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Ranking the Threats to Patriots’ AFC Dominance

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All the best sportsbooks have the Patriots among the iron of the NFL, favored to once again be in the hunt for the Super Bowl. But much can change over the course of season and injuries, hot and cold streaks and other factors come into play.

As a Patriots blogger I have a pretty good sense of the teams that are on the right track to beat the Patriots. Here’s my list of the AFC teams that scare me most.

5. Baltimore Ravens: I’m not sure how much bearing we can put into the Patriots 2013 dismantling of the Ravens in Baltimore. Every game going back to 2007 had been fairly close until then, but I believed the Ravens would not be able to play the Patriots the same way without Ed Reed and Ray Lewis and I still think that is the case. The Ravens were one of the few teams that were never afraid of the Patriots, but without Lewis and Reed, they lost some of that. Still, the Ravens are well-run and will emerge from their defensive overhaul as the Pats did. The Ravens are similarly constructed and the result is (almost) always a physical contest that comes down to the end.

4. Miami Dolphins: Miami pulled out a win over the Pats last season, but, like the rest of the division, just can’t seem to pull off the upset in New England. Still, they have a promising young quarterback in Ryan Tannehill and with a re-built offensive line, New England won’t be able to get as blitz-happy against them this year.

3. New York Jets: Outside of a few Patriots blowouts, the Jets and Patriots almost always have close ones. The Pats are 2-3 in New York since 2009, though all anyone remembers is the ButtFumble. Rex Ryan’s defense was rebuilt on the fly and now has as promising of a front seven as any team in the NFL. They are another team unafraid of the Pats’ mystique. If their revamped offense can find it’s stride by the time the head to Foxboro in mid-October they could be primed to pull off an upset. They haven’t won in New England since the 2010 playoffs though they came within overtime of doing it in 2012.

2. Indianapolis Colts: It hasn’t looked like the Pats have much to fear from Andrew Luck in the first two times they faced him, including last year’s playoff game, but both contests were in Foxboro. Now the Pats must travel to Indianapolis, where the Colts are a different team.  Hakeem Nicks should help improve the offense with Reggie Wayne and if their offensive line fixes its problems, Luck should make some throws, even against the revamped Patriots secondary. This November 16th matchup could determine where the playoff rematch is played. The Pats will have their work cut out for them against a Colts team that will be looking to make a statement against them.

1. Denver Broncos: Who else would be number one? The Broncos handles the Pats in the AFC Championship and both teams had notable offseasons. However I think the Pats have the edge, or at least will have the edge by January. The Broncos depth is frightening, especially on defense. They have little margin for error and if Peyton Manning’s game declines (along with Wes Welker’s), the Broncos could be going the “old and slow” route to another disappointing playoff run. The Pats do have depth concerns of their own, but their ability to overcome injuries was well-documented in 2013, and there’s little chance New England sees that kind of attrition for a second season in a row.

how does the defense this year compare to the ones that won those super bowls going into the season (assume everyone is healthy)

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I guess we’ll find out, but on paper they seem to be the best defense they’ve fielded in an offseason since those days. I think the main difference is that you take some of the versatility and talent that the dynasty defenses had in their linebacking corps and put that into the cornerbacks.

It’s a different style of defense required these days. So if you put the dynasty front seven up against this front seven I don’t think the talent level is quite where it was when they peaked in 2004. 

What’s most interesting is that I’ve always subscribed to trying to re-build a similar front seven to get this defense back to where it needs to be. But this offseason the focus went to the defensive backs instead of investing in a third pass rusher like Julius Peppers, Demarcus Ware or Jared Allen.

The depth at linebacker is razor thin right now. Compare that to when you had Bruschi/Phifer/Johnson/Vrabel/Colvin/McGinest. Granted we’re comparing 3-4 to 4-3, but even with Ninkovich/Chandler classified as LBs with Mayo/Hightower/Collins, there’s still a noticeable dropoff.

I still believe this is the most reliable way to build a defense, with a great and deep front seven. What I took from the dynasty defense was that it didn’t really matter if you had the deepest and most talented secondary – if your front seven was consistently causing problems for the quarterback anyone could essentially do the coverage job.

Sure, they were much better off, and nearly impenetrable, when it was Ty Law and Tyrone Pool back there, but they did win a Super Bowl with rookie Asante Samuel and Randall Gay as well.

Now we’ll see if the reverse is true. Chandler and Ninkovich and whoever else is getting snaps at defensive end are good, but none are pure pass rushers. I have great hope for Easley, but he can’t do it all alone. We’ll probably see plenty of Chris Jones as well on the inside to get pressure.

So can the Pats talented array of cornerbacks stay healthy and productive all season long and buy the pass rush that extra second? Most especially in the playoffs when everything is on the line? That’s probably the biggest question facing the defense as a group this season.

Source: Vince Wilfork Limited In Return To Practice For Patriots OTAs | New England Patriots | NESN.com

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Source: Vince Wilfork Limited In Return To Practice For Patriots OTAs | New England Patriots | NESN.com

Good sign that Wilfork and Arrington are back out there after surgeries. Of course this still leaves us waiting to hear what the current status is on the other injured Pats – Tommy Kelly, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer and Gronk. Will Smith is another one.

Early versatility could prepare Logan Ryan for a move to safety | Sports – Patriots | providencejournal.com | The Providence Journa

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Early versatility could prepare Logan Ryan for a move to safety | Sports – Patriots | providencejournal.com | The Providence Journa

Good read on Logan Ryan, and I think when you look at the depth at safety, it’s understandable why they might want to expose him to the position this spring and summer. Far better now than after injuries hit and they’re left to scramble to find an answer.

Patriots Mini-Camps Start Today, Wide Receivers In Focus :Pats Pub

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Patriots Mini-Camps Start Today, Wide Receivers In Focus :Pats Pub

Thorough breakdown from Steve Balestrieri on the wide receivers headed to Pats camp. If nothing else, the Pats need progression from this group. One of last year’s rookie HAS to make a year two jump to take this offense to the next level. If they don’t we could be seeing a heavy dose of Brandon LaFell, not that there’s anything wrong with that.

We just don’t need another year of over-relying on Edelman. If Dobson progresses, it would make for a nice foursome of him, Edelman, Amendola and LaFell as the primary guys.

Do you think that one of the reasons Brady has struggled with the deep ball is because he doesn’t trust the person he’s throwing to like he did moss

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Well it’s certainly not hard to trust a player like Moss who is arguably the greatest vertical receiver in the history of the game. I don’t think the deep ball has ever been a strength of Brady’s, but of course the collection of receivers he’s had certainly don’t have that strength either.

Last year in the AFCCG he tossing up a long one to Matthew Slater of all people. You’d love to be able to challenge the deep part of the field and we’ll always see the Pats take shots from time to time to keep defenses honest. Hopefully Dobson can develop and stretch things vertically a bit.

But I don’t think the Pats view the deep ball as an integral part of a successful attack. Their offensive success over the last decade despite near-continuous turnover bears it out.

The most important thing is playing to Brady’s historic strengths – reading the defense and making the right throw on the money.