Let me begin by saying the Patriots offense was again at the top of the league in 2011. Despite the Super Bowl shortcomings, I still believe in Tom Brady and the overall philosophy of what the Patriots do. However that does not mean that there aren’t ways they can improve, and perhaps that biggest area is acquiring a true “X” receiver.
Notice I did not say “deep threat”. A deep threat is a characteristic of a player, not a position. This is why people were so confused when Chad Ochocinco was signed last off-season because he’s not a deep threat. He has, or had, the speed to get deep, but ultimately Chad was brought in because he was a true X receiver, something that the Patriots lacked in 2010 and felt they had to address.
An X receiver is one who plays on the line of scrimmage. He does not have the small cushion of the Z receiver who plays off the line of scrimmage, so he has to be able to beat press coverage quickly and get into his route. Usually the X is your traditional star wide receiver.
But an X receiver is much more than just a deep threat. And if you think the Bill Belichick would ever bring a player in for the sole purpose of just running endless go routes you haven’t been paying attention. (By the way that’s what Randy Moss had become in 2010 and a large part in why he was jettisoned and won’t return.)
The book is out on how to beat the 2010/2011 Patriots offense: Flood the middle of the field, get up on the receivers and don’t allow YAC. This forces the Patriots offense to become adept at pinpoint execution on multiple consecutive plays. Notably this is pretty much the philosophy of the bend-don’t-break defense. Is it ironic that what BB tries to do with his defense is exactly what gives his offense fits?
Often times, like we saw on those consecutive completion record-setting two drives in the Super Bowl, they will execute flawlessly and methodically move down the field 5-15 yards at a time. But in critical moments, especially if they need a quick score, this style of offense can be unproductive.
A true X receiver, in conjuncture with Gronk, Hernando and Welker, would elevate this offense to the next level. Brady is never going to be a bombs away quarterback, but simply having the threat of an explosive outside receiver who can beat jams and quickly get open would be a game-changer.
Deion Branch was once a pretty solid X-receiver and the Patriots offense has never been better than when he was. Now that Branch has begun to slow down he just isn’t the same threat he once was and thus doesn’t require the same attention from defenses.
Of course the hard thing is actually showing the rest of the NFL that the new X is a threat. Brady tried with Ochocinco, but it was pretty clear there wasn’t a reason to fear them.
Had Ochocinco ever developed a rapport with Tom Brady it likely could’ve made a big difference in Indianapolis. Of course, that’s speculative, but it’s clear that the Patriots understood the need for an X last off-season and their efforts to fill that need just didn’t pan out. Look for them to make a concerted effort to replace Branch this off-season.
You can simply say the Patriots need a “deep threat” but that’s really underselling what they need. They need to challenge defense not only deep, but outside the hashmarks. That’s simple geometry. And in the process you open things up even more for your vaunted tight ends and slot receivers.
There’s little doubt the Patriots offense will still be productive even if they do not develop an outside receiver in 2012, though it’s also likely they’ll be slowed down considerably against good defenses with the proper personnel.
But with a true X the Patriots offense will become far less reliant on consistently flawless execution and more able to attack every square inch of enemy territory.
When they can do that, watch out.
