They’ll do what they always do, attack the opposing defense however they see fit, but I don’t think we should write off 12 personnel because of the inherent advantages it provides in the modern NFL.
11 personnel doesn’t cause the same kind of problems because there’s no choice for the defense to make between base or sub – they’ll go sub 90% of the time at least.
But with Gronk and Ballard, or Gronk and Sudfeld, defenses will have to choose what they want to do. And then the Pats will take advantage.
Until Gronk gets back could they go more 11? Depends on how you feel about Sudfeld/Fells vs. Dobson/Boyce/Edelman and how they matchup against the defense.
Now if the Pats prove they can run effectively out of 11 personnel that can alter the dynamic a bit because it changes the question for the defense. Then it asks the defense if they have a linebacker or safety who can cover one of the Pats’ WRs. Most don’t, but again it’s not like it’s Moss-Welker-Stallworth-Gaffney anymore, they’d likely be covering a rookie.
So if they have a physical safety they might be okay dropping him down on say, Dobson, and getting really physical with him. That’s why I think we’ll still see a lot of 12 personnel.
It’s a game-to-game, and even snap-to-snap, thing. We’ll see how it plays out, but I’d expect a pretty good balance, with more 12 than 11 at a 50-40 ratio (10 percent will be short yardage/10/21/22/etc.).
