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Football Outsiders: Patriots #3 Overall DVOA

November 23, 2010 by Mike Dussault

Will have the DVOA graph coming shortly but for now check out this little nugget from this weeks rankings about the Pats offense.

One thing that’s interesting about this year’s parity is that it only exists in terms of total team performance. There are extremes at the top and bottom of the ratings for offense, defense, and special teams. (Well, the bottom of the ratings for defense, anyway. Not the top.) Let’s go back to the Patriots for a moment. Do you wonder how the Patriots have gotten to 8-2 despite a young, undisciplined and outright poor defense? Well, no matter how good you think the Patriots offense has been, they’ve been better. Based on our numbers, this is the second-most efficient offense the Patriots have put on the field, trailing only the record-breaking 2007 team. In fact, this could be the best offense we’ve ever measured other than that team. Yes, the Patriots are only seventh in the league with 5.6 net yards per play, but they’ve been outstanding at extending drives and extremely good at avoiding turnovers. The Patriots are first in DVOA on third and fourth downs, and their 78.8% rating is far ahead of any other team. (Atlanta is second at 50.6%.) Meanwhile, only Kansas City (seven) has fewer turnovers than New England’s nine, and one of those Patriots turnovers was a Hail Mary pass at the end of regulation before their overtime victory over Baltimore. The Patriots aren’t keeping the turnovers down through fumble recovery luck – they have only one fumble that they themselves have recovered to go with the three that their opponent have recovered. As a result, the Patriots are tied with the 2004 Colts as the second-best offense we’ve ever tracked through Week 11.

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