look pretty tempting. There is something about an away division game that could make for a more exciting game than Pats Nation may be comfortable with.

Here’s everything you need to know about the New York Jets, aka, “The Team of Many QBs (none of which are good).”

Week 12 at New York Jets

Sunday November 27

4:25 pm EST, CBS

High 40’s, 20% chance of rain, 9 mph winds

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Patriots-49ers Film Review: Defense Edition

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Let’s dive into the All-22 to take a look at the Patriots defensive performance against the 49ers on Sunday.

— The Patriots started the game with a three-and-out, sending Patrick Chung on a blitz both on second and third down, with him picking up the punt-forcing sack on the third down. Little bit of extra aggression (sent five) early on was nice to see.

— On the second series, the 49ers picked up a first down on third-and-nine that sparked a scoring drive. Old friend Chris Harper, he of 2015’s Harper’s Muff, lost Malcolm Butler out of a bunch set and went for 19 yards. Appeared to be some kind of miscommunication by the trio of cornerbacks, or it might’ve been on Hightower who vacated the flat to cover the tight end even though McCourty already had him.

— Seemed like a conscious effort to attack the defensive left side of the offensive line, with the three down lineman (Flowers-Branch-Brown) shaded to that side. All three were effective in holding their ground against the run here on the second drive.

— 3rd-and-8, 49ers get 26 with a pass to RB Draughn with Hightower in coverage. Problem was again out of a bunch set where Hightower applied a jam but it occupied him long enough for Draughn get get wide open downfield.

— One interesting development this season has been the extensive use of Devin McCourty in the box. Puts another spin on re-signing Duron Harmon this offseason. If Harmon walks, McCourty won’t have as much flexibility.

— Pats made a goal-line stand to force the field goal (Bend-Don’t-Break yo), and Vincent Valentine’s first down run stuff was a big reason why.

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Pats Posits: Winning in the Rain

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My second Pats Pilgrimage of the season was a brilliant-though-wet success, raising my record at games attended to 12-3 since 2006. I am always surprised by how many Patriots fans show up for away games and this one was close to 2014’s in San Diego. There’s nothing quite like the pure joy of passionate Pats fans assembling on the road to cheer our favorite team on.

It was clear we were in Foxboro west from the moment arrival.

First I was accosted on the BART after landing by an airport employee who had been waiting 16 years for Tom Brady to play in his home city. He was more fired up that I was! From that point there were just Patriots fans every where you looked and by the time we got to the stadium it looked like they outnumbered the 49ers fans.

When Brady came out for warmups the stadium exploded. Every section he walked by erupted in cheers, and during the game there were multiple “Brady” chants throughout. I’ve had two amazing game experiences this season that were just loaded with Brady love.

The game itself seemed like a no-win situation outside of a dominating blow out and really, that’s pretty much what we got. I know there were some things that didn’t look great at times and Matthew Slater got hurt, but overall things are progressing and the Pats are in the driver’s seat in the AFC.

More on a great weekend with family and Pats fans and another Patriots win in the Posits…

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