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I was thinking that the Bengals will probably go at worse 5-3 in their remaining 8 games (tough games @ARI, @DEN, STL and PIT) and have a great chance to end up at 14-2. Denver’s schedule isn’t overly challenging, but they play both the Patriots and Cincy and will probably also end up at 13-3 at worse and have a legit chance at 14-2. I feel like the Denver game is kind of must win if the Patriots want to have a lock on the first seed and end the season 14-2 or better. What are your thoughts?

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I think the wild card here is that as the weather gets worse it’s only going to exacerbate Peyton Manning’s inability to drive the ball. So you’ve got to wonder how much of a homefield advantage Denver will really even be for them. 

And also, we’re just hitting the halfway point of the season. There is so much football to be played, and unfortunately plenty of time for season-altering injuries. 

There will be a lot riding on the Pats-Broncos game and the matchup between Brady and the Denver D looks tantalizing. But imagine if it’s snowing or windy that game. Which team (and specially offense) will be better suited to deal with it? This is the game that Chandler Jones needs to dominate facing a third-string left tackle.

And the crazy part is will the Pats defensive gameplan flip from the last couple seasons where they dared the Broncos to run on them? This time around will the dare them to pass? I’m very curious.

All things being equal, the Patriots have the easiest schedule of the three top AFC teams. Doesn’t mean it will translate to the best record but they could still get the top seed even if they lose in Denver.

As it stands, Hightower, Collins and Chandler Jones’ contracts are all up at the end of the 2016 season (correct me if I’m wrong.) The Pats probably can’t keep all three so who’s the priority and what other players would you be willing to let go in order to keep as many of the three as possible (e.g. Mayo?)

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Got a couple about the vaunted 95/91/54 trio in the inbox this morning so let’s tackle that one first. You are correct, but the good news is that the free agent class this year has no real high-price guys. Here are some of the top free agents this offseason the Pats would need to re-sign.

1. Josh Kline – arguably the most improved player on the roster this season, he’s followed a familiar path of developing with the team for a few seasons before settling in as a starter. Still, with rookies Mason and Jackson, Kline isn’t a critical priority, but he’d round out a nice young trio with those two.

2. LeGarrette Blount – again, not a MUST RE-SIGN, but the Pats know how to maximize him. He would be replaceable if he walked.

3. Sealver Siliga – had his best game of the season last week, needs to keep building on that game. Either way, he’s affordable.

4. Nate Ebner – standout special teamer, affordable.

5. James Develin – again, affordable and after an IR season will be motivated to stay in NE.

6. Justin Coleman – just might be my biggest priority here. He’s been very solid as a rookie CB and fits the mold.

Other notables – Tarrell Brown, Tavon Wilson, Bryan Tyms, Rufus Johnson, Dae Fletcher.

Okay, you get the point. None of these guys is an “oh no what happens if we can’t keep that guy” type player. So for that reason I do think it’s possible that at least one of the 95/91/54 group gets extended before the 2016 season.

For me Collins and Hightower are the priorities. They’re two of the best linebackers in the game and we know how BB loves linebackers and what they mean to his defense. They fit perfectly in today’s NFL. 

If Chandler were to walk, and remember he has another entire season, the Pats drafted a potential replacement already in Tre Flowers. And they still have two more drafts to add another edge guy. RDE is a very hard position to find, so I still think they know they have Chandler in house, it makes sense to keep him.

The most interesting thing is that I’ve been writing this week that I feel like Chandler is the key to winning another Super Bowl. A dominant RDE has that kind of impact. But if Chandler does find consistent dominance and does help deliver another Super Bowl does that put him out of the Pats’ price range? Possibly.

Still, I think they have the cap space to retain all three and really, what else is there to spend your money on than the front seven? Lock up those three guys with McCourty/Brown/Easley and this defense has the right talent at all the right spots for at least another five years.

Submit a Question!

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Submit a Question!

It was a slow week for questions last week so let’s fix that today! Send me anything that’s Pats related and on your mind.

Some things I’m kicking around: What’s going on with Jabaal Sheard and Marcus Cannon’s “minor” injuries they suffered almost a month ago now?

Can Chandler Jones lead the Pats to another Super Bowl before his contract ends in 2017 and how it’s kind of a catch-22 because that would likely mean he outprices himself from New England?

How would the Pats match up with the Bengals? Ideally you really want that one seed to let Denver/Cinci fight it out in the divisional round while we take the Jets/Raiders/Colts.

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Friday!!

https://www.patspropaganda.com/friday/

A Few Patriots Bend Don’t Break Notes

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Hoping to get to a second All-22 breakdown today, this time of the offense, but in my stat review this week it seems like the Patriots defense is settling in as we hit the halfway point of the season.

I think the remarkable thing is how Belichick’s defenses always tend to exhibit similar characteristics and this one seemed to have “get it” pretty quick. Last year was somewhat the exception because of the quality of CB1. Nothing against the very solid job Malcolm Butler has done this year, but when you can have Revis eliminate a top threat it really has a major effect across the defense.

But this year the Patriots are playing some very good football, but it’s characterized as always by “bend don’t break”, which is considered a negative by a lot of Patriots fans, but I’m here to tell you, more teams should subscribe to it because it works.

The big key is the tackling by the Patriots secondary. You might beat them for a play but you’re not going to run and make it an even bigger play. They’ll tackle you where you catch it and then force you to keep executing to get into the end zone.

You might even break a run through their defensive line, but again, the secondary won’t let you get much further than that.

But what stands out most to me (and it’s related to tackling) is the yards-per-drive which is lower than it’s been since 2007.

Now all you “yeah but they haven’t played anybody good” people can settle down. You can only play who’s on your schedule and just because you aren’t playing Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr (?) every week doesn’t minimize what your defense has done well.

All I’m saying is the trends are pointing in the right direction. And as I continue to say, this team will go as far as Chandler Jones takes it. I hate to oversimplify it but it’s just about that simple. Hightower and Collins are great players, but stopping the good quarterbacks in the playoffs will be about Chandler winning his one-on-one matchups.

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robgronkwowski:

Gronk and Jules celebrating Gronk’s 47 yard TD

https://www.patspropaganda.com/robgronkwowski-gronk-and-jules-celebrating/