PatsPropaganda

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Week four always a proving point for Patriots

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Week four of the Patriots season has always seemed like a proving point where we get a sense of just what kind of team we’ve got this year.

Let’s take a look back at all the week four games since 2005, the last time the Pats closed the first quarter of their season out with a loss.

2005 – Pats are mauled at home by the Chargers 41-17, coming off a costly win in Pittsburgh that saw them lose both Matt Light and Rodney Harrison for the season. This set the tone of inconsistency as the Pats would go on to lose three of their next seven. This was arguably one of the worst Patriots teams in the Belichick era.

2006 – Coming off a disappointing loss at home to the Broncos 17-7 in what was supposed to be a “revenge game” the Pats had to go to Cincinnati to face a 3-0 Bengals team that had just beat the Steelers. Many were predicting this was the end for the Pats, but New England responded with a 38-13 beatdown of the Bengals, who had looked like an offensive juggernaut up to that point.

2007 – In hindsight it may be easy to overlook the 2007 Pats 34-13 win over the Bengals in this week four, but in the lead up to the game there were quite a few pundits who thought the Bengals would hold their own at home. Still, the 2007 Pats tend to be outliers regardless, but this was a big win on Monday Night Football that kept the undefeated train rolling.

2008 – The Pats had a bye in week four but they needed that extra week to regroup after the Wildcat coming out party that handed them a shocking 38-13 pounding at home from the Dolphins. The Pats played well enough to win, but it was clear that the Pats were just not the same without Tom Brady. The following week they looked listless in a 30-10 loss to the Chargers.

2009 – The Pats were coming off a home win against the Falcons, but the Ravens were undefeated and looked like the class of the AFC. The resulting 27-21 Pats win showed a toughness not demonstrated very often in 2009, but it was proof that the talent was there if they could just put it all together. Which they never did. If there was one year where week four wasn’t a sign of things to come, this was it.

2010 – The Pats looked really vulnerable in the three prior games. They squeaked out wins against the Bengals and Bills, and had looked lethargic in a 28-14 loss to the Jets. Going into Miami on Monday Night looked to be a tough match up, especially with the 2-1 Dolphins playing the Jets tougher than the Pats had. But the the Pats rolled on the back of their special teams and defensive play, coming out with a dominating 41-14 win that reminded the NFL they weren’t going anywhere.

2011 – The Pats were coming off game in Buffalo where they blew a 21-3 lead and the 2-1 Raiders had put up 69 points in their last two games. Raiders fans were confident as they always are, knowing Oakland is never an easy place to play. The Pats showed great focus and the kind of perseverance that would become a trademark of their 2011 season, pulling out a 31-19 win.

As you can see the Patriots almost always lose a game and/or have some shakiness in the first three weeks of the season, which has set up some pivotal battles in week four that more often than not reveal some of the characteristics of this year’s team.

In most cases the Patriots have responded, but either way we should have a better sense of just who the 2012 Patriots will be come Monday.

Three for the show: 1.) I personally miss Sergio Brown–he was a mauler, a brawler, a speed demon on special teams. 2.) I hate the 4-3; Jones looks like one of those hockey games where he just goes up and down on the same track while the running back goes into the B gap he vacates; Ninko is too light to go up with an OT. 3.) Every super bowl win was with Romeo–D needs a Romeo.

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1) I’m not sure if you’re being facetious or not, but my feelings on Sergio Brown are pretty well documented so I’m just going to leave this one alone.

2) Personally I think this version of the 4-3 is a positive step for BB’s defensive philosophy, but yes, so much of it’s success is predicated on Ninkovich. When’s he on he’s a solid player and one that I like, however he’s got to be more consistent. Because when’s he’s off it really hurts the entire defense.

3) The thing that has the natives restless is how conservative BB is with his defense. I’m not sure how much more aggressive RAC made them, but I think we could all live with a little more attacking a little less soft zone.

Friday is Patriots Q & A day, send your questions here.

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Bills pressure will be different than what the Patriots faced last week vs. Baltimore – Baltimore brought more pressure from different looks, where they would overload a side and bring rushers from different places. Buffalo is built to get pressure with their front four. They will look for match-ups and try to use inside rushes to prevent Brady from stepping up in the pocket and allow big-money edge rushers to get there against the Patriots tackles.

Sometimes scout’s breakdowns actually make me think I almost know what I’m talking about…

patriots – One scout’s breakdown of Patriots-Bills: Slowing Buffalo pass rush is key – WEEI | Christopher Price

This one too:

“The Patriots must disrupt timing of Buffalo passing game and make Ryan Fitzpatrick uncomfortable. The Buffalo offense is based off quick reads and decisions. C.J. Spiller has added speed in the running game, and the difference between Spiller and Jackson is the speed to exploit defense. Jackson runs hard, has vision and is a quality back, but Spiller speed exploits creases in defense created by the spacing of Buffalo’s offense. If Spiller is out, an explosive element is gone from Buffalo’s game plan. New England must gang-tackle Jackson – he’s strong enough to break through the initial hit – and hit Spiller often.” 

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-bills-14/

Dick LeBeau and the evolution of coverage tactics in the zone blitz – Grantland

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Dick LeBeau and the evolution of coverage tactics in the zone blitz – Grantland

Good X and O stuff as always from Chris Brown…

Nick Saban, currently the head coach at Alabama, was the defensive coordinator under Bill Belichick when the two were with the Cleveland Browns in the early 1990s. While speaking to high school coaches at a recent clinic, Saban summed up the early problems of traditional spot-dropping zone coverage: “Well, when Marino’s throwing it, that old break on the ball shit don’t work.”

The answer that Saban, Belichick, and many others developed was “pattern-match” coverage — essentially man coverage that uses zone principles to identify the matchups. As Saban explained at the 2010 Coach of the Year Clinics Football Manual clinic:

You can play coverages in three ways. You can play zone, man, or pattern-match man. Pattern-match man is a coverage that plays the pattern after the pattern distribution. That means you pick up in man coverage after the receivers make their initial breaks and cuts. We number receivers from the outside going inside. If the number-one receiver crosses with the number-two receiver, we do not pick up the man coverage until they define where they are going.

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Bills

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It would be hard deny I’m a little worried about this game in Buffalo. Yes, the stats look nice for the Pats vs. the Bills over the past decade, Tom Brady has only ever lost twice to them. But those who have watched the games know how close most of those have been, and it’s a pretty sure bet we’re in for another close one this weekend.

Now the Pats come into Buffalo at 1-2, with the closest thing resembling an early season “must win” in the last decade. And make no mistake the Bills are a team that have been constructed in recent years with taking down the Patriots in mind, and they’ve done it in a way that a Patriots uber blogger like myself can appreciate. If I was building a team to take down my beloved team, I’d do it the way the Bills are, though I’d surely still wish I had a couple more weapons on offense and maybe a slightly more consistent quarterback.

They can rush the passer with four, are not afraid to play press man coverage and they have a quick passing game that can eat the soft zone “bend don’t break” defense up. All of these things have given the Patriots fits over recent years.

So this should be an excellent game, and one that requires the Patriots turn in their most complete team effort of the 2012 season. Here are my weekly five keys as to what they’ll need to do to pull out the win and get back to .500.

1. Defensive Disguise: The thing that stands out most with Ryan Fitzpatrick is just how quickly he gets the ball out. He rarely holds it longer than 3 seconds and as a result he is barely ever sacked. He can however be fooled into making some bad throws, especially with such an accelerated decision process, so the Patriots must try to force those throws to the wrong places by disguising what they’re doing. From a personnel standpoint the Patriots have been fairly straightforward on defense, but this week we could finally see some switches, or at the very least, some guys in spots we haven’t seen before, especially from the usual edge rushers. Don’t be surprised to see Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich standing up and walking around. We saw the premiere of the “five and dime” defense against Buffalo a few years back and could see something similar this time around.

2. Interior Chaos: Another way to force Fitzpatrick into his interception-throwing ways is make sure his sight lines are not clear. This is done with an interior rush that can push the pocket and run stunts to keep the throwing lanes murky at best. It’s not something the Patriots have excelled at since losing Mike Wright and Myron Pryor, and they might be hard-pressed to find the personnel to pull it off this week but they’ll have to try something. Part of me wonders if newly-signed Terrell McClain was brought in just for this purpose. Even so expect to see a good dose Jermaine Cunningham and perhaps Brandon Deaderick to try and cause some disruption inside. And if Vince Wilfork could turn in a game like he did in last year’s AFC Championship that would be extremely helpful.

3. Believe it or not, a lot of Ridley: The Bills will run nickel personnel on defense as their base and that will tempt the Patriots to run on them, as it should. The Bills were built to combat Tom Brady’s aerial assault but can the Pats finally break through with their power running game and have that lead the way like the passing game usually does? It would improve their chances in Buffalo by not playing into the strength of their defense. The problem is that the Pats have lacked a significant push from their offensive line in the running game, and Dareus, Williams, and Williams are no pushovers. Still, if the Bills think they have the answer to Tom Brady it might be time to change the question. Ridley has an explosive playmaking ability that the Pats have lacked on the ground in recent years. If he can get going it will take the Bills out of their comfort zone and the Pats could roll.

4. Neutralize Kyle Williams: Anyone who reads this blog knows how much I covet an interior rusher and Kyle Williams is arguably the best penetrator in the NFL. I believe Solder and Vollmer will be able to hold down the edges from the pass rushers but it’s the inside guys of Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, and (hopefully) Logan Mankins (who didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday) that concern me. The problem with an interior guy like Williams is he takes away Brady’s ability to step up, and we’ve seen numerous times when he can’t step up he’s not nearly as effective. If Mankins can’t go this becomes even dicier. Connolly has struggled, Wendell has been inconsistent, and Mankins is still getting back into form before sustaining a hip injury that has limited him. The success of the Patriots offense might very well rest in the hands of how well they deal with Kyle Williams, and to a slightly lesser extent Marcel Dareus.

5. Win: As always it’s the only thing that matters. This is arguably the toughest division game the Patriots will have this season (depending on where the Jets are at come Thanksgiving) and it comes at a critical time for the Patriots. The Bills know the Pats are on the early season ropes, and there’s no question what dropping New England to 1-3 could do for their confidence. The Patriots need to find their identity still on offense, defense and special teams. They’ve had their moments in all three phases but there is still an element of unknown across all of them. 1-3 is not an inescapable hole but things will certainly not get easier with Peyton Manning coming to town next weekend. The Patriots need to send a message to the AFC East and the rest of the NFL that they’re still a team that can win the close ones, especially against a tough divisional opponent on the road. This could really be the game that puts the 2012 Pats on the right track.