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Best/Worst in Weekly Patriots Links-1/28 (Super Bowl Bye Week Edition)

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tom brady meme

And we’re onto Houston. What a win, what a week. Let’s get right to it and kick off with Bill Speros (Boston Herald) AKA “Obnoxious Boston Fan” on Twitter, who says a simple win means more than any revenge talk for Tom Brady:

Brady just wants to win. That is enough. He was angry long before Deflategate. He grew up in a home with three older sisters and probably needed an Airbnb reservation just to use the bathroom. He was the seventh-string quarterback when he enrolled at Michigan. He was taken with the 199th pick in the 2000 NFL draft. John Madden told him to take a knee. He only wins because he cheats. You get the point.

You’d be hard to find a better story than Tom Brady’s. Straight out of a movie script. Underdog. Cinderella. You name it. His entire career. From his very first moment as a Patriot when he told Robert Kraft, “I’m the best decision you’ve ever made,” to last Sunday when you could tell by the look in his eye he was going to eviscerate every last Steeler from the Rooneys to the idiot waving his terrible towel in the stands. He’s always had that “it” factor. This time around though, OBF, it does seem to have a little extra spice to it. I wonder why…

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Patriots Gameplan: Super Bowl Bye Week vs. The Haters

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No game this weekend so instead of a gameplan for the Pats I’m writing a gameplan for us, the Patriots fans.

It’s hard work being a Patriots fan when the games aren’t on, when we’re not kicking ass up and down the gridiron. Because we’ve been doing it for so long the countless blowhard pundits who need people talking about them often have our team in their crosshairs.

All you have to do these days is have a dumb opinion about Tom Brady and it’s going to spread like wildfire. Just ask Chris Simms.

The Pats’ merits are debated both at macro (Deflators! Videotapers!) and micro (Tom Brady can’t throw deep!, the defense hasn’t played anybody!) levels, because that’s what “sports media” is now and it’s annoying as hell to have to deal with for Patriots fans.

What can you do, New Englanders are passionate about their sports and that passion only seeps into all the other Patriots fans around the globe. I know because I hear from them. From places like Brazil and Germany and Hungary to name a few.

The support of this team runs deep everywhere by those who can appreciate excellent, once-in-a-lifetime quality football.

But this weekend let’s take a moment to appreciate what we have in this football team. How lucky we are that in this crazy world we have a diversion that has brought us all so much  joy over the last decade-and-a-half.

Let’s take a short trip down memory lane for some perspective.

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One Stat to Define Super Bowl 51 Matchup

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We’re still over a week away from Super Bowl 51 and the analysis of the matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons has been pouring in. This is what I live for — one opponent to focus on for an extended period of time.

In all my research into how the teams match up there’s one stat that really stick out like a Brian Baldinger Finger and that is Yards After Catch. It’s quite simple really:

  • Falcons Offense: 2nd in YAC (148.9 yards-per-game) vs. Patriots Defense: 1st in Preventing YAC (91.4 yards-per-game)
  • Pariots Offense: 3rd in YAC (145.9 yards-per-game) vs. Falcons Defense: 32nd in Preventing YAC (132.9 yards-per-game)

Usually, stats don’t really tell the whole story when presented without context. Things like yardage and sacks, stats that many use as a crutch to support their arguments are incredibly dependent on how particular games unfold. Nobody knows this better than Patriots fans, who’ve seen plenty of mush rush discipline and soft zones when they have a big lead. Those kind of situational stats don’t really tell us a lot about how good a team really is.

But Yards-After-Catch are pretty good indicators of two things — how much an offense leans on their receivers to make plays on short throws and how well defenses get into position and tackle. Those are strong tells of how the game will be fought and in the case of YAC, the stats firmly favor the Patriots.

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Making the Case for a Long-Term Logan Ryan Contract

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Patriots Cornerbacks

I’m trying to keep a focus on the Atlanta Falcons and the Super Bowl the next two weeks, but it’s hard to ignore the offseason that will start immediately after the Patriots win or lose in Houston. Most of all, I’m wondering about the defense, where there are multiple starters that are due to hit free agency, in no particular order:

Things were even more complicated at the end of last season, when we thought Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins would be in that group as well. Just because the numbers have been thinned doesn’t make it any less complicated. In fact, the last month or so of the season has really turned my priority list upside down, wondering where the Patriots can and should find the best deals.

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A Look Back at How Pats Defended Falcons in 2013

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The Pats haven’t seen the Falcons since Sunday Night Football in Week Four of 2013. Here were my post-game takeaways back when I was writing for Bleacher Report.

Schematically, at least for the Falcons’ defense, there’s isn’t a ton to take away. This is even more true when you consider the Pats leading receiver was Kenbrell Thompkins with six catches, 127 yards and a touchdown. Julian Edelman wasn’t far behind seven catches for 118 yards.

The Pats rolled Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden as their running backs, none of whom are anywhere close to the receiving threats Dion Lewis and James White are. The Falcons’ defensive coordinator was Mike Nolan back then, so the Seattle-esque defensive scheme had not been installed.

However, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were still the straws stirring the drink back then so it’s worth taking a look at how the Pats defended them.

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Five First Impressions of the Falcons

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The extra week off gives a little extra time to jump into some more in-depth film review of the opponent, so I’ve enjoyed the chance to take a look at the Falcons. Admittedly, I get so focused on the Patriots during the season it’s hard to keep track of what every other team is doing, especially in the NFC.

First, the obvious thing to get out of the way is that the Falcons’ offense is explosive. Julio Jones and Devontae Freeman are two players that jump off the screen. Defensively, they’re fast and do a fair amount of rotation up front to keep players fresh. Vic Beasley and his 15.5 sacks are the biggest overall threat.

Here’s what Belichick had to say about the Falcons overall:

“I’d say the stamp on the team, the thing that I would notice the most is just the speed, the team speed that the Falcons have,” Belichick said. “They have a lot of fast guys. Defensively they close up space very quickly. Their linebackers run well. Their defensive line, although they have a couple of big, strong, physical guys in there, overall they have usually nine or 10 players on the field that I would say are fast. They’re either as fast or faster than probably what the average speed of their position is in the league. I’d say that’s a big stamp that (Dimitroff) has put on the team.

We saw plenty of matchups against both a fast defense (Colts 2000s) and the Seahawks scheme so I expect the Patriots will have a good idea how to attack them. The Pats certainly have the heavy personnel option to test their physicality, but there are plenty of favorable coverage matchups to exploit as well.

Here are my five other initial impressions of Atlanta:

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Don’t Bet on a Super Bowl 51 Shootout

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Sports Illustrated gave an early preview of their Super Bowl cover this week and as you can see below the headline matches what pretty much everyone has been writing/thinking: SHOOTOUT!

Yes, the Falcons have put up 80 points in their two playoff games combined and broke 38 points seven other times this season. The Patriots are no slouches either, having put up 70 points in their two playoff games. The opening over/under was 58.5, the highest over/under in Super Bowl history, but I wouldn’t go betting the over just yet.

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