Football Outsiders has the Pats at #2 overall in DVOA this week, and as you can tell from the chart their offense has been gaining steam since the loss to the Browns. Check out this little blurb from the posting:

This week, the Patriots move ahead of the 2004 Colts as the second-best offense in DVOA history through Week 12. More astonishing is the fact that New England’s current DVOA of 45.2% matches the 45.2% offensive DVOA that the record-setting 2007 Patriots put up over the entire season. Remember, the 2007 Patriots faded from otherworldly to merely very good over the second half of the season. If the current Patriots don’t have a similar fade, they have a shot to rank as the greatest offense in DVOA history, despite trading a Hall of Fame receiver in midseason.

Pretty impressive, eh? Well this is the week when you can throw all this stuff out the window. A loss to the Jets will really change the course of the Patriots season, just about assuring that they will have to take a Wild Card path in the playoffs.

While the offense has really taken off, special teams and defense have remained flat. If the Patriots are to be considered a true Super Bowl favorite they absolutely must begin to show signs of improvement in both areas. 

The Bend Don’t Break defense is never pretty in the stats column. The only column it is pretty is in the wins one.

Special Teams have been slowly fading since excellent performances early in the season against Miami and Baltimore. This is one area the Pats could use a big play, but that won’t be east against Mike Westhoff’s Jets squad.

(note – the defensive rating is inverted to make it easier to track on the graph.)