Forget Brady vs. Rivers, It’s RBs vs RBs

I jumped back and watched last year’s Patriots defeat of the Chargers and was left thinking that if you’re betting on Super Bowl 53 and the playoffs this one might simply boil down to which stable of running backs has the better game.

While the 2018 Patriots offense is most effective with Sony Michel having early-down success, running him right into the teeth of the Chargers defense isn’t probably the smartest attack. Last year, Dion Lewis and Mike Gillislee combined for 78 yards on the ground. But it was Rex Burkhead and James White‘s combined 12 catches for 153 yards that gave the Chargers the most problems.

Here’s some more great info from Kevin Duffy of the Boston Herald:

The Chargers backfield trio of Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson combined for 138 targets this season, or 27.2 percent of Rivers’ throws. Oddly enough, Brady looked for James White, Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel on 27.7 percent of his passes, too. That’s a higher target share than Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram received in New Orleans.

What makes the dynamic especially intriguing: As prolific as Gordon and Ekeler can be in the passing game, the Chargers defense is abysmal at containing pass-catchers out of the backfield. They allowed a league-worst 973 receiving yards to running backs. According to Pro Football Reference, it’s the second-highest total allowed by a defense in the past decade. Only the 2015 Rams surrendered more receiving yards to running backs.

For the Patriots’ defense it’s clear that everything will key off of Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen. Those are the two pieces that Bill Belichick will do his best to take away.

Stopping Gordon both on the ground and through the air is the single biggest key to the game. He looked like the best back in the league for a long stretch of the season, but since returning from injury he and the Chargers have not been as dominant.

Elandon Roberts, who had a nice stop on Gordon for loss last year, figures to be a key early down presence on defense and how he does behind Malcom Brown and Lawrence Guy will have a large impact on the Patriots’ chances.

Gordon had an 87-yard touchdown run that will certainly be shown countless times inside Gillette Stadium this week. Outside of that he was largely ineffective, but it’s an easy example of how deadly Los Angeles’ running back can be if edges are not set and tackles missed. Luckily Cassius Marsh’s spot on that run is now being played by Dont’a Hightower.

Gordon will test the middle of the Pats defense and their ability in coverage on short catch-and-run plays that make the Chargers offense go. If they have consistent success the Patriots could very well lose the game. But we have every reason to believe that the technically sloppy Patriots defense we saw on the road won’t show up now for the first time at home. That would be devastating.

It’s strange that in perhaps a final playoff meeting between two great quarterbacks that it should actually depend on the ground games more than their arms. This should still be a close game so it won’t be surprising to see Brady or Rivers called upon to will his team to a comeback.

The Patriots are suited for that kind of passing-heavy game, with a deep stable in the secondary that can present a number of coverage options. It all just depends on setting White and Burkhead loose underneath, then seeing the gameplan open up to everyone else.