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Coffin Corner: Analytics-hating Patriots Will Break Football Outsiders Database

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In March of 2014, when Bill Belichick signed Darrelle Revis to a one-year deal, I was so convinced of the Patriots defensive dominance that I bet my boss, an extremely successful TV writer, $20 that they would go undefeated.

This same writer has written scores of televisions shows, including one of the most lucrative of the last two decades, won the most prestigious awards in television and has had success few could dream of, but give him truth-serum and I’m sure the $20 he won off of me after THE FIRST GAME was the most satisfying victory he’s ever experienced. Not to mention the slaughter in Kansas City that came a few weeks later. Not a meeting or chat goes by that he doesn’t remind me of my overconfidence. Because there is no more relished feeling in the world than schadenfreude, the pleasure in an enemy’s pain or loss.

If you need proof, just remember how many replays you watched of Roger Goodell’s disappearing act at the podium last February: “Where did he go? Back and to the left. Back. And to the left.” Anyway, you know why I made that bet with my old boss? I thought because ’07 happened that it could happen again, ignoring the fact that it was a statistical anomaly, because I bore witness to it.

You’re already seeing the Boston sports landscape head in this direction before training camp even begins, which should worry us all.

Hot take: I hated ’07. Not simply because it cost me $20 7 years later. Not simply because the gut punch Super Bowl. Not simply because I couldn’t sleep for like 5 nights after that game because the alcohol was still draining from my body. I hated it because a win never felt like a win, even by 40 points, it felt like an escape.  It’s a bad thing to be a fan and simply rooting for the best team in the league is not enough, or the best team in the decade, no, it has to be perfect. Which sucks.  And Bill Belichick and Tom Brady make fans feel justified, because they have created a statistical anomaly, they make numbers their bitches (see here, buy the sweatshirt).

Plenty of fans loved the Moss season, but to me ’07 was the height of hubris in Patriots nation. Thankfully,  the “do your job”, “no days off” humility returned and produced two Super Bowls.

Anyway, I’ve learned my lesson. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict, they do NOT go 16-0… and add that I hope they don’t. Because competition and struggle are the only ways we humans get better at things. Besides, too many fluky things happen: fumbles, penalties, injuries, ‘integrity’-driven suspensions, etc…

Now, all that out of the way. I think the 2017 New England Patriots will have the most efficient offense in NFL history and could break Football Outsiders database in two.

Sorry Bill, but we’re talking about advance metrics.

 

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Patriots Positional Preview: Quarterbacks

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<a rel=I’ve saved the best for last here with the positional preview excerpts from the season preview guide (available here in its entirety for just $5) — the quarterbacks.

The Patriots have the luxury of having three quarterbacks that they love on the roster. Yes, it all starts with Tom Brady, who, in his 17th season as the starter, has a chance to keep setting the bar for quarterback greatness even higher. It’s hard not to feel spoiled wondering about the implications of another Super Bowl season for number 12. Brady has delivered one of the most special NFL careers in history and shows no signs of slowing down.

But we all know the end of NFL careers can come abruptly so it’s important to enjoy every moment that we get to see the legend continue. The Patriots are well protected with Jimmy Garoppolo, who was the subject of much debate all offseason.

All along I believed they should keep Garoppolo. Having a quarterback you can win with is the absolute most valuable asset a team can have and it would be foolish to move him for anything less than a blockbuster deal that would give the Patriots multiple high-round assets over the next few seasons.

Now the team has a reliable backup quarterback who would still keep the Pats very much in the Super Bowl contender conversation should the unthinkable happen atop the depth chart. They can use the Cassel method next offseason, franchise tag and trade, to still get something for Garoppolo. It might not be as much as they might’ve gotten this past offseason, but that’s the price of insurance. At this stage of Belichick and Brady’s career, I’m fine paying a little extra for insurance.

Brissett is the true x-factor in all of this. If he continues to build on a rookie season where he was thrown into the fire immediately, he just might be the heir apparent everyone assumed Garoppolo would be. Brissett’s development will be a major thing to watch this summer through the preseason, and could tell us a lot about Garoppolo’s future.

Here’s a closer look at the trio of signal callers.

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Patriots Positional Preview: Defensive Tackles

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The countdown to camp with positional excerpts from my season preview book continues today with the defensive tackles.

One of the most underrated groups on the roster, Alan Branch, Malcom Brown and Vincent Valentine did a fantastic job controlling the heart of the offensive line and winning the battles in the trenches in 2016. The result was the best-ranked run defense (4th in Football Outsiders DVOA) ever under Belichick.

This is even more of an accomplishment when you consider the Patriots now use two defensive linemen to do what three used to do.

Branch might’ve been the defensive MVP for a large chunk of the season. The huge veteran often lined up at nose tackle and was near unmoveable. While Brown doesn’t have much flash to his game, but he’s an athletic technician who always seems to be in the right spot. He should start to get even more notice in his third year.

Together, Brown and Branch gave the Patriots everything they could expect from two stout tackles tasked with occupying multiple blockers and controlling the line of scrimmage.

Valentine did an outstanding job filling in at times for Branch and Brown and should take more strides in his second season. His goal line stop in the AFC Championship (see GIF) was the highlight of his season and a play to build on.

While the starting trio returns intact, free agent signee Lawrence Guy is one of then most intriguing new players who is below many radars. Guy’s interior pass rush skills should be a huge asset while his role on early downs is something to watch.

Let’s take a closer look at all the defensive tackles!

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Patriots Positional Preview: Tight Ends

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rob gronkowski gronk spike

Training camp is less than two weeks away and we’re starting to wrap up our positional preview excerpts from this year’s season preview book. With just a few position groups to go, today we’re taking a look at the tight ends.

This is one of the few areas where there will be a significant personnel change from 2016, with Dwayne Allen being swapped in for Martellus Bennett. Bennett’s ability to ably fill in for Rob Gronkowski was one of the big factors in getting the Pats their fifth Super Bowl.

Many pundits tried to sell us that without Gronk the Pats just weren’t dynamic enough to win the big one, but Bennett helped prove that theory wrong.

If Gronk plays the entire season it won’t really matter all that much how well Allen assimilates, but Belichick has had high praise for the former Colt so it will be interesting to see his role in the offense, which I expect to be a versatile one.

There could also be a roster spot to be had by a third tight end, a job that would have to be won in training camp. Draft weekend trade acquisition James O’Shaughnessy could be a favorite along with Matt Lengel, who was acquired and played some snaps after Gronk was lost in 2016.

Let’s take a closer look at the tight ends.

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Patriots Position Preview: Safeties

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Today we’re taking a closer look at the last line of defense — the safeties.

It was somewhat surprising to see the Pats bring back Duron Harmon on a four-year, $20 million deal, but it’s hard to complain about keeping a trio of veteran safeties together who have been amongst the best in the league since 2014.

The rotation is clear now. Devin McCourty plays on the back end on early downs but has been used more and more in coverage closer to the line of scrimmage on passing downs. Patrick Chung rarely comes off the field now as well and spends his time mostly in the box or in man-to-man coverage on tight ends.

It’s Harmon’s back end ability that allows the defense to move McCourty around and that kind of flexibility is invaluable.

We know what we’re getting with McCourty, Chung and Harmon, but it’s then bottom of the roster that might be the most intriguing for training camp. The team brought in a trio of rookie safeties who should push third-year player Jordan Richards, who fell off the radar in 2016.

An injury to one of the top three would immediately change the dynamic of the defense on the back end that we’ve gotten comfortable with for the last three seasons. So while it’s easy to just assume everything will be great at safety the complexion can change quickly and suddenly, and the lower end players could end up getting called upon to contribute.

Let’s take a closer look at the safeties and how rookies David Jones and Damarius Travis could be the undrafted rookie(s) to make the team this year.

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Patriots Positional Preview: Offensive Line

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Thuney in his first NFL game vs. Calais Campbell

Today we’re on to one of the most important positions on the roster, the guys who keep #12 safe and open up all those holes in the running game — the offensive line.

After losing Nate Solder in 2015, it was clear how vital the veteran left tackle was to the offense. His return to health in 2016, coupled with the return of Dante Scarnecchia as well as great luck injury-wise, gave the Pats some of their best play upfront in recent memory.

Marcus Cannon emerged from the depths of his 2015 season to have the best year of his career. It was one of the most unexpected turnarounds from an oft-maligned player.

The interior of the line has a great young core, with David Andrews, Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason. Thuney stepped into the starting LG spot and was a stalwart ala Logan Mankins in 2005. That trio should only get better as they enter their second season together.

Reinforcements arrived this offseason as well, with Tony Garcia, perhaps the future at left tackle, drafted in the third round. The team also added Conor McDermott, an athletic tackle in the sixth round and a pair of undrafted rookie tackles.

An extension for Nate Solder could still be possible, but more likely is that his replacement will be groomed this season. The team has thrown enough at the wall that someone should emerge, with Garcia likely stepping into the backup swing role that should get him onto the field early.

The only other question is the interior depth where rookie Ted Karras was solid in spot duty as a rookie. He won’t be handed the job this year and will face plenty of competition for his roster spot this summer.

Let’s break down the entire line.

 

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Pats Swag Giveaway: Nima Bluetooth Helmet Speaker

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Thanks to the folks at Nima for sending me two of their awesome Bluetooth Helmet Speakers to give away! Head over to Twitter and retweet this tweet for your chance to win!

As I’ve just got finished re-establishing the Ministry of PatsPropaganda in a new office, this Patriots helmet speaker was the perfect addition. Obviously, it’s a Patriots helmet, so it fits in seamlessly with all the rest of the Pats stuff that adorn the walls and shelves.

The set up was easy, you can either do it over bluetooth or use an app that allows you full control of everything and the sound is great. You can also pair two of the speakers together, and it can be used as a speakerphone as well.

Now my pregame mixes and blogging music will all be played through this sweet piece of technology. Good luck to everyone entering the twitter contest. Winners will be picked at random on Wednesday.

Pick one up for yourself here.