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A Patriots fans’ Super Bowl Prop Bets

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As a Patriots fan it will be hard to watch the Super Bowl without throwing things at the screen, especially knowing that we beat both of these teams. Yes, the Pats throttled the Steelers in Pittsburgh and squeaked out a meaningless home win over the Matt Flynn-led Packers, but that’s really not making any of us feel any better about the “incident” a couple weeks ago.

Of course when your team’s not playing there’s really only one way to have any fun, and that’s to bet on a lot of meaningless junk that may or may not happen during the eight hours it takes to play a Super Bowl.

This year you can find a line on just about anything from who wins the opening coin toss, to what color the coaches Gatorade bath will be, to who the MVP thanks first (and if it’s Big Ben all bets are off).

Yes, they’ve thought of just about everything. Well, not quite everything.

So instead of just giving you my expert Super Bowl pick I’d like to lay out some odds that I think the odds-makers have missed. And as someone who’s seen both these teams up close, I think I’m qualified.

SUPER BOWL PROPS VIA PATSPROPAGANDA.COM

Clay Matthews gets that crazy look in his eye: -1000

TV shot of Maurkice Pouncey on the sidelines with his leg in a cast, looking sad: -200

Mention of the Patriots wins over the Steelers and/or Packers: +500

Mention/highlights of Tom Brady during his 2010 MVP season: NO LINE

Joe Buck makes awkward conversation about Big Ben’s “off the field issues”: -200

Troy Aikman agrees with him: NO LINE

You think they’re gonna sack Big Ben, but then they don’t sack him: -1000000

Troy Polamalu’s hair whips around: +1000 (straight from the Head and Shoulders money, baby)

You think for a second that Ryan Clark and/or James Harrison might’ve just killed someone: -200

Aaron Rodgers suddenly has strange new facial hair after halftime: +200

Clay Matthews unleashes an FU sack on Big Ben for all the drunk college girls across America: -500

Shot of Mike McCarthy looking befuddled and/or chubby: even

Rex Ryan predicts the Jets will still win the Super Bowl before kickoff: -200

Theme song from Shaft suddenly starts playing as Mike Tomlin’s theme music: +500

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NFL Players Association Executive Director DeMaurice Smith and Commissioner Roger Goodell met today in New York to discuss a range of issues related to a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. As part of a process to intensify negotiations, they agreed to hold a formal bargaining session with both negotiating teams on Saturday in the Dallas area. They also agreed to a series of meetings over the next few weeks, both formal bargaining sessions and smaller group meetings, in an effort to reach a new agreement by early March.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/nfl-players-association-executive-director/

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Patriots coach Bill Belichick was a busy guy in the AFC locker room after the game, shaking hands with players, and saying goodbye to players for who knows how long, given the uncertainty of the labor situation.

It was interesting to watch him head over to Logan Mankins, and have a chat with his pending unrestricted agent offensive lineman.

Belichick stood there for a while, and did most of the talking. Perhaps he was talking about what the Pats had in mind for Mankins and a contract. Maybe he was telling his left guard the team wanted to see what happened with the CBA before making any contract offers. Just a guess.

I approached Mankins following the chat, to see if he would fill me in on some of the details. All he would say was that it was “a nice talk,” and he and Belichick ”always have nice talks.”

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-coach-bill-belichick-was-a-busy-guy-in/

Reiss: Patriots should think outside the system

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Reiss: Patriots should think outside the system

Reiss finally has the numbers up for how much the Patriots were in the 3-4 and sub packages and the numbers aren’t too surprising (Sub Package: 57%, 3-4: 40%, Goaline: 3%).

This is all well charted territory in these parts. For the second year in a row the ultimate question is will the Pats be less rigid with their 3-down player rules when drafting in the 1st/2nd round. Last year he had visions of Jerry Hughes (who ended up not doing much for the Colts) and this year there are similar comparisons with Von Miller (who will probably be long gone by 17).

What can be maddening is that this seems like a no brainer. The DPR position in sub packages was a rotating door with Jermaine Cunningham and Shawn Crable before Eric Moore was picked up in early December and made the biggest impact of them all. Like a third corner the DPR should be considered effectively a starter and it seems like a slam dunk for the Pats to use a high pick on someone who might not have the physical size that BB prefers, but someone in the 6’ 2" range that can fly off the edge.

One player that I like right now in this area is Jeremy Beal from Oklahoma, who’s just a shade shorter than Cunningham, but still looked solid against the run in the Senior Bowl. He might not be 6’ 4" but he explodes off the line like no current Patriots do.

Beal could still project as an eventual OLB in the 3-4, as you can see in the video below he played in space at OU.

Fascinating NYT Patriots article: How Belichick Wins With Spare Parts

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Not quite sure how I missed this article from a few weeks ago but it is a definite must-read. The author put together a formula to determine the average draft slot of offensive players for each Super Bowl winner and 2010 playoff teams. 

The results? The three Super Bowl winning Patriots teams had three of the bottom four rankings. This year’s 2010 Patriots had by far the lowest score of the twelve playoff teams. So in a nut shell, the average Patriots offensive players are drafted far lower than any other good team in the NFL. And before you point this out as the reason they haven’t won a Super Bowl in the last six seasons let’s remember that this offense was light years better than everyone else in the regular season. So remember to temper your criticism through that. 

As the Patriots add more high round picks in 2011 they should only get more talented, and hopefully even harder to stop.

Here’s how they sum the 2010 Pats up…

The Patriots led the N.F.L. in points scored. They threw the most touchdowns passes. They committed fewer turnovers than any other team since the adoption of the 16-game schedule. They ranked second in rushing touchdowns and in net yards per pass attempt. And yet, as we’ve described, they are almost entirely powered by late-round and undrafted players. So how does Belichick turn an offense that appears marginal on paper into a dominant unit?

Tom Brady is the obvious reason, but New England’s offense has been less explosive with more talented teams during the Brady era. Even though Brady’s probably playing the best football of his career right now, the offense’s success is about more than the quarterback. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Belichick is both a master of the draft, finding gems with late-round picks, and a fantastic coach in the truest sense of the word, able to turn young men into elite players with his tireless attention to detail.

I’d argue it goes a step further than that. The Patriots, for the first time in the past few seasons, have regained a level of organizational clarity that few teams can match. When Scott Pioli and Belichick built the championship Patriots teams at the beginning of the decade, New England consistently added “their guys,” players who fit the Patriot profile. With the drafting of Hernandez and Gronkowski, and the re-acquisition of Branch, to go along with Welker and Brady, the Patriots are back to finding players who, first and foremost, fit their system. Green-Ellis, Woodhead and Branch wouldn’t succeed on a lot of teams, but Belichick knows exactly what he wants out of every roster spot and only looks for players who possess those traits. And that’s a big secret of his success.